Thursday, 19 January 2023

Best Actor Backlog Volume 4 Results

5. Anthony Hopkins in A Doll's House - Hopkins gives an effectively dismissive portrayal of a man blithely miscuing his wife and privilege.

Best Scene: Torvald freaks out. 
4. Alan Bates in Butley - The whole film is just Bates acting up a storm, and act he does quite well. 

Best Scene: Butley enters his office. 
3. James Cagney in The Public Enemy - Cagney gives a compelling star making turn that presents this instinctual and broken qualities of a boy playing at gangster. 

Best Scene: Rain Storm. 
2. Ray Milland in Alias Nick Beal - Ray Milland gives an effortlessly captivating portrayal of a man who inflicts evil through slick seduction. 

Best Scene: Nick recruiting. 
1. Toshiro Mifune in The Bad Sleep Well - Good predictions Anonymous, Oliver and Razor Mifune gives a brilliant portrayal of an atypical protagonist, who holds so much of himself in and puts on many faces to hide his true self and intentions. 

Best Scene: His wife visits him. 
Next: The Waiting Game. 

131 comments:

Louis Morgan said...

Important note only Tar and Banshees are working off a re-watch. I decided to not wait for Living because I won't be able to see until the Friday after Oscar nominations, and would rather just freely give what rankings I can on Oscar nominations day. And I will say there likely will be shifts with re-watches as even now the films are a lot closer in my mind than is often the case.

Luke Higham said...

Pleased to see The Northman at #5 for the time being and I never thought I'd see the day that a Puss in Boots film would be in your top 10 let alone just outside the top 5.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Is Puss In Boots: The Last Wish the strongest animated film from an American company since 2010.

Luke Higham said...

And happy that Morita has gone up to a 4.5 and into your 84 Supporting top 5.

Anonymous said...

You've made a slight typo. Wrote Volume 3 instead of 4.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Honestly was thinking Puss in Boots would be even higher based on your review of it, but I'm delighted it's your #6.

Marcus said...

Louis: Your #11 - #25 films of 2022 at the moment?
On another note, would you consider putting your present Yearly Rankings as lists on Letterboxd?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your lowest 4.5.

Louis Morgan said...

Marcus:

11. Broker
12. The Batman
13. Turning Red
14. RRR
15. Return to Seoul
16. Aftersun
17. Fire Of Love
18. Holy Spider
19. Bones And All
20. Triangle Of Sadness
21. All the Beauty and Bloodshed
22. The Phantom of the Open
23. The Quiet Girl
24. Argentina, 1985
25. X


Every film or just the top tens?

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

For me it is.

Lucas Saavedra said...

Louis: what are your thoughts on Shrek (2001) as a film?

Calvin Law said...

RIP Yoon Jeong-hee.

Glad to see Decision to Leave in the top 5.

Tony Kim said...

Matt Mustin: Would you care to explain why you think Kerry Condon was great in Better Call Saul? Looking over our last correspondence, it came off a bit like I was trying to shut you down, which wasn't my intention as I'd like to have heard you elaborate on your thoughts.

Louis: What are your thoughts on this video about The Bad Sleep Well? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGc-K7giqKM



Marcus said...

Louis: I was thinking of just your top ten/twenty of the year when I asked that, would be especially convenient to just update that list instead of us continually asking.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Overall. Is it Turning Red or RRR.

Luke Higham said...

RIP Yoon Jeong-Hee

Bryan L. said...

Louis et al: As we’re aware, Paul Mescal has been cast in two high-profile films recently off his buzz in Aftersun (the Gladiator sequel and replacing the lead performer in Richard Linklater’s ongoing project).

Do you think that could improve his chances of getting the fifth slot? As in, the Academy may have the “I got there” first mentality and name him a new star. Just some food for thought.

Calvin Law said...

I don't think any of those will have any impact - I don't think there's necessarily any precedent for an 'I got there' push.

If he gets in I think he gets in by virtue of passion for his performance.

Matt Mustin said...

Tony: Well, for me it's all about her chemistry with Banks. For me the two of them establish their relationship beautifully throughout the show, and while obviously I wouldn't put her in the top tier in terms of the show, she's definitely a good part of it.

Razor said...

Louis: Your top 20 Ray Milland acting moments.

And thoughts on the direction of Puss in Boots?

8000S said...

Louis: Your thoughts on this video with Song Kang-Ho.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRQIIEDmQ_8

RatedRStar said...

RIP Yoon Jeong-hee

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Would you be willing to see these Dreamworks films at some point. I only picked those that you might care about.
The Road To El Dorado (2000)
Shrek 2 (2004, I think it's superior to the original)
Flushed Away (2006)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011, I've yet to see Puss In Boots: The Last Wish but Gary Oldman's Lord Shen was the best Dreamworks villain up to that point)
Puss In Boots (2011, I quite enjoyed it)
How To Train Your Dragon 2 (2014)

Shaggy Rogers said...

After 2022, the next years revisions I would like to see on the blog (in sequence) are: 69, 2009, 58, 36, 46, 98, 72 or 76, 89 and 2017.

Shaggy Rogers said...

After 2022, the next years revisions I would like to see on the blog (in sequence) are: 69, 2009, 58, 36, 46, 98, 72 or 76, 89 and 2017.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I'd still be willing to go up to bat for Shrek 2, it's laugh ratio is still pretty high, and Fairy Godmother is a wonderful villain.

Luke Higham said...

And The Bad Guys was received pretty well too.

Anonymous said...

Luke: If Mescal gets in, it’s cause Aftersun is doing well with Academy voters (which I can confirm it is), and not cause of his casting in new projects. That doesn’t factor into academy voting at all, and never has.

Luke Higham said...

Anonymous: Bryan asked that question, not me.

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Agree on giving Shrek 2 a chance. Also Shen has been probably the best Dreamworks villain (and with a performance to support that), but after watching the new Puss in Boots the Wolf has dethroned him in my eyes.

Michael McCarthy said...

