This year lead actor just seems set to these five, and it is difficult to argue out any of them particularly the top four of Chalamet, Domingo, Brody and Fiennes. All four have films with some other support, all have shown up consistently in precursors so far, it seems right in terms of how the performances fit in their careers, they just seem right. Craig is the easy #5 in terms of predictions mainly because he'd in all likelihood be a sole nominee, and he's one of three A24 has to get in (along with Brody and Domingo). But playing a real person, in an against type performance, after a long career, Craig seems right too, and has shown up most places so far as well. If this is the SAG five there is no reason to doubt it. The only spoilers I can envision at the moment are Sebastian Stan and Jesse Eisenberg. Stan has a problem because both of his performances are well respected and have received recognition leaving him in a strange position. I'd say IF he can show up for just one for SAG then it changes the whole game and he can get backed for that performance but SAG voters would need to makeup their mind so Oscar can. And I'm not predicting that due to his internal vote splitting. Eisenberg I only see if A Real Pain goes further than expected, because he already seems extremely likely for screenplay, maybe producing as well so a third nomination doesn't seem like something voters will feel obligated to do. Furthermore it is the less showy performance than his frauding co-lead, and far less showy than his competition in this category. Anything can happen of course but I do feel very confident in this five even before SAG.
Supporting on the other hand does feel trickier. Culkin and Pearce seem like very safe bets based on their early support and the support for their films. Washington has only missed, when in contention, for American Gangster, so it is hard to bet against the guy who could get in relatively easily for a Shakespearean performance or could get in for an overall flop like Roman J. Israel, Esq. He has an extremely showy role, and while Gladiator II is unlikely to be a major contender, it will be a contender for a few techs, so he probably won't be a sole nominee. Edward Norton getting enough late ink, along with a Complete Unknown seeming a possible best picture nominee, makes him seem like the veteran supporting actor to get in with his co-star. Helps also that he's the only one playing a real person out of the actors in possible best picture nominees, which is always a boon. Well actually except for Clarence Maclin who is playing...Clarence Maclin a fictionalized version of himself. Something that I do ponder has kept him from getting in a few places and could create enough hesitation to keep him out. As much as he has a great personal narrative, Sing Sing, doesn't seem like it will be a top five contender, maybe could even miss the top ten in the end, so I wouldn't be truly surprised if he loses out. Although I won't fully bet against him even if he misses SAG as I could see a pure passion push potentially still getting him in last minute. Otherwise, hanging around is Yura Borisov, who like Maclin could get in later particularly due to potential overall passion even if he misses SAG. Also hanging around still is like Stanley Tucci, but for him to ride along with Fiennes I think he needed to be a little more consistent already in his appearances so far. Also possible is Jeremy Strong, coming off Succession, a Tony win leading to an Oscar nomination seems like something that could happen, particularly if maybe he and Stan could drum up some momentum together...but I think he could also do it alone. Still being a sole nominee in all likelihood makes me lean away from him.

















