Saturday 20 May 2023

Alternate Best Actor 2009

And the Nominees Were Not:

Ricardo Darin in Secret in Their Eyes

Ben Whishaw in Bright Star

Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man

Song Kang-ho in Thirst

Stephen McHattie in Pontypool

Predict these five, those five or both:

Tahar Rahim in A Prophet

Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Nowhere Boy

Ben Foster in The Messenger

Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun

Paul Giamatti in Cold Souls

81 comments:

Matt Mustin said...

I will say one thing to people predicting. Don't underestimate McHattie.

1. Song
2. McHattie
3. Whishaw
4. Stuhlbarg
5. Darin

1. Holbrook
2. Rahim
3. Foster
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Emi Grant said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Robert MacFarlane said...

1. Stuhlbarg
2. McHattie
3. Song
4. Darin
5. Whishaw

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Taylor-Johnson
5. Giamatti

Razor said...

1. Stuhlbarg
2. Darin
3. McHattie
4. Song
5. Whishaw

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Anonymous said...

I may have missed it, but how would you rank this year’s animated feature nominees, and what is your reasoning behind each?

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

1. Stuhlbarg
2. McHattie
3. Whishaw
4. Song
5. Darin

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Luke Higham said...

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Films To Watch
Red Riding Trilogy
The Take
Emma
Grey Gardens
Wuthering Heights
Prayers For Bobby
Public Enemies (Re-Watch for Marion Cotillard)
Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince (Re-Watch for Michael Gambon)
Hamlet (David Tennant)
Caesar And Cleopatra (Christopher Plummer)
The Princess And The Frog
The Secret Of Kells
9
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
The Blind Side
Julie & Julia
The Hangover
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo/The Girl Who Played With Fire/The Girl Who Kicked The Hornets' Nest
The White Ribbon
Dogtooth
Broken Embraces
Ajami
Antichrist
Mother
About Elly
The Maid
Vincere
City Of Life And Death
Red Cliff Part II
OSS 117: Lost In Rio
Kaminey
Skin
Everyone Else
The Milk Of Sorrow
Where The Wild Things Are
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
World's Greatest Dad
Big Fan
The Young Victoria
Sin Nombre
Air Doll
Lebanon
Away We Go
Enter The Void
Drag Me To Hell
Looking For Eric
Goodbye Solo
Sugar
35 Shots Of Rum
Five Minutes Of Heaven
The Misfortunates
My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done
Agora
Mr. Nobody
Black Dynamite
Polytechnique
Tetro
The Boat That Rocked
Cell 211
Adam
Police, Adjective
The Time That Remains
The Wind Journeys
Baarìa
Vengeance
Father Of My Children
The Vicious Kind
Coco Before Chanel
Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky
Nothing Personal
The Limits Of Control
Undertow
Micmacs
Breathless
Adventureland
Whip It
Hachi: A Dog's Tale
It's Complicated
The International
I Killed My Mother
Orphan
Bunny And The Bull
Jennifer's Body
The Proposal
Observe And Report
Knowing (Ebert's #6 of the year)
I Love You, Man
The Men Who Stare At Goats
Bruno
Triangle
The House Of The Devil
Occult
Macabre
Merantau
Notorious
Fish Story
The Hedgehog
Lourdes

Perfectionist said...

1. Stuhlbarg
2. Whishaw
3. McHattie
4. Song
5. Darin

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Taylor-Johnson
5. Giamatti

Anonymous said...

VarunakaJohnSmith

1. Stuhlbarg
2. Song
3. Whishaw
4. Mchattie
5. Darin

1. Holbrook
2. Foster
3. Rahim
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Maciej said...

1.Song
2.Stuhlbarg
3.Whishaw
4.Darin
5.McHattie

1.Rahim
2.Foster
3.Holbrook
4.Giamatti
5.Taylor-Johnson

Calvin Law said...

Let's see how this goes.

1. Darin
2. McHattie
3. Song
4. Whishaw
5. Stuhlbarg

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Taylor-Johnson
4. Holbrook
5. Giamatti

First lineup is *much* stronger than the second imo (I found Holbrook and Giamatti's films chores to get through).

Robert MacFarlane said...

Louis: How far are you along with The Great?

RujK said...