I’ll bet anything Puss in Boots goes up on rewatch, but ecstatic to see it so high already.

Bryan L. said...

Calvin & Anonymous: The main precedent I’m bringing up is that Hayden Christensen almost received a nomination for A Life as A House twenty (20) years ago, right before the Star Wars prequels came out. Of course, he didn’t get in anyway but he was theoretically on the cusp of stardom with the hope that everything would work out there. Not an apples-to-oranges comparison, of course, but worth mentioning Imo.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of The Last Of Sheila.

Anonymous said...

Luke and Louis, what animated films are you looking forward to most from 2023 and beyond.

Luke Higham said...

The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim
How Do You Live?
Spider-Man: Across/Beyond The Spider-Verse
Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
Mufasa: The Lion King (Jenkins attached has me intrigued regardless of the outcome)

Luke Higham said...

I suppose I should include the upcoming Wallace and Gromit film but it's difficult for me to want to see it without Peter Sallis.

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Louis: Since Shrek was brought up, what are your ratings and thoughts on Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy, Cameron Diaz and John Lithgow in that movie?

Louis Morgan said...

Lucas:

I'll admit that isn't the easiest film to look at objectively, as there was a lot of fandom at the time, to the point the first time I saw the film it was with everyone else in the room repeating just about every line as they happened, so I didn't exactly love it. I don't hate it by any measure, however, the use of pop music isn't my favorite, nor are those specific Matrix references for example, for me, Puss in Boots, kind of functionally realized that style in the right way.

Tony:

Yarp Kurosawa direct good. Seriously though what it illustrates is that great directing isn't always about big swings, but rather simple seeming choices at times, that are technically complex in their execution. And realize complexity in what are potentially simple scenes, made compelling by a great director, by making it dynamic. A lesser director might make that a cut-happy, closeup fest, but Kurosawa conveys all the information through blocking a few slight camera moves.

Marcus:

Yes, I can probably do that.

Luke:

Turning Red.

Bryan:

I mean any extra buzz does help him, but it will be the passion that gets him in by the majority of voters. If he gets it because again Aftersun underperformed.

Razor:

Milland:

1. In the Sanatorium - The Lost Weekend
2. DT's - The Lost Weekend
3. An Unusual Offer - Dial M For Murder
4. Thievery - The Lost Weekend
5. Wallowing in the night - The Lost Weekend
6. Listening to the Murder - Dial M For Murder
7. Ending - The Lost Weekend
8. Circular Logic - The Lost Weekend
9. Rejecting a Suggestion - Dial M For Murder
10. Recruiting - Alias Nick Beal
11. Setting up Evidence - Dial M For Murder
12. Explaining his "Career" - The Lost Weekend
13. An Offer - Alias Nick Beal
14. Seance - Ministry of Fear
15. Confrontation - The Bick Clock
16. Nick Beal Arrives - Alias Nick Beal
17. Romantic Interlude - The Lost Weekend
18. Beal Leave - Alias Nick Beal
19. Closing in - The Big Clock
20. Ending - Dial M For Murder

Louis Morgan said...


Proof that Spider-Verse did provide the animated industry with a mighty needed kick in the pants to the animated world in general because this visually was so much more interesting by taking more than a few pointers from that film and leaving behind just generalized Pixar. Those aspects provide so much more potential in crafting action particularly often in such a more dynamic way by allowing themselves to play with frame rate and style in a way that just adds so much more to the work. The film overall though knows it's animated so it actually has fun with the action and does things you couldn't do without animation in every action set piece that was clearly designed with a sense of character and plot progression. As there isn't an action scene that doesn't tell you something about something, while also just being compelling to watch. It helps though by actually changing up styles per scene, having pure fun mania, but also genuinely intense scenes, such as the Wolf versus Puss scenes that could stand up to any life-action serious-minded film with the amount of intensity given to it. The direction though beyond that does two things brilliantly one is always using the format whether that is in creating fantastical settings or getting to do those things live-action films can't or would truly struggle to do. It though is directed in it takes moments of quiet for character, or even for terror, as every scene with Wolf is atmospheric as all hell, and shows how unimaginative other animated film can be by comparison.

8000's:

Actually had already watched it because was surprised to see him doing so, I will say it is unfortunate it doesn't seem like whoever was prompting him really had probably seen most of his films to be perfectly honest. Still what insight he did give was interesting, particularly when he mentioned how Kore-eda handled child actors, which made so much sense, suggesting perhaps how he cultivates such natural performances from them.

Anonymous:

Spider-Verse and the new Miyazaki.

Luke:

Benjamin - 3(I don't hate Benjamin by any margin, but I do ponder how he got so many leading roles, as all his performances are a bit too samey, to say the least. I particularly just don't think has leading man energy, but I will say he does some decent, and slightly atypical work for him near the end of the film. Definitely would've preferred someone else in the role, like maybe someone who could actually do a James Coburn impression for example.)

Cannon - 4(Cannon can play her slightly ditzy note always with a nice lovely energy to it. This is no exception to that role, and brings a needed degree of charm to make up for some of her co-stars in that regard.)

Coburn - 3.5(Does sleaze ball well as typically expected and can be hectoring quite effectively.)

Hackett - 3.5(I typically do enjoy Hackett's sort of modest manner as a performer, and I think she contrasts well against Cannon in that sense. She's got a little more to do later on as well that I thought she handled quite effectively.)

McShane - 3(He's in the movie, not bad but he just gets the least to do.)

Welch - 2(I mean her poor acting ability is right within the name of her character. And I think it remains true even if she's just a little better than some of her other performances, she still is indeed pretty wooden as Alice Wood.)

Mason - 4(I mean come on, comes in like a pro like he always does. For much of the film, you get sort of the Mason reaction shots, which are also very appreciated whether it be in moments of sleaze or confusion. He then completely owns his last sequence every step of the way, and is expectedly just great to watch as he unravels the monologue.)

Luke Higham said...

Louis: I recall you giving The Incredibles a 5 rating. If Puss does go up after I assume you'll be doing a write-up for Moura, would Dreamworks have officially hit higher heights than Pixar.

