Another Year and Another Official Lineup

 I may be overthinking this one, but Andrew Scott is my NGNG prediction for a last minute nomination. Although I should say this is dependent on a few things, and it could easily be Wright. But thinking in terms of last minute momentum All of Us Strangers could come off the strongest relatively, getting a last minute push at BAFTA, to not become a huge player but enough for Scott to get in. This also requires in part for Wright to snubbed at SAG in favor of Colman Domingo, the latter whose film is too weak I think to get him beyond SAG. But if Wright gets in SAG, that will probably be enough for it just to be the SAG five likely, though I still think Scott has a chance even then as long as Strangers performs to its apex at BAFTA...which I still think will be a 2 nominations probably Oscar time, but enough theoretically. Now at the moment it seems like we have a clear seven probably, in the pictured five, Wright and Domingo. Domingo being the weakest chance because Rustin's only other possible nomination is song, so I think Domingo can get SAG but that's probably it for him. American Fiction could be a big player or a minor player, so again the variation there allows for Scott to move in. Then there's the rest, who all seem safe-ish as long as their films don't under-perform massively. Could Giamatti get Sidewaysed again? Sure, but seems unlikely at this venture. DiCaprio doesn't miss unless he has internal competition (Waltz, Day-Lewis) if his film is in the top five, so for him to miss Killers would need to stop under-performing severely...like say Scorsese misses DGA which doesn't seem too likely. Then there's Cooper, there is a Maestro backlash brewing, but I don't think that will stop his nomination, it might play into the win, but not the nomination. Then Murphy is the lauded lead, who career wise has paid his dues, and is in the best picture front-runner, no reason to doubt him. 

I decided to not overthink supporting actor, as long as we see this five at SAG, there is no reason to second guess it. The broadly comic pair of Gosling and Ruffalo are both well liked by the academy in films that look like they should be big hits there. As the villainous pair of Roberts, Downey and De Niro both seem set to return as well. Downey as the potential winner (though I think this category is open until the SAG winner) in the best picture front-runner, then De Niro in a major player, with the DiCaprio supporting actor boon trend as well to help cement his position. With maybe the exception of De Niro, even if their films under-perform massively, it would be hard to see them missing the final five. Then there's Charles Melton, whose film's performance could go big or small. Even if it is the latter, I could see Melton as the sole nominee, even though currently his trajectory is very similar to the eventually snubbed Dennis Quaid for Far From Heaven (who also did great with the critics and he got a SAG nomination). What helps Melton perhaps avoid that fate, other than the much individual support he's gotten, is that there really isn't obvious alternatives without major shifts happening. If Poor Things, over-performs, then Dafoe can enter the conversation a bit more, if the Holdovers over-performs, maybe Dominic Sessa could make it (though I think being obviously co-lead hurts him), but if the race remains consistent this seems like an easy five to predict. Sterling K. Brown has also been bandied about a bit for American Fiction, though I think his role might be a bit too comparatively small to get in past any of these five, who have all substantial screentime, where his role is more so the type that gets in, in a thinner year. This year is stacked with these five, and I'll be pretty content with predicting them unless SAG and BAFTA do something really unexpected to shift momentum...however that doesn't seem overly likely. And yes Glenn Howerton has peaked with his critics nominations and Indie Spirit nomination...unless he wants to tell me when he'll peak.