Wednesday 1 January 2020

10th Anniversary of Best Actor and Another Official Lineup

Welcome back to my predictions for who will be the eventually reviewed in the main Oscar lineup. This coming up on my 10th go around of doing this, to which I have a couple hopefully fun things to throw in before we get there. Anyways though let's look onto the lineup that shares the name of this blog. I will say this lineup was quite vexing to reduce to five. This as the only person I would place the safe money just to be safe for the nomination is Adam Driver. This as Joaquin Phoenix, while receiving nearly as many industry mentions, is known to be a rather prickly fellow when it comes to the awards trail, and comic book films are never the safest bet. Joker though seems to have jumped over the "prestige" line though with that Venice win/Globe nominations past Phoenix, and to be fair this is technically a previous Oscar winning role. Following Phoenix is previous winner DiCaprio, who is just looking for his first followup nomination and should get it. I do think he could miss out on assumption, despite the strength of his film. Following that I'm putting Bale, who many are not predicting to make it past SAG/Globe nod, although BAFTA should probably be likely for him as well. Ford V. Ferrari will be a tech player probably with him, and I think can get a best picture nomination quite easily fulfilling that "old school" film-making spot. The main reason for me though is that Bale hasn't really missed out, when he's in contention, since he's gotten his Oscar win. This as he got in for American Hustle, The Big Short and Vice, despite only being really being the "passion pick" for Vice. Then there is spot number 5, super passion pick for Cannes, NY winner Banderas, maybe. This is in no way a guarantee with 4 potential contenders also more than hanging around. There is alternate super passion pick Adam Sandler, who is killing it with the critics, though that did not help Hawke who did even better in that regard last year. Taron Egerton, who has gotten all the citations he's been expected to get so probably should be in the five, and I really can't argue that much against him. The two biggest knocks against him being that he was a relatively early release, and that they gave the win to Rami Malek last year for another musical biopic. Egerton though has already shown he's being remembered, and the Academy nominated Joaquin Phoenix for Johnny Cash the next year after giving the Oscar win to Jamie Foxx for Ray Charles. So really Egerton should probably be in my top five predictions. My early NGNG of Jonathan Pryce doesn't appear to be panning out beyond a Globe nod. After seeing the film, I think it is unlikely he can win now based on the somewhat lightweight approach his film takes to the subject matter, however I do think he still has an outside chance for a nomination as in the past years Antony McCarten written films have always performed best with BAFTA and the Academy above all others. Finally there is two time Oscar winner Robert De Niro leading what should be a nominations juggernaut, who has also missed out on both a Globe and SAG nomination, and is no way a guarantee for a BAFTA nod. I still think he has a strong chance if his film shows that extra bit of strength, which it easily could, or just if these previous snubs this season help push him to that nomination.
Supporting actors seems a bit more manageable however as the three P's of Pacino, Pesci and Pitt all seem pretty safe, with strong showings so far and films that are sure to do well with overall nominations.  SAG nominee Jamie Foxx seems primed to be SAG only nomination, given Just Mercy has made no impression elsewhere. So I'll will look elsewhere. Hanks has gotten in the right places this time, though he's undergoing still an Oscar nomination drought since 2000, that one must imagine carries over as some "we've rewarded him enough mentality". One ponders the same about Anthony Hopkins who too has gone on a long Oscar nomination drought, and could easily earn a BAFTA boost. If he is nominated there, he could take that fifith spot, which would be an all Oscar winners category like 2012, or even potentially shake out Hanks, who I'd say is more vulnerable than the P's, given the Academy has brazenly snubbed him before, and his film does not appear to be a major player, or even a minor player outside of him. The same is not true though for Song Kang-ho in Parasite that is seeming poised to be the foreign language film that can and will be a major Oscar player. Even if he misses BAFTA, I think he can get in bolstered by massive love for the film that seems to becoming more and more evident, the same way Roma ended up with two acting nominations last year. The category though actually doesn't appear to be too expansive however allowing for a potential last minute shakeup. Of course only minor shakeups as this category has fairly limited potential contenders, as the only man I'm forgetting who seems in play is the old sea salt himself, Willem Dafoe. He who seems to have the most against him, given his heavily stylized, horror film that doesn't appear to be the industries cup of tea based on the precursors so far. Dafoe though has managed to be the sole nomination for his films two years in a row, so I wouldn't count him out until the nominations are named.

114 comments:

Bryan L. said...

"Hopefully fun things to throw in before we get there" I'm intrigued :)

Also, bravo Louis, for the 10 years of writing this blog.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I have Sandler getting in over Bale (maybe wishful thinking), but otherwise we’re lined up.

Also, happy anniversary. May this decade bring even worse Discourse than the last!

Aidan Pittman said...

I still think De Niro will get in for Lead Actor despite Golden Globe and SAG misses. If The Irishman is as big of a player as it seems to be right now, then I believe that he could sneak in a la Yalitza Aparicio.

Bale is certainly one to look out for, though; the industry loves him and each time he's gotten a SAG nomination, its lead him to an Oscar nomination. Also, if he gets nominated, then Ford v Ferrari undoubtedly gets a Best Picture.