Anonymous said...

Luke: On Louis's last update for his top 25 animated films, The Incredibles was at a 4.5.

Luke Higham said...

Anonymous: He must've downgraded it then because it was a 5 initially.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of The Silent Twins.

Matthew Montada said...

Calvin: ratings for the cast of Babylon?

Tim said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tim said...

your thoughts on this scene?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aP4F7WM3Y0Y

Oliver Menard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Oliver Menard said...

I'll save both my requests for the moment.

Louis: Your ranking of the Kore-eda films you've seen so far.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Louis: Did you watch the 2005 revival Sweeney Todd recording I linked?

Calvin Law said...

Matthew:

Robbie - 4/4.5
Calva - 4
Pitt - 3
Smart - 3
Adepo - 4
Li - 4
Hamilton - 4
Byrne - 3
Haas - 2.5
Scovel - 2
Waterston - 2
Flea - 3
Garlin - 2
Roberts - 3
Suplee - 3
Weaving - 2.5
Maguire - 1

Calvin Law said...

Watched Empire of Light. Don't really have much vitriol towards it but it is pretty weak overall. Ward MVP.

Matthew Montada said...

Calvin: ratings for the cast of Empire Of Light?

8000S said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the cinematography of the original Spider-Man trilogy.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Do you think DreamWorks fumbled by not releasing Puss in Boots earlier? I think if it was released at around the same time Spider-verse was, it would have had a much better shot at winning the Animated Feature Oscar.

Calvin Law said...

Probably in the minority here but I'm rooting for Turning Red to win Best Animated.

Matthew:

Colman - 3.5
Ward - 4
Firth - 2
Jones - 3
Brooke - 2.5
Moodie - 3

Also Deakins' inevitable nom is going to be a real waste of one, considering the calibre of films and cinematography we have coming out this year.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Wright & Lawrence - 4(They both give good performances however they can't really unlock much with how underwritten the roles are. They inhabit what's there, but what is there is so little it doesn't add up to much. The two though are definitely trying to find something, but it doesn't result in anything of particular note.)

Everyone else is fine but again if the leads are underwritten, the supporting roles are nonexistent.

Tim:

All of Rocky Balboa is kind of a trip down memory lane for Stallone, and this is the scene that is most literally that. It feels earned though just because of how much time we've spent with Rocky at this point, and while it is extremely sentimental, it is sentiment that works, particularly because Stallone doesn't make it all roses with Paulie recognizing his more troubled relationship with Adrian that was far from the "perfect" romance Rocky had with her. I will say though Stallone's writing is better than his direction which I think just lays it on a bit too thick from , the angelic glow, to the particular intensity of the score. Still even with those flaws, I still like it.

Oliver:

1. Like Father, Like Son
2. Still Walking
3. Shoplifters
4. Broker
5. After the Storm

Robert:

I did.

8000's:

It has say more about the somewhat dire state of MCU's cinematography that we might be maxing nostalgic over the cinematography of Spider-man 2002, than it does about Spider-man 2002. The work which by Don Burgess is basically pretty standard what was the commercial style of the time. Although with a slightly strange tangerine color grading/lighting that occasionally is a bit distracting particularly the first Spider-man v. Goblin sequence, that makes the balcony set look particularly fake. It is occasionally a bit too close in its focal point and the lighting of the focal point sometimes makes the image a bit flat.

Spider-Man 2 is where you can kind of see what is the difference between what the cinematography and director does, as the overall aesthetic is the same, the execution of it is different with the upgrade with Bill Pope over Don Burgess. Pope's work drops the tangerine coloring and the lighting is far more dynamic that eliminates the flatness in some of those closeups. Superior work that is a far better realization of what it seems like Raimi was going for.

Spider-man 3 is a continuation of that, but with inferior choices from Raimi's level that transfers down. That is figuring out lighting for silly shots, the shots are still silly, even if they are typically decently lit and composed. What I would say is weaker in general are the VFX shots that are sloppy, obviously that is more than Pope, but it shows the sort of slapdash nature of that film.

Tahmeed:

Maybe, but we'll see. It could still win as I don't think Pinocchio is a slam dunk by any means. As long as it gets in, and people continue to discover it, it could ride the momentum in the right way, as it's boxoffice is showing that it has legs.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on that Sweeney Todd production and the cast.

Tony Kim said...

Louis: In an alternate world where Tom Cruise is a character actor, which supporting roles do you think would be interesting for him to play?

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Well I won't go player by player but I did like the bare bones direction of the version, and I thought the actors being the musicians was a pretty brilliant choice, while also being executed extremely well. LuPone was amazing, already previously thought she was great in the concert, but seeing her in the full immersion was all the more impressive. Cerveris though was an exceptionally good Todd, who I think found his own sort of path as almost a kind of summoned demon in some respects, while of course just being amazing with every song. I thought everyone else acquitted themselves well, particularly Lauren Molina who I thought made Johanna a little less boring than she usually is and Alexander Gemignani who I think did the absolute most with the Beadle. Not 100% sure about Donna Lynne Champlin's Pirelli, in that I'm not 100% how I felt about it one way or the other.

Tony:

I think seeing his Cliff Booth would've been REALLY interesting, and I think it would've massively changed the dynamic in the Bruce Lee scene for example, since it would've been another shorter guy trying to prove himself against another shorter guy, rather than the towering (comparatively) Pitt, which granted more of a bullying quality that I'm not sure was intended.

Otherwise:

Jack (Sideways)
Percy Wetmore
Dan White

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of Close.

Tony Kim said...

Louis: His Cliff Booth would indeed have been interesting, though I'm not sure he would've had as much chemistry with DiCaprio.

What do you think of him as Howard Hamlin?

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Dambrine - 4.5(For how limited the character is in terms of expressing precisely what he thinks, and again that I'll let the film off more because boys of his age wouldn't necessarily have that vocabulary, he does manages to convey a lot within his performance. That is the subtleties of emotions within emotions particularly early on with a certain uneasiness after seeming just a basic contentment. Mix in with that later scenes where he is quite affecting in presenting the moments of just kind of dealing with the situation in stages, and marks each stage with an honest reality.)