My guesses would be:
1. Stuhlbarg
2. Song
3. Whishaw
4. McHattie
5. Darin

and

1. Foster
2. Rahim
3. Holbrook
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Tony Kim said...

Louis: Do you plan to see How to Blow Up a Pipeline and A Thousand and One anytime soon?

Your top 10 funniest moments in dramatic TV shows?

Shaggy Rogers said...

1. Stuhlbarg
2. Song
3. Whishaw
4. McHattie
5. Darin

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Taylor-Johnson
5. Giamatti

RatedRStar said...

1. Darin
2. McHattie
3. Song
4. Whishaw
5. Stuhlbarg

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Taylor-Johnson
4. Holbrook
5. Giamatti

Robert MacFarlane said...

For Supporting, I have a lot of suggestions on possible upgrades:

Fred Melamed and Adam Arkin in A Serious Man
Daniel Bruhl in Inglourious Basterds
David Rasche in In the Loop
Stanley Tucci in Julie and Julia

8000S said...

1. Song
2. McHattie
3. Stuhlbarg
4. Whishaw
5. Darin

1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Holbrook
4. Giamatti
5. Taylor-Johnson

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Robert: I asked Louis about Melamed getting an upgrade and he'll likely receive one.

Lucas Saavedra said...

Louis: what are your ratings and thoughts on the rest of the cast of The Day the Earth Caught Fire and where would you rank Edward Judd?

Mitchell Murray said...

So I did finally watch "The Messanger" after all this time, and I did like it enough. The core premise of portraying the casualty notification service is well done. The second half of the film was less effective for me, and that's mainly because it deviates from that subject. None of it was terrible, and the romance with Morton was surprisingly convincing, but some scenes were definitely better than others. The pacing is a touch uneven as well.

Foster - 4.5 (Sort of an early career prelude to his "Leave No Trace" performance. Would be surprised if he gets a 5, though.)

Morton - 4.5 (Shared MVP with Foster)

Harrelson - 4 (I agree with Louis that his out of uniform scenes are weaker, and I did think Stone's off duty antics were a little unneeded/repetitive. Still, it's a solid turn and based on his 2000s output, I can see why people wanted to nominate him here.)

Malone - 3 (Not much of role, which sadly seems to be a consistent thing for her.)

Buscemi - 3 (Small part, but a decent showing.)

Louis Morgan said...

Robert:

Just finished Episode 4.

Tony:

I mean sooner than later.

1. Connor's Eulogy for Mo - Succession
2. Star Trek Eating Contest - Breaking Bad
3. Paulie's picture - The Sopranos
4. "There they are Albert Faces of Stone" - Twin Peaks The Return
5. I love you Sheriff Truman - Twin Peaks
6. Principles - Succession
7. Curb Your Enthusiasm - The Sopranos
8. Cousin Gregg's testimony before congress - Succession
9. Car Lady - Twin Peaks: The Return
10. Ted/Huell/Kuby - Breaking Bad

Lucas:

Judd - 3.5(He actually doesn't give a bad performance as he certainly hits the general emotional marks and such. He just doesn't have the needed charisma for this to be the guy you want to follow for this kind of film. Seems like a guy who should show up for a scene or two, and you can see contrasting say Bates in 61, where Judd lacks that movie star presence and it shows. Despite acting wise being decent but not great.)

Munro - 3(Quite striking to see her in this role as I've only ever known her for her Disney work, so to see her so steamy, both literally and metaphorically, was something else. Either way though she's wholly fine beyond the sensual qualities of her work.)

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

1. Darin
2. Stuhlbarg
3. McHattie
4. Song
5. Whishaw


1. Rahim
2. Foster
3. Taylor-Johnson
4. Holbrook
5. Giamatti

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Considering the enormity of the list, for now I'd suggest only Red Riding Trilogy from TV.

Tony Kim said...

Slightly underwhelmed by tonight's Barry, not gonna lie. A fair bit of it felt like filler, particularly the Fast & Furious scene, which was amusing in theory but just didn't add much. In retrospect more of a "bridge" episode that works to bring the plot threads together, with the writers protracting scenes more than usual in order to kill time. I can also see Hader and co. straining harder than usual to contrive a specific plot point, with how easily Barry manages to get out of his condition.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Succession was phenomenal in really bringing the true follow-up to 'Connor's Wedding'. Astounding work by all in just showing the sheer depth and complexity of grief, especially even more impressive after the election episode which had all the characters at their worst.