If Parasite is going to win Best Picture (which I'm predicting right now), then I think it'll need to get at least one acting nomination, which Kang-ho would fill nicely. I'd bet on Hopkins over Hanks right now, but if Hopkins misses a nomination BAFTA then I'm easily switching to Hanks.

Also, I think Uncut Gems could possibly surprise at the Oscars with 3 nominations, Sandler being one of them (other two are Best Picture and Film Editing), mainly because it reminds of how The Tree of Life in how it also missed Golden Globes, SAG, and (probably) BAFTAs entirely but did very well with critics. But right now I wouldn't predict this as I've heard online that some Academy voters are calling it one of their least favorite films of this awards season.

Mitchell Murray said...

Happy 10th anniversary Louis! Great to see a blog of this type lasting so long, and I sincerely hope it will continue to do so.

As for the predictions, there well reasoned as expected. Driver is absolutely safe, and that's about it...also bear in mind that aside from him and DiCaprio (and De Niro if he gets in), everyone else is more or less going to be the "only" acting nomination from their film. Comparatively speaking, that's harder to pull off as a lead than being backed by a notable cast, since there's no chance of possible "bleed over" support from your fellow nominees.

Similarily, the 3 "Ps" are equally safe and I would also throw in Hanks for good measure. This being that although he inexplicably missed out for Captain Phillips, he's still a big enough star to warrant support, and his performance has been consistently cited as the main draw of the film. The fifth slot is therefor wide and open for a number of men - maybe Dafoe will be the passionate vote as he's been for the previous two years. Maybe the love for "Parasite" will leak over to Kang-Ho, or maybe the academy will like to see its "veteran winners" Hopkins and/or Foxx return to the spotlight.

However you look at it, I'm just pleased that this year's awards season is a substantial improvement over the last.

Calvin Law said...

Congrats on the 10 years Louis!

And yeah I think I'm in full agreement besides Sandler or Egerton potentially knocking out Banderas (I think Bale is pretty safe), but I'll stick with yours I think, and Dafoe potentially getting in instead of Hanks.

Calvin Law said...

Louis and everyone else: your predictions for Lead/Supporting Actress? For me,

Renée Zellweger
Scarlett Johansson
Lupita Nyong'o
Charlize Theron
Saoirse Ronan

Laura Dern
Jennifer Lopez
Margot Robbie
Florence Pugh
Zhao Shuzhen (my NGNG since Song does seem like a likely candidate)

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

If the Academy goes for The Irishman like I think it will, I can't see De Niro missing out.

Mitchell Murray said...

Also, for those who have played the first game, what would be your dream cast of a "Red Dead Redemption" film? My prime choices would be as followed:

John Marston - Josh Brolin
Jack Marston - Lucas Hedges
Dutch van der Linde - Jeffrey Dean Morgan
Bill Williamson - W Earl Brown
Javier Escuella - Pedro Pascal
Edgar Ross - Ed Harris
Archer Fordam - John Hamm
Leigh Johnson - Kurt Russell
Nigel West Dickens - Brian Doyle-Murray
Bonnie MacFarlene - Reese Witherspoon
Seth - DJ Qualls
Irish - Domnhaal Gleeson
Vincente de Santa - Javier Bardem
Agustin Allende - Andy Garcia
Abraham Reyes - Oscar Isaac
Landon Ricketts - Sam Elliott (duh)
Louisa - Ana de Armas
Harold McDougal - Damian Lewis
Abigail Marston - Carrie Coon
Uncle - Jim Beaver
Nastas - Rodney A Grant

Mitchell Murray said...

Calvin:

Leading actress -

Scarlett Johansson
Lupita Nyong'o
Saorise Ronan
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellwegger

At the moment, the only one's I'm confident of calling are Johansson and Zellwegger. Both have been heavily praised and taken front runner positions in various circles, with Zellwegger being in your more standard oscar baiting film, and Johansson being in a critical darling. I'm less sure about the other three, though, since Theron has a decent but not infallible spot, and Nyong'o will need the love from SAG to pour over. I would also say Ronan's spot hinges on "Little Women" being well praised by the academy, and her possible competition of Cynthia Erivo eventually being snubbed out.

Supporting actress -

Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie

The Johansson double nom seems very possible at this point, since her placement would be a great way for the film's fans to give their support. Dern will likely ride to coat tails of her movie's primary acting mentions, while Lopez has a juicy, commendable performance in a kind of career capping turn. Again, though, this list also hinges on "Little Women" making a decent impact and "Bombshell" performing as predicted.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Your top 10 Korean films.

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: I'll agree with your predictions, but I'm still unsure about the fifth slot for both BA (Nyong'o, Awkafina, Erivo) and BSA (Johansson and Shuzhen).

Mitchell: That cast would cost $100 million alone lol. Seriously though, great choices, but may I suggest Emily Blunt as Bonnie and Demian Bechir as Agustin?

Emi Grant said...

If one of those fun things for the 10th anniversary of the blog doesn't include a full-length re-write of the performance review for the supporting cast of Plan 9 From Outer Space, I'll be sorely disappointed.

