Another Year and Another...well delayed...Official Lineup

It would be a great irony if this year, of all years, where I'm making my predictions, before any precursors with voter overlap, was the most accurate in all the years I did this. Doubtful, but worth a thought. This lineup though seems right regarding just general buzz, and lack of alternatives. Outside of these five there just haven't been that many heralded leading turns that received their level of praise. These appear the top five on that notion. Ahmed for the young up and comer. Lindo for a vet finally getting recognition. Boseman being a story within himself, with "undeniable" mentions. Oldman seeming primed for a followup after a win, though I think he could be the one people think could miss out though perhaps will have always been safe, kind of like say a Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game type. Hopkins also received "undeniable" mentions, and seems primed to be recognized once again. Other than these five there is Tom Hanks, who was praised enough, but only enough for a film that seems like probably at best a best picture tech player. Kingsley Ben-Adir for One Night in Miami, received enough praise, but perhaps will not be able to crack against his competitors who aren't part of the same type of ensemble in terms of being overshadowed. Steven Yeun for Minari, needs to make a splash quickly if he's going to make any, and so far he hasn't made one. There could be a dark horse waiting in the wings, but doesn't seem like it at the moment. Maybe Mads Mikkelsen for Another Round? Seems unlikely, and most likely that film's biggest play will be International film only, unfortunately.

Where I had a great degree of false confidence in lead, I will say I have none in supporting. This as I think SAG, Globes and BAFTA could instantly throw all these right out the window. The "Trial" guys who seemed to have been far better bets a couple months ago, now seem in trouble mainly because the critics have not done the one thing they could've done, which would be to decide "who was the best" for voters. In general that film's buzz has faded a bit, however we'll see if that's just on the critics, and it could easily finds it resurgence with the industry awards, it does feel like that type of film. Still I no longer think it will be the first film since The Godfather Part II to get three nominations in BSA, in fact I'm not so sure it will be able to get two (however this could easily be the type of contender far more popular with the public/industry than with critics, so I should not overestimate what won so far by too much). Still if it at least gets one, I do think the most likely one is Sacha Baron Cohen for doing something slightly against type with some additional buzz for his successful return to Borat, then followed by Mark Rylance as the previous winner with the Oscar beloved crusading lawyer role (who I could see still cracking the lineup if the film resurges). Following that it seems Boseman could get double nodded. It isn't a huge role, but one could argue it resonates all the more now that he's gone. Boseman could easily become the first actor double nodded in the same year posthumously, and matching James Dean's record of two posthumous nominations. Following that is Leslie Odom Jr. who benefits from a substantial role plus Hamilton love, and from it seemingly decided that he's the one from the ensemble who should be recognized unlike "Trial". Another, at the moment, seems primed for Paul Raci, who is getting the needed critical love to get voters to take notice. The Sound of Metal honestly seems like a film that will do well as long as voters see it, which the critical mentions are essential for. Finally we have potential late breaker in Daniel Kaluuya for the seemingly juicy role in Judas and the Black Messiah. A role that from the trailer seems primed for a win, however we're still waiting on word for the film, although the fact that it is debuting within the academy's window is a good sign. Otherwise for the dark horses, there is David Strathairn for Nomadland, which sounds like the type of nomination that will only happen if there is an excessive amount of love for the film. Bill Murray which seems very unlikely by how low key that film and that role is. And Glynn Turman who won LA critics, however I can't help but feel his greater Fargo performance had something to do with that. I suppose he could happen though if Ma Rainey's does better than expected, however I think it will probably get a similar nomination pull as Fences did (picture, actor, adapted screenplay and just actress instead of supporting actress).