10th Anniversary of Best Actor and Another Official Lineup

Welcome back to my predictions for who will be the eventually reviewed in the main Oscar lineup. This coming up on my 10th go around of doing this, to which I have a couple hopefully fun things to throw in before we get there. Anyways though let's look onto the lineup that shares the name of this blog. I will say this lineup was quite vexing to reduce to five. This as the only person I would place the safe money just to be safe for the nomination is Adam Driver. This as Joaquin Phoenix, while receiving nearly as many industry mentions, is known to be a rather prickly fellow when it comes to the awards trail, and comic book films are never the safest bet. Joker though seems to have jumped over the "prestige" line though with that Venice win/Globe nominations past Phoenix, and to be fair this is technically a previous Oscar winning role. Following Phoenix is previous winner DiCaprio, who is just looking for his first followup nomination and should get it. I do think he could miss out on assumption, despite the strength of his film. Following that I'm putting Bale, who many are not predicting to make it past SAG/Globe nod, although BAFTA should probably be likely for him as well. Ford V. Ferrari will be a tech player probably with him, and I think can get a best picture nomination quite easily fulfilling that "old school" film-making spot. The main reason for me though is that Bale hasn't really missed out, when he's in contention, since he's gotten his Oscar win. This as he got in for American Hustle, The Big Short and Vice, despite only being really being the "passion pick" for Vice. Then there is spot number 5, super passion pick for Cannes, NY winner Banderas, maybe. This is in no way a guarantee with 4 potential contenders also more than hanging around. There is alternate super passion pick Adam Sandler, who is killing it with the critics, though that did not help Hawke who did even better in that regard last year. Taron Egerton, who has gotten all the citations he's been expected to get so probably should be in the five, and I really can't argue that much against him. The two biggest knocks against him being that he was a relatively early release, and that they gave the win to Rami Malek last year for another musical biopic. Egerton though has already shown he's being remembered, and the Academy nominated Joaquin Phoenix for Johnny Cash the next year after giving the Oscar win to Jamie Foxx for Ray Charles. So really Egerton should probably be in my top five predictions. My early NGNG of Jonathan Pryce doesn't appear to be panning out beyond a Globe nod. After seeing the film, I think it is unlikely he can win now based on the somewhat lightweight approach his film takes to the subject matter, however I do think he still has an outside chance for a nomination as in the past years Antony McCarten written films have always performed best with BAFTA and the Academy above all others. Finally there is two time Oscar winner Robert De Niro leading what should be a nominations juggernaut, who has also missed out on both a Globe and SAG nomination, and is no way a guarantee for a BAFTA nod. I still think he has a strong chance if his film shows that extra bit of strength, which it easily could, or just if these previous snubs this season help push him to that nomination.

Supporting actors seems a bit more manageable however as the three P's of Pacino, Pesci and Pitt all seem pretty safe, with strong showings so far and films that are sure to do well with overall nominations.  SAG nominee Jamie Foxx seems primed to be SAG only nomination, given Just Mercy has made no impression elsewhere. So I'll will look elsewhere. Hanks has gotten in the right places this time, though he's undergoing still an Oscar nomination drought since 2000, that one must imagine carries over as some "we've rewarded him enough mentality". One ponders the same about Anthony Hopkins who too has gone on a long Oscar nomination drought, and could easily earn a BAFTA boost. If he is nominated there, he could take that fifith spot, which would be an all Oscar winners category like 2012, or even potentially shake out Hanks, who I'd say is more vulnerable than the P's, given the Academy has brazenly snubbed him before, and his film does not appear to be a major player, or even a minor player outside of him. The same is not true though for Song Kang-ho in Parasite that is seeming poised to be the foreign language film that can and will be a major Oscar player. Even if he misses BAFTA, I think he can get in bolstered by massive love for the film that seems to becoming more and more evident, the same way Roma ended up with two acting nominations last year. The category though actually doesn't appear to be too expansive however allowing for a potential last minute shakeup. Of course only minor shakeups as this category has fairly limited potential contenders, as the only man I'm forgetting who seems in play is the old sea salt himself, Willem Dafoe. He who seems to have the most against him, given his heavily stylized, horror film that doesn't appear to be the industries cup of tea based on the precursors so far. Dafoe though has managed to be the sole nomination for his films two years in a row, so I wouldn't count him out until the nominations are named.