Once more, congrats on 10 years, Louis.

Luke Higham said...

Happy 10th anniversary, Louis. May the blog continue for another decade. :)

BRAZINTERMA said...

If today the Academy announced the nominees and these guys were the candidates my ranking would be like this:

SUPPORTING ACTOR
5º Song Kang-ho
4º Brad Pitt
3º Tom Hanks
2º Joe Pesci
1º Al Pacino

LEDING ACTOR
5º Christian Bale (I hope he doesn't get the nomination)
4º Antonio Banderas
3º Leonardo DiCaprio
2º Adam Driver
1º Joaquin Phoenix

RatedRStar said...

Happy 10th anniversary Louis, its an amazing achievement that a blog like this exists and still exists =D, here is to many more years of Oscar and film discussion.

RatedRStar said...

Time of my predictions, I smell a Daniel Bruhl in here somewhere, where is he!!!!

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Christian Bale - Ford Vs Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

I think Driver and Phoenix are locks, as Phoenix's prickly nature didn't stop him getting in for a lesser momentum building film like The Master. Leo I assume should be a lock, it would be weird to see Pitt get in but not Leo, as for Bale, he has never been snubbed for an Oscar nomination before when in contention and with his film performing he should be OK, that leaves Banderas who has a Javier Bardem in Biutiful situation of his film also being guaranteed a foreign language nomination, which makes me think he gets in, Sixth place for me is probably Egerton who is close, and if there is a surprise, I think its him knocking out Banderas or Bale. If Sandler gets in that would be so cool.

Calvin Law said...

Hanks is in a bit of a Daniel Bruhl situation I think, waning passion for film and all, but then again he is Tom Hanks lol.

RatedRStar said...

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan - Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellwegger - Judy

Johansson, Theron and Zellwegger all feel like firm locks which leaves two spots up for grabs in my opinion, Ronan is loved by the Academy and despite her film under performing, her role was nominated in 1994 for Ryder, and that film also didn't perform too well in the awards season, I feel that Ronan gets in as she has more momentum since she is a previous nominee, then that leaves the cursed 5th spot, most people think that Erivo will miss but I think she gets in, she has got in at every major award, is campaigning hard and has an insanely Oscar baiting role, I see her not as a Daniel Bruhl in Rush but as Bryan Cranston in Trumbo. In sixth I have Lupita Nyong'o, now I would love to see it, but despite the SAG nomination that is what this feels like, a SAG only, I dont see the film having too much buzz compared to Get Out, if she gets in at Bafta then she really does have a chance, then there is Awkwafina whose film is disappearing fast, I can't see her getting in, especially if Zhao misses also.

RatedRStar said...

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Song Kang-Ho - Parasite
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I feel Pitt, Pacino and Pesci are all locks, Hanks may have that Oscar snub curse and his film is under performing despite him getting in everywhere. However he has one big advantage, his role is pure Oscar bait, he is playing a real American Icon who is beloved, now some might say that Saving Mr Banks was that as well but Hanks never got traction, he is here. The 5th spot for this category is so hard to predict, this is where I feel a big surprise happens, is that Kang-Ho, his film is doing brilliantly in a Roma like way, getting SAG ensemble means that they know who these performers are, however players like Hopkins and Foxx are highly regarded in the film industry but their films are fading away, Shia LaBoeuf, Sterling, Snipes, Rockwell and Dafoe could make a play but their films dont have the buzz. I have Hopkins at Sixth but I wouldn't be surprised to see an Alan Alda appear.

RatedRStar said...

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Dern is a lock, I feel that Bombshell is performing well so Robbie likely gets in, Lopez might be the sole flag bearer for her film but she has got a lot of buzz, likely leading to her first nomination, Johansson could miss but with Jojo doing good enough I feel she has enough buzz to get a double nomination, I feel that Scarlett is not safe though, I have Florence Pugh pulling a Tom Hardy in getting in since she has had a banner year and could follow the lead performer into getting in. Kathy Bates would have had a better chance if she had campaigned in Supporting rather than lead at SAG, but her film is still fading away, same with Annette Bening and Zhao Shuzhen whose films are also not performing well enough, I probably have Shuzhen at 6th since critics groups are nominating her but it might not be enough.

RatedRStar said...

I will change my mind on Best Actress and say that Lupita gets in over Erivo since I had forgotten she has gotten in at most critic groups.
I think Cyntiha Erivo is the Daniel Bruhl.

RatedRStar said...

My NGNG prediction would be Adam Sandler or Eddie Murphy getting in over Banderas/Bale.

Anonymous said...

Brazinterma

Lead Actor:
1. Phoenix
2. DiCaprio
3. Banderas
4. Driver
5. Bale (please Academy, change De Niro or Sandler)

Supporting Actor
1. Pacino
2. Hanks
3. Pesci
4. Kang-ho
5. Pitt

Anonymous said...

Supporting Actress predictions (from most likely to least likely)
1. Laura Dern
2. Margot Robbie
3. Jennifer Lopez
4. Scarlett Johansson
5. Lee Jung Eun

Yes, I know I put Lee as the