Dequenne - 4(Does have too much to do beyond presenting her emotional reactions, yet in that she does have quite the tremendous power in her acting still with such naturalistic quality within her work.)

Everyone else is good but even more limited.

Tony:

Well again, chemistry can only exist or not, if you actually see it, so maybe or maybe not in that regard.

Yes, even if that would be a lot of wasted star power for most of the theoretical series.

8000S said...

Louis: What are your thoughts on the voice of Patricia Neal?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of Tomboy.

Matt Mustin said...

Watched The Captive (2014, Atom Egoyan). Reprehensible garbage. I can't remember the last time I was this enraged by a movie. Watch Prisoners again to see how to do this kind of thing right.

Reynolds-4(Would probably be higher but the weird as all hell structure of the movie kinda hurts him.)

Dawson-2.5

Speedman-1.5

Enos-2.5

Fast-2.5

Durand-0(Absolutely fucking not with this.)

Greenwood-2.5(Pointless role, just there because he and Egoyan are kind of a team.)

Luke Higham said...

And where would you rank Zoe Heran for 2011 Leading Actress.

Louis Morgan said...

Essentially concur with Calvin on Empire of Light, though I'd give Deakins a bit more credit.

Colman - 3.5
Ward - 4(His supporting nomination is also major fraud)
Firth - 2
Jones - 3
Brooke - 3
Moodie - 2.5

8000's:

Kind of a perfect blend of raspy but not too raspy.

Luke:

Heran - 4.5(Interesting I will say that I just happened to watch this film after watching Close, as I think this film does just everything that film is trying to do, using similar techniques but in a superior way. Heran's performance leads really so much of the film, as so much of it is often just built around her expressions through the different situations we follow her in. In that we are granted a real depth of reaction and realization, where nothing is simple as simple behavior as in her silent moments she does convey the sense of dealing with her nonconformity, even when just having fun or potential romantic implications even. As the film goes on, she is properly devastating by as naturally showing the reaction to the breakdown of her situation quite powerfully so.)

Everyone else is good though not focused upon overtly. #5.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Thoughts on the cast of Empire of Light?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Apparently James Corden auditioned for Samwise Gamgee. Your thoughts on it.

Calvin Law said...

Yeah, Sciamma is just much better at finding more of the depth and complexity within the child's perspective. Glad you liked Tomboy - that's one that snuck up on me with how powerful it ends up becoming. Whereas I don't dislike Close, but there was a much more potent film to be made from its starting point.

And yeah, thinking about it, maybe I am a bit too harsh on Deakins - perhaps just on principle that without his name, I do genuinely think the same film with the same calibre of cinematography would not be in contention.

Calvin Law said...

Also, as to your point on Being There being used as the emotional climax of the film: I had the same thought about it being an...odd choice. Though really the same goes for much of the pop culture references within it which never quite cohered with the emotional drive it was going for.

Mitchell Murray said...

Matt: I'd also point out "The Captive" came out the same year as "Tusk", "Locke", "Under The Skin" and, well, "A Most Violent Year". So yah...2014 was a weird time to be A24.

Luke: Well, this would've been a good deal before Corden's range was as known as today. Nonetheless, Sean Astin was outstanding in the third film especially, and I'm not sure if a young Corden would've matched that (though I could still imagine him working, honestly).

Luke Higham said...

If Jackson had made it in the 2010s, I suppose he could get something tolerable out of him but I'll never swap Astin for anybody else.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Colman - (Her performance struggles largely because she needs to carry the weight of the most over-the-top scenes as written, and without any proper lead-up to these moments truly. Colman, unfortunately, can't overcome how overcooked they are as written, so in turn she gets pretty overcooked herself in these moments. She does make up for them by creating some genuine chemistry with Ward, though every aspect of their relationship is painfully rushed, you do believe them in a very general sense. Additionally, in the moments of quieter vulnerability, Colman does excel in her expected way.)

Ward - (Just a charming performance which is hindered a bit by pieces being missing throughout in terms of the development of a lot of the moments. We kind of get the end of arcs rather than ever the middle of them. Ward gets by though just by consistently bringing honesty within the character's optimistic manner and continually excels with Colman even when the writing does everything to sabotage him.)

Firth - (He really needs to stay away from the sleazy villainous types as he just goes over the top with them so quickly.)

Jones - (Delivers his one big monologue well, but his character is so underserved by whatever the story is trying to do. He seems like a leftover idea from a draft, or even an idea Mendes started working on but forgot to continue. Jones does what he can, with what he has, but it isn't a lot.)

Brooke - (Thought his more sympathetic asides were relatively decent.)

Moodie - (Mostly forgettable though fine.)

Luke:

Although I don't think Corden is completely talentless, given Astin was ideal, we probably dodged a bullet, particularly since I think Corden probably would've way overplayed the comedic scenes. 

Calvin:

While I certainly agree that he wouldn't be getting in if he was an unknown cinematographer with the same work, I do think the work still delivered at a certain level to earn the recognition, as obviously Deakins isn't always nominated (The Goldfinch, Hail, Caesar!). Particularly since one of the people he's currently getting in over is Kaminski who is obviously also very well-liked by the branch/industry, and whose film is obviously going to do much better overall. Now, this doesn't excuse the snubbing of someone like Kim Ji-yong, but sadly he might not even be in the top 10 in terms of who is getting votes. 

Yeah, the references altogether seemed like Mendes pulled them out of a hat, including Chariots of Fire, which ended up having no relevance to the plot whatsoever, it could've been the premiere for a made-up film and there would've been no difference to the story. 

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Yeah, I can imagine Cordon delivering something promising in the serious scenes, but then falling back onto his "teddy bear" persona we unfortunately came to know during the more lighthearted ones.

Calvin Law said...