Culkin's best performance on the show (and I think he's probably a lock for the Lead Actor Emmy at this point). Strong, Cromwell and Snook also fantastic.

Louis Morgan said...

I quite enjoyed the Noho Hank stuff in Barry, otherwise the episode I think successfully set the pieces for the finale. However, I will say from all of this, unless the finale changes something substantially, the time jump isn't something I think was earned or even necessary (as the kid is such a non-character anyways). I think really you could've done it as a *one year* thing, and it also would've felt less sadistic towards Sally...although really I think they should've designed something differently for her on a fundamental level for this season.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I just... fucking HATE what they've done to Sally. Yes, she's an incredibly flawed character, but this arc they have her on is needlessly cruel and undeserved. She doesn't deserve Hell! Even if the finale some how sticks the landing, it's enough for me to declare this easily the worst season of the show.

Glenn said...

Luke, who do you predict to win Best Actress.

Luke Higham said...

Glenn: Kim Hye-Ja in Mother or Golshifteh Farahani in About Elly. I predict Mulligan, Cornish and Gainsbourg to round out the top 5.

Shaggy Rogers said...

Luke: And who do you predict to win Best Supporting Actress.

Luke Higham said...

Shaggy: I think Mo'Nique will retain.

RatedRStar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
RatedRStar said...

RIP Ray Stevenson

I actually recently watched The Three Musketeers for a laugh because a friend said it was so bad it was funny and it was but, Stevenson and Matthew Macfadyen actually are quite good and I would have loved to see them in a proper version of the story.

Luke Higham said...

RIP Ray Stevenson

Damn, I remember really liking him in Rome.

RatedRStar said...

Small a role as he had I actually liked him in King Arthur as well actually, the supporting performers stole the show in that dreary film

Calvin Law said...

Succession penultimate episode was amazing. Agreed with Tahmeed on all counts. Wanted to single out just how affecting the Jess/Kendall scene was, how surprisingly potent that scene with the women in Logan's wives was, and so many beautiful little touches like Connor ruminating over the grave, Frank and Karl's words of comfort to Shiv, and Tom's outburst of emotion, to go alongside the incredibly crafted and acted eulogies, Cromwell knocking it right out the park, Culkin and Snook delivering such devastating breakdowns and Strong being so incredibly terrifying.

Calvin Law said...

RIP Ray Stevenson

Matt Mustin said...

RIP Ray Stevenson. Shocking to hear.

Louis Morgan said...

RIP Ray Stevenson

Louis Morgan said...

Succession on the other hand was altogether amazing. Agreed with every word by Calvin and Tahmeed. I'll just add, I can now see exactly what the finale is set to be in terms of the stakes, though I have no idea where it will go, so I am quite eager to see how it will all turn out.

Tony Kim said...

RIP Ray Stevenson.

Louis: Interesting thoughts on Barry. I somewhat agree on the son, but I have a feeling Hader has a hidden card up his sleeve regarding that character.

What would you like to have seen happened to Sally instead this season?

Matthew Montada said...

Everyone: thoughts on the trailer for The Color Purple (2023)? I think it looks amazing. Especially from a visual standpoint.

Tony Kim said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the intervention scene from The Sopranos?

Calvin Law said...

Louis: thoughts on the Logans' wives/mistresses scene in this episode of Succession? One of my favourite scenes from this season just in terms of how unexpectedly powerful it was.

Matthew: I think it looks pretty solid, especially looking forward to Henson's performance.

Tim said...

Matthew: honestly, i don't need to see that. I like the original a lot am always hesitant when it comes to remakes of films i like.

The trailer didn't reall show off the musical aspect and all throughout i couldn't help but be reminded of the original.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I watched Casino last night. I forgot, what was Louis’s rating for Stone? Because she was actually the only thing I really liked in it.

BRAZINTERMA said...

5Âş Song Kang-ho
4Âş Stephen McHattie
3Âş Ben Whishaw
2Âş Michael Stuhlbarg
1Âş Ricardo DarĂ­n

5Âş Paul Giamatti
4Âş Hal Holbrook
3Âş Aaron Taylor-Johnson
2Âş Ben Foster
1Âş Tahar Rahim

Louis Morgan said...