Agreed on it hitting a certain standard, though I will say Kaminski's work is considerably better than Deakins' here and would hate to see him miss out. And yeah, Kim is a distant pipe dream.

I will say, the complete lack of anything with regards to what films were chosen by Mendes, made me appreciate all the more how Spielberg managed to make The Greatest Bore on Earth into this transcendent experience I was completely convinced by.

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

I would 100% agree regarding Kaminski > Deakins this year. It's shame he's probably being penalized because it is more intimate/"small scale" work, though I would argue that is so much of its brilliance, such as everything he does in the "Sammy editing" scene.

Yes very much so. Mendes's choices were so haphazard it could almost could make one think "do you even like movies bro?", where with Spielberg you could feel the love, even for something like DeMille's overblown mess of a film.

BRAZINTERMA said...

Hello Louis and folks.
Okay, let's talk about our final predictions for Tuesday's nominees:

SONG
"Applause" - Tell It Like a Woman
"Ciao Papa" - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” - Top Gun Maverick
“Lift Me Up” - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” - RRR

SCORE
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking

SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun Maverick

EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun Maverick

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun Maverick

MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLIST
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Top Gun Maverick

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
Decison to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau - The Whale
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

LEAD ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - TAR
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once

LEAD ACTOR
Austin Butler - Elvis
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Paul Mescal - After Sun
Bill Nighy - Living

DIRECTOR
Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
The Daniels - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - TÁR

PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Top Gun Maverick
The Whale



And what are your final predictions?
Comment!

Mitchell Murray said...

Finally saw "The Banshees of Inisherin" tonight, just in time for the oscar nods. I'll need to do some thinking about how it compares to McDonagh's other films. Rest assured, I thought it was quite effective on first viewing, and it gave me the exact sort of tone and human commentary I'd expect from the director.

Farrell - 5 (First off, great performance. Secondly, it's been wonderful to see how much Farrell has matured and grown as a performer since the 2000s - something that's also reflected in his recent interviews)

Gleeson - 5 (Less overtly emotional than Farrell's work just like "In Bruges", but he's terrific as well, and it's honestly just another splendid outing for the actor)

Keoghan - 4 (Yah...he's good. Takes a role that could've been so distracting and calculated, and makes it likable, funny and even moving)

Condon - 4 (Deserves all the praise she gets for making such a impression, and realizing every ounce of the character as written/needed. Could go up in time)

Anonymous said...

Brazinterma, most of your predictions seem plausible enough but 1/5 in cinematography to ASC, seems very unlikely.

Oliver Menard said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the direction and screenplay of Mommy. I'd consider it to be one of the worst highest praised films of the 2010's.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on "Stanley's Cup" from South Park and it's ending

BRAZINTERMA said...

Anonymous: Wrote wrong in cinematography, I change Babylon for Empire of Light

8000S said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the direction and screenplay of The Bad Sleep Well.

Louis Morgan said...

Oliver:


The direction all begins with the aspect ratio, which I don't think does anything other than make the film hard to look at for extended periods, with the scenes of changing of it only factoring in seemingly a desire to impress that falls flat completely in my mind. The whole thing, which I will get into in a moment, is manufactured beyond belief in some aggressively twee style wrapped around "heart wrenching" material theoretically anyways. Making the whole manner of the film very mannered, and intensely dishonest in its flamboyance. There's not one choice, other than allowing the central female performances to be naturalistic, that doesn't feel so masterminded in execution that it couldn't come off as any more phony. 

The screenplay though I equally despise as a series of scenes that certainly fall into the worst kind of manipulation. Pretty much all films as written are manipulative the secret is hiding that fact and making it seem like a natural occurrence. Mommy ignores such notions from the scenario itself that would be right at home at the most obvious American studio tearjerker, but since it is arthouse, I guess it is okay. The whole character Steve to me is this unbelievable creation, who is the most perfect of free spirits while also being aggressively dangerous, with neither being convincing with as it is written with this intensely aggressive preciousness to him. The film is rotten to its core because the screenplay really begins with this character who feels every bit a screenwriter's creation and not some real person. I think in part of this is the way the character only really exists within his current behavior and is designed for whatever obvious drama the scene calls for than some natural revelations of a real person. Which every development is handled with basic manipulation, such as the instantly violent approach of the hospital staff, or everything in the ending. The scenario is that of a stacked deck to craft so-called drama, which really unravels itself with basic repetitions and every scenario feels designed rather than any kind of natural expression of people dealing with a difficult situation. 

Anonymous:

Well, I think it says something that I don't remember anything about it other than its ending, so I wouldn't say it is a particularly successful episode up until the ending. The ending though I think is probably in a certain sense cruel humor in a very undiluted form, by just how unabashed it is with how extreme it goes in every respect. And I will say there is something funny about the idea of suddenly switching perspectives as how it is all some inspirational story for someone else. But the choice to not do it to our normal South Park kids, and instead do the even younger, who are designed to look as delicate as possible, goes to an extreme that feels more like "come on guys" that's a bit much. 

Louis Morgan said...

8000's:

Kurosawa's direction of The Bad Sleep Well is a masterclass of creating action through dialogue, as in this particular story almost all the more intense acts technically occur offscreen, what Kurosawa though does is seek to make what is onscreen compelling. Often times creates a challenge for himself to create a new sequence that somehow is compelling in itself just through the characters talking. What is remarkable is how Kurosawa does this without ever resorting to seemingly obvious gimmicks rather than just precise framing and blocking of his performers more often than not. So many of the conversations are compelling just how he makes little choices in setup and camera movements. There are also brilliant grander choices like his entire execution of the opening scene which is all about the way he puts the press together as this chorus and leads up into the party as basically uninvited guests as we enter and see. Or his choice in a location that is a mix of the staid corporate locales with the intense environments that break in whether that be the choice of the munition factory, which is amazing in the sheer decay of it, or the fogging mountain top. Kurosawa's choices are never simple, even when they may seem it. Take the sequence of Iwabuchi tricking his daughter. That is nearly done in silence, and Kurosawa knows how to show the steps of the process, while also even having a moment of shame with the use of the mirror, that he doesn't stay on too long, but just enough.  I think a key to his direction though is his ability to actually find variety in the tone. As he does have a coldness to the idea of the corporate world, and a bleakness, however, he does take time for those moments of joy, and he grants the audience to as well, which actually makes the tragedy greater than if he had simply piled it all on. 