Tony:

Something else, though I would never want a show to do exactly what I "want" so to speak, as seeing something unfold is part of the joy. But what I've seen so far, what they did wasn't a choice I liked. And I'll be honest, I don't think Hader and co. knew what to do with Sally given how quickly she went back to LA after going home, which feels like an abandoned plotline/idea when you do such an instant backtrack.

Matthew:

Looks a bit glossy given the subject matter, but I guess it's a musical...

Tony:

That is a hilarious scene with just every line being a complete devolving of any order or any good sense. From how petty everyone gets instantly, to decorum almost immediately breaking down, also just Silvio's testimony is just hilarious in every way as is the whole excuses about the flu getting everything off track.

Robert:

I'm not crazy about her performance, but nor I am crazy about anything regarding Casino.

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

I agreed a surprising moment, a surprisingly heartfelt moment, particularly as it appears to be just cattiness from Caroline at first then becomes a genuine bonding moment between Marcia and Kerry after their brutal interaction last time. Also a fun inside gag with Cox's actual wife playing Caroline's "Kerry".

Tony Kim said...

Matthew: Louis nailed it when he said that it seems too "glossy", and I'll add add that none of the performances stood out to me much. Looked pretty flat to me visually, too. But then again, it's not much of a sample to judge from.

Louis: I have to clarify, I'm not necessarily defending Sally's arc this season by asking you that question, I think there's validity to the points you and Robert raised. I can see why you would feel the return to LA felt abrupt but I could roll with it due to the insight the detour gave us into her character. As for her current state, I guess we just simply evaluate Sally as a character slightly differently. She's possibly my favourite character on the show, but the vicious streak to her personality stands out to me in a way that makes her arc a bit more appropriate (not quite the word I'm looking for) compared to if something equivalent had happened to, say, Kim Wexler. But I agree that a work of art shouldn't do exactly what the viewer wants, and that there is joy in seeing surprises unfold.

On an unrelated note, thoughts on this short film by Scorsese? https://vimeo.com/124586811

8000S said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the scene from Dredd where Anderson senses something in Dredd.

By the way, have you ever read any Judge Dredd comic?

8000S said...

Louis: Also thoughts on the scene where Dredd throws Ma-Ma's right-hand man off the balcony.

RatedRStar said...

RIP Tina Turner

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

RIP Tina Turner

Tim said...

R.I.P. Tina Turner

Luke Higham said...

RIP Tina Turner

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

RIP Tina Turner.

Robert MacFarlane said...

RIP Tina Turner. Sort of like when Bowie died, she was one where I deluded myself into thinking that someone might just live forever. There are some icons you consider a constant.

Tony Kim said...

RIP Tina Turner.

Michael McCarthy said...

1. Ricardo Darin
2. Stephen McHattie
3. Michael Stuhlbarg
4. Song Kang-ho
5. Ben Whishaw

8000S said...

R.I.P. Tina Turner.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on all the eulogies from the latest Succession episode?

Tony Kim said...

Louis: Your thoughts on Robert Richardson's cinematography for Casino, and Joe Pesci's acting in his final scene?

Robert MacFarlane said...

Hot take of mine, but that was Pesci's only good scene. Thought it was a really lazy performance from him. It needed one of the three Dennises (Franz, Farina, Hopper) to play that role.

Louis Morgan said...

Tony:

Scorsese talking about film is a joy always, as his passion for it is just oozing out of him. He's not a director who has any sort of misplaced shame about what he does, he loves films, he loves their existence he loves the history of the artform. And you see that in this experiment of his, which is SO beautifully done. It doesn't just look like Hitchcock, it looks nearly like the best of Hitchcock, I'd say just some of the effect compositions are *slightly* off (and hey pre-Serious man Michael Stuhlbarg!) however I can forgive that as I imagine it wasn't the most highly budgeted effort. This is to the point I wish there was another Scorsese just to do a full Hitchcock.

I mean it's still Richardson + Scorsese, so it is well shot, though I really think he largely took the aesthetic he used in JFK and proceeded to largely reused those ideas here. But hey it works I think in contrast to Goodfellas here (though I think most of the film suffers horribly in this contrast) by being more glitzy and frankly just shiny as this side of the gangster world that is more about a phony veneer.

Nicky's death scene I do entirely like, first the complete and really hilarious randomness of Nicky getting interrupted mid-narration and Frank Vincent finally getting to dish out some poetic justice after both Raging Bull and Goodfellas is a nice meta dish. And I think here you overall get such brutality in the death and really the extension of the "oh no" from Goodfellas, as a man realizes his whole life of brutality has lead only to his own death. And Pesci is terrific in the scene because you get his intensity of course, but he's honestly moving though, which Pesci being able to accomplish that makes it great, as you really see how heartbroken he is over his brother's death, particularly in his somber and really direct plea while his brother is still breathing for mercy. And Pesci showing Nicky basically falling into just a heartbroken brother is honestly affecting.

8000's:

Interesting potential character building, that we never got due to lack of sequels, but how you do setup something by suggesting it, but not getting into it in the moment. I have not read any Dredd. The throwing off is you see really Dredd's uncompromising manner as he just bluntly does the throw and really is shot as a villain would be in the moment, and you see no hesitation nor even attempt for any bargaining power.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Ewan is kind of a brilliantly designed character, as theoretically he could've been the voice of reason/morality, but he goes about it with such self-righteousness (while being a total hypocrite by having profited from Logan's "meagerness") who is just as uncaring (in fact maybe even more so in many moments) than Logan in terms of personal interaction, that you can never take him as such. And you actually get that with his speech, as he's telling the truth of his brother, both what defined Logan and how he went about his success in questionable ways. There is honesty in his emotion and care, but he's still a hypocrite as he says in his opening he's not going to judge Logan then proceeds to judge him in speech, even propping himself up with "At least I tried" despite even in his interaction with Greg, he acted as coldly as possible to, and certainly didn't "try" to be a family to him, even a family trying to teach his grandson a lesson. So in other words a brilliantly performed scene, that is so essentially that character, while showing both the conflict between the brothers but still a sense of connection somewhere in there.

Kendall's is the speechmaker again and I love again he stumbles about a bit then finds his groove and just goes off into a strange success. His speech though complicated by his own relationship theoretically in the start, we see him really toss it, through that we see him less so as remembering his father, but rather the salesman of his legacy, and really of the very notion of his father's business choices. Kendall essentially becoming the salesman of capitalism itself.

And with Shiv's, essentially you see her struggle with the very personal notion of what her father was to her as this conflict throughout the whole speech and not a single part of it is purely love or hate, rather this just sense of the complications of her grief by the complications of how she can't quite quantify exactly what her father was to her.

Anyways, amazing writing and acting, each time.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Have you finished The Great?

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Your thoughts on Roman's breakdown at the funeral? Found Culkin's change of voice/timbre back to a traumatized child especially heartwrenching.

Michael McCarthy said...

1. Tahar Rahim
2. Hal Holbrook
3. Paul Giamatti
4. Ben Foster
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson

8000S said...

Louis: Your thoughts on this SNL monologue by good ol' Brendan Gleeson?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e22S93yktIs

Shaggy Rogers said...

Hey Louis and guys.
Let's take bets in the dark and see who the winners of the 2023 Cannes Film Festival will be this weekend.

Palme d'Or: Four Daughters
Best Director: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Best Actor: Jude Law - Firebrand
Best Actress:: Sandra HĂĽller - Anatomy of a Fall
Best Screenplay: Monster

Anonymous said...

Any film that has a 45% on RT is definitely not gonna win Best Actor at Cannes lol.

Tony Kim said...

Louis: Your thoughts on Siskel & Ebert's review of Casino? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A9u0ZSnXFU

Tony Kim said...

Bonus fun fact about Key to Reserva: It, along with The Man Who Knew Too Much, were sources of inspiration for the opera house sequence in Rogue Nation.

Calvin Law said...

My Cannes predictions:

Palme d'Or - The Zone of Interest
Grand Prix - May December
Jury - Fallen Leaves
Best Director - Alice Rohrwacher, La Chimera
Best Actor - Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Actress - Sandra HĂĽller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Screenplay - About Dry Grasses

Luke Higham said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your first Oscar predictions for Picture, Director and Acting with your reasons why.

Louis Morgan said...

Robert:

Not quite.