Kurosawa's screenplay is brilliant of course and extremely daring in its execution. Structurally so different in that it makes the protagonist a mystery that the film slowly unravels. Rather the film opens with our entryway into the world, in which Kurosawa performs a masterclass by setting up all his pieces in one sequence, all the stakes in that sequence, and doing in a way that feels natural by having the press just commenting on the situation as they would. He earns the kind of surprise of sorts as our protagonist reveals himself slowly, and realizes this specifically as a well-thought-out revenge plan. Kurosawa develops this character as defined by the corporate world both in his plot and also in who he is as a man. Creating a layered protagonist who reveals himself slowly through action. Action that isn't through the obvious way, yet Kurosawa comes up with multiple techniques that are convincing as these sort of atypical weapons against corporate corruption. Giving Nishi a plan that actually makes sense through each subsequent scene. Kurosawa does so in a way that naturally develops every dynamic in the world around him, by giving an articulated sense of the way the power system destroys their no longer useful limbs. And also making enough of a personal connection by creating that relationship within the family and how contracts initially with the plot, until it becomes an essential facet of the plot. We have in that one of the most unpleasant rug pulls in any film, which is particularly brutal because Kurosawa sets up the pieces so naturally, and even reveals them in a way that genuinely surprises you with how brutal it all becomes so quickly. Kurosawa successfully created what is an engaging mental-based thriller, while also granting this overall, nearly nihilistic, portrait of the nature of corruption. 

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Will you rewatch RRR before the Alternates?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: And The Batman.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of The Wave.

And do you intend to get around to the last few recommendations before returning to the bonus rounds.

Tony Kim said...

Fellow Oscar predictors: Which categories are you having the hardest time predicting? What are the most left-field nominations you're predicting?

Louis Morgan said...

Tahmeed:

Possibly.

Luke:

Vogel - 3.5(Gives a decent enough portrayal of playful intensity that progresses to genuine intensity until he runs into regretfulness. Personally I think the check points were a little too thin at times, however I thought he hit them decently.)

Lau - 4(Portrays the on edge qualities effectively in showing the sense of comfort that slowly segues towards more of an intensity within the idea. His performance at least succeeds in the driving derangement within this certain passionate unity, that is effective even I didn't fully believe the final moments of it all.)

Everyone else I thought was good albeit limited.

I have re-watched The Batman.

Depending how fed up I get with awards season, however looking at this year compared to last year, I'll probably have time.

Tony:

Overall I'd say guessing whoever #5 in lead actor will be seems like the hardest thing to predict currently. I wouldn't say I have any truly left field picks, my most sort of "leaps" are Triangle of Sadness in Picture, Bardo in International Feature and Corsage/Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris in costumes.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on the cast of The Batman with Pattinson, Dano and Turturro as exceptions and any upgrades.

Luke Higham said...

And ratings and thoughts on the cast of That Most Important Thing: Love.

Anonymous said...

Louis, thoughts on the Direction, Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Editing and Score of The Batman. I'll ask again for Sound Editing/Mixing, Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling if they don't make the cut.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Did you see The Haunting Of Hill House, I've noticed that you've skipped The Seagull.

Louis Morgan said...

I didn't skip the seagull, I've consistently gone with everyone's first listed request. I'm currently in the middle of Hill House.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: No worries.

RatedRStar said...

I am in a similar situation with Paul Mescal as I was with Ruth Negga last year, I know he is going to get snubbed but I have no clue who for so I just keep him in by default lol.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Wright - (Kudos in that I think he managed to completely be Gordon, while also doing a completely different thing from what Oldman did with the part, playing less paternal, and more with kind of a sense of camaraderie with Pattinson. Wright, I think with that grants a certain effective low-key humor to his performance that brings the right sense of casual morbidity that works. While also just bringing the needed dogged conviction you want from Gordon, and moments of certain direct uncompromised charity of good opposed to who Batman is. I hope Reeves maintains the partnership in the sequels(that hopefully will happen)).

Kravitz - (Felt exactly the same way about her performance, in that I do think she has some stilted moments, but overall I do like her management between sultry and a kind of emotional vulnerability. Balancing the sides quite effectively.)

Serkis - (Can't say for sure where he sits as Alfreds go, as he has had the least the to do, though in general, I did like him, particularly in his biggest scene that he delivered well, though I wouldn't say he quite has made a stamp with the character. Hope he gets more to do in the sequel.)
Sarsgaard - (Why does he always have the flu when he overacts? Still has the flu.)

Louis Morgan said...

Farrell - (I will say it is impressive that Farrell also sells the makeup to the degree in that I will bluntly say you'd never guess he was the Penguin unless you knew he was playing the part, and there without a doubt a particular success with that alone. I also though thought his particular bigness here worked for the gangster who owns his place and has the right fun in kind taking a bit of pretense out of certain moments in the right way such as his "I didn't shoot" or when questioning Gordon and Batman's Spanish.)
Schneider - 5(Need to decide if she's lead or supporting. Regardless like with Adjani Zulawski is pushing her hard, and Schneider pushes back with it being rather glorious, to say the least. Now it isn't quite on that extreme most of the time, though she does have one moment of that ilk of the most intense emotional desperation that she excels with and feels like this cathartic release of every bit of pent-up emotion in a single moment. Every moment of her performance though bleeds this potent authenticity that ends up being quite something considering how complex things get in and around her character. She delivers this raw intensity as the character has to remember her particular position. She combines this naturally though with this certain state of power in delivering her specific requirements in a kind of fascinating sort of state of frustration that she also perpetuates, however in an unexpected way. Scheider's work always grants a real sense of the internal logic of her character even when it is clear she is struggling to grasp it wholly herself. Schneider is never lost and is captivating by bringing to life the state of the woman that never feels too much, despite being a whole lot to take in. Combine that with her moments of performance within the performance, which are all in their greater flamboyance, and you have quite the performance.)