Tahmeed:

Great acting by Culkin more than anything as he made it feel entirely honest as really the boy suddenly realizing the death of his father fully, after all being the son, despite being the beaten one, never truly hated his dad in anyway, and we see unfiltered grief in all its messiness.

8000's:

Kind of an interesting approach, though you can tell he was nervous but I think he did it well by largely kind of subverting the typical expectation to basically give a fatherly chat with a bit of music. Other than the bit of Banshees with Farrell which was amusing.

Tony:

I agree with Siskel, who I think fairly outlines what he likes and for me what also does work for me but also what isn't great about the film. But I also do understand Ebert, and while I am baffled by anyone who prefers the film to Goodfellas, Ebert outlines effectively the appeal it can have, even if I don't agree.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Picture:

Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Maestro
The Color Purple
Dune Part 2
Past Lives
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Killer
The Zone of Interest

Killers has made its name. Oppenheimer as long as it delivers as Nolan is on the academy radar. Maestro is getting a lot of buzz and Cooper is well liked, though it could be one that falls apart. It helped though by the fact that Tar didn't win anything strangely enough. The Color Purple I think could be a flop (both ways) but if not I think it could get in there. Dune because they went with LOTR every time with fewer slots, so why not. Past Lives has all the praise it needs, and seems to have a lot of appeal. Poor Things looks very weird, but with EEAO winning I think anything can be considered these days. Saltburn I am weary of only because follow-ups can fall apart (hello The Son) but here's hoping Fennell does the repeat. Fincher is also always on the Academy's radar these days, so if The Killer great, why not. Zone of Interest has all the praise, it has some hurdles though but could be the potential "foreign" pick this year.

Director:

Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Bradley Coooper - Maestro
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Celine Song - Past Lives

Scorsese and Nolan would need there to be a whole bunch of amazing pushes, as long as the latter's film delivers. Cooper missed last time but I think that could add to his push if Maestro bests A Star is Born. Glazer & Song both currently have intense praise, we'll see if other newcomers though come along to squeeze away from it, but at the moment they seem viable.

Actor:

Bradley Cooper - Maestro (Winner)
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

Could easily be just *it* for Cooper if the film delivers on all fronts. If there is a time for Murphy to get in, this would be it. DiCaprio has the reviews, far more so than Don't Look Up, so I think he's a very strong bet even at this point. Rustin I think could flop because of Wolfe's track record however if it delivers, or even semi-delivers, seems like he could get a push plus has the potential for a banner year with three live action performances all in films of a decent profile. Keoghan's red-hot, if the film is in play he definitely will be.

Louis Morgan said...

Actress:

Annette Bening - Nyad (Winner)
Greta Lee - Past Lives
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Nyad could be nothing, but if it anything, it could be the one to push for Bening's career win. Lee seems where the acting love would be the easiest to go for Past Lives. Mulligan I think they're saying is lead, depending on how that is in the film and shakes out, can still be enough for the nomination. If I'm putting "Color" in picture Barrino ought to be there. Huller has a banner year already, if she wins CANNES that helps, she still has a big hurdle, and could split her own votes, but if they campaign her right I think she could use both films to her advantage.

Supporting Actor:

Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson (Winner)
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Benny Safdie - Oppenheimer
Jesse Plemons - Killers of the Flower Moon
Willem Dafoe - Poor Things

Jackson if the film is okay, I think has a great chance as he's someone who has worked with everyone and is beloved by many. And from what I've read is a decently juicy role. De Niro has the reviews, the DiCaprio bump potentially, but I do think the nature of his role will keep him from winning. Safdie is on the rise with his frequent castings, and he could be the standout within the supporting cast based on who is playing, though we'll see. Yes Plemons did not get the "ink" but he didn't for "Dog" either, so I could see him doing the sidling again. Dafoe...sure, I mean the love for him is certainly there in general.

Supporting Actress:

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon (Winner)
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple
Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster - Nyad

Gladstone REALLY has the reviews, she might not win, but I'd be very surprised to see her miss (frankly her performance just in the trailer would probably make my shortlist last year). Brooks and Henson merely based on following up the original nominations. Pugh over Blunt in Oppenheimer, again it all depends on where Nolan puts his focus, but she has the juicier role just based on historical record. If Bening is happening, why not her supporting coach as well in Foster.