Testi - (Dubbed, though his reactions though are good throughout in creating a good sense of this consistent straight man through all the madness.)

Dutronc - (Quite effective in creating this sort of deranged state who is both blithe about his relationship while also being intensely attached to it. Dutronc wields this kind of intensity with a strange sort of ease of a man who in a way is too at ease in a kind of deranged state of being.)

Dauphin - (Does creepy old man quite effortlessly and quite disturbingly. Particularly as his manner is able to swing to full sleaze and a kind of paternal warmth without losing a beat on either side of things. Find him particularly effective in his final scene where he distributes a brutal beating as though it is this kind teaching moment.)

Kinski - (Not even dubbing can hold back the madness of Kinski from still making quite the proper impression, particularly some crazed physical work when we get a few tidbits of what his Richard III might've looked like.)

Anonymous said...

@RatedRStar Same thing for Redmayne with me: it seems like a performance that gets nominated for loads to f precursors before missing the Oscar, but there are also no viable candidates outside of him imo.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Anyways, Reeves's direction very much takes in what others have done with Batman, then mixes it with a heavy helping of David Fincher, to craft its own blend of Batman. That is you have seen shades of many of these ideas before, in the action, and in some of the design elements. Reeves though finds his own character, and part of that is his choice to really carefully take moments for atmosphere building. The opening sequences in particular in both The Riddler's and Batman's. He seeks to create a very distinct sense of the world that you are in, which is decidedly not quite a reality and more of a neo-noir. Largely succeeding as such. This combined with just strong action and quite the chase scene, all take elements from prior Batman work but do their own things. The most unique though is the time he spends within an investigation, that is taking time to look and analyze. Which again works in creating the detective side of things, while also giving you a real sense of this world in a stylistic way. Now I do think there are a few missteps here and there. Not so much with overall vision though just some execution of moments, such as the use of the occasional gimmick cam and breaking the sort of more realistic manner such as how hard poor Batman hits at the end of the flying scene. Still, nothing to break an overall strong vision that created a unique Batman world, and an effective Batman tale. 

The screenplay is very good in terms of setting up the world, setting a satisfying mystery (though there are the occasional leaps, as there usually are) and has the appropriate fun with the idea of the Riddler, while using it to explore all of Gotham. With that, it does give a sense of our characters, particularly Bruce and Selena, and creates the duality of their choices, along with the duality of Bruce and The Riddler as well. All are positioned over the idea of really lack of parents and how they influence each person. Exploring that theme effectively. Even with characters who have less time or just fewer character moments, Reeves shows the importance of good dialogue as you know who Gordon is just by what he says, and the same goes with Falcone, which then the actors proceeded to run with. On the negative side of things, the Joker scene is terrible, but I imagine, or hope, that wasn't Reeves's choice. Check Batman Begins with how to do a Joker teaser, that one is perfection. The screenplay's biggest flaw is it climaxes twice. Now there are ideas important to the second climax such as the switch to the heroic Batman, but I think the screenplay needed to find a way to make the two bleed together more than they do. Not that either is bad on their own, it's hard to not bump into in terms of the flow, it also leaves the final battle against a sea of nameless enemies which makes it less interesting. 

Louis Morgan said...

I wouldn't say it is quite down for the count in production design (it did get in at ADG, so let's wait). 

Costume Design is all good work. The Batsuit is great, and the Riddler outfit is great, all finding the right blend of reality with stylistic grunge. I wouldn't say everyone's regular clothes are that memorable but do all serve their purposes well. The one aspect that I will decry slightly is Selena's sock for a mask. I don't think they figured that one out, and just should've given her a cat ears mask, I would not have minded, and I do think it would've looked better. Still not a major flaw by any means. 

Editing is always tricky to talk about because it is also a balance in the script. And here purposefully the editing is a bit more gradual, and I think most of that sense it hits my tempo to hit atmosphere building not lagging. For the most part, occasionally does lag, and not often but it does occasionally happen. Particularly after the first climax which again is the script, but the editing there also struggles a bit I think to round out the edges of it. Of course, let's not discount the within-scene editing, and action editing, that is all pretty taut here, particularly within the chase scene. 

The score, which was snubbed HARD, is fantastic work. I think Giacchino was coming in with quite the challenge because Elfman and Zimmer both made their impressions, I think Giacchino managed to do the same for this version of Batman. Almost has kind of a fine balance between Zimmer's and Elfman's in some way. In that, there are more atmospheric elements but also a strong sense of melodic themes. Giacchino's instrumentation is a potent mix of bass-centric work that skews between a more classical orchestra and a more modern bent. What I like most about is his attention to character, Batman has a distinct theme, Catwoman has a distinct theme, and The Riddler has a distinct theme, each that quickly becomes instantly attached to them, something I honestly think should be the norm with comic book movies, yet for one whole studio score seems kind of an afterthought at times...no one in particular. 

Luke Higham said...

Louis: For the time being, is Schneider your #1 Female performance of 75 or is it Louise Fletcher.

RatedRStar said...

Louis: BTW did you see the Siskel & Ebert memo to the Academy (1995) that came up recently? wow what a bizarre episode lol.

Aidan Pittman said...

Thought I'd go ahead and share my final Oscar nominations predictions here for anyone interested: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/dualy/oscars-nominations-2023-predictions/

Mostly conflicted with Lead Actor, but decided on Mescal for the fifth spot anyways because even though Aftersun didn't do as well with BAFTA nominations as hoped, looking at their longlists and what it got in over in some cases still makes me think that there is enough love for him to sneak in. Hugh Jackman would be #6 in this case, though given his film's reception I can only see him getting in if the actors branch votes for him without seeing the movie just because they like him.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Well give me some time on that one as well.

RatedRStar:

I did, I wonder how many precursors had happened at that point since most of their recommendations were nominated, and ended up being favorites in many cases.

Their final discussion on Toy Story though was so random and hilarious. Another hidden gem moment from the two, and a reminder why I loved them as a duo.

Louis Morgan said...

Also a couple things for Oscar nomination time:

-I'll be busy so my annual thoughts will come a little later, though I will probably be able to get the lineup posted (probably sans picture at first).

-Blogger's spam detector has gotten out of control, so if your comment disappears, it will be due to that (some of my comments even have been sent to spam, which seems a little strange). So if it disappears, try not to repost, I will make sure to go through the spam-list when I am able to.

Emi Grant said...

Hey, guys. I just spent 5 hours working on my full Oscars nominations predictions. So, I'm just gonna dump them right here, ok?

Apologies in advance for the long comment, Louis.

Best Live Action Short:
- The Red Suitcase
- Almost Home
- Ivalu
- Le Pupille
- Nakam

Best Animated Short Film:
- The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse
- The Flying Sailor
- Ice Merchants
- It's Nice in Here
- Save Ralph

Best Documentary Feature:
- A House Made of Splinters
- All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
- Children of The Mist
- Fire of Love
- Moonage Daydream

Best Documentary Short:
- American Justice on Trial: People vs. Newton
- As Far As They Can Run
- Happiness is £4 Million
- Nuisance Bear
- Stranger at The Gate

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- The Batman
- The Whale

Best Visual Effects:
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Sound:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Original Score:
- Babylon
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Women Talkin

Best Costume Design
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Babylon
- Elvis
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Production Design:
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Babylon
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- The Fabelmans

Best Original Song:
- Ciao Papa (GDT's Pinocchio)
- Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Stand Up (Till)
- Naatu Naatu (RRR)
- Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Cinematography:
- Elvis
- Empire of Light
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Bardo
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Editing:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best International Feature:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Argentina, 1985
- Bardo
- Decision To Leave
- Close

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
- The Whale
- Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Elvis
- Tár
- The Fablemans

Best Supporting Actress:
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Supporting Actor:
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Best Actor:
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Best Actress:
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)
- Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Best Director:
- The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Todd Field (Tár)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Park Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Best Picture:
- Aftersun
- Avatar: The Way of F*ck off, Cameron
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Babylon
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Elvis
- RRR
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- The Whale

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Tony: I'll say the same thing in that the fifth spot in Lead Actor category in a big unknown to me. I really have no idea who will get in, be it Mescal with all the acclaim he's getting, Sandler with AMPAS trying to make up for Uncut Gems snub or Cruise with his Cruising and his movie's popularity. I can even see the Academy selecting Jackman with the "b-b-but Father was so great, so you MUST love this one...right?" mindset.

Tony Kim said...

My final, last-minute predictions: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/winters/oscars-nominations-2023-predictions/

Gonna go out on a limb and predict an underperformance for Avatar 2, Ostlund in Director, and BTH in Supporting Actor. Any other snubs/surprises you see predicted are just based on unexplainable gut feelings.

Matt Mustin said...

The Good Nurse is at it's best when it focuses on the two terrific performances from Jessica Chastain and Eddie Redmayne. It's less effective when it becomes a run-of-the mill procedural, but it's still never bad.

Chastain-4.5

Redmayne-4.5(Genuinely surprised. I've never thought he was untalented I just never particularly cared for his screen presence. Here though, he is excellent, and said screen presence is actually used quite brilliantly. And to top things off his very final line is completely bone-chilling.)

Asomugha-3.5

Emmerich-3.5(Basically just a less complex version of his role on The Americans.)

Tim said...

Emi: you don't bet much on Glass Onion, huh?

Anonymous said...

Just the one onion?

Shaggy Rogers said...

My final predictions:

Best Documentary Feature
- Descendant
- Fire of Love
- Moonage Daydream
- Navalny
- The Territory

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Amsterdam
- The Batman
- Elvis
- The Whale

Best Visual Effects:
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Nope
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Sound:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Original Score:
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- Women Talkin

Best Original Song:
- Ciao Papa (Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio)
- Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Naatu Naatu (RRR)
- Applause (Tell It Like a Woman)
- Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Costume Design
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
- The Woman King

Best Production Design:
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans

Best Cinematography:
- Elvis
- Empire of Light
- Bardo
- The Fabelmans
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Editing:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Top Gun: Maverick

Best International Feature:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Argentina, 1985
- Bardo
- Decision To Leave
- The Quiet Girl

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Living
- Glass Onion
- The Whale
- Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay
- Aftersun
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- The Fablemans
- Tár

Best Supporting Actress:
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Best Supporting Actor:
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Best Actress:
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)
- Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Best Actor:
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Paul Mescal (Aftersun) or Adam Sandler (Hustle). I don't know!

Best Director:
- Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
- The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Todd Field (Tár)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Best Picture:
- Aftersun
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Walter
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- The Whale

Luke Higham said...

Well as RatedRStar and Captain Edmund Blackadder say, Good Luck Everyone!

Tim said...

Top Gun for Screenplay, certainly didn't expect that

Anonymous said...

Henry over Dano and Redmayne!

RatedRStar said...

Brian Tyree Henry!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

DANOOOOOOOOO AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH

Luke Higham said...

Dano and Redmayne missed, Hirsch and Henry in.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Delighted for Hsu. Hirsch and Henry in Supporting Actor, but no Dano is a MASSIVE surprise.

Razor said...

Brian Tyree Henry!

RatedRStar said...

Oh god I did brilliantly in Supporting Actress but terrible in Supporting Actor lol.

Luke Higham said...

I just knew that BAFTA miss would come back to haunt him.

RatedRStar said...
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Oliver Menard said...

I really dig Henry making it in. Surprised by Dano missing out. His role felt tailored made for an Oscar nom.

RatedRStar said...

Luke: I thought this time I would be General Melchitt and stay in the base lol =D rather than be in the trenches lol.

Oliver Menard said...
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Oliver Menard said...
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Tahmeed Chowdhury said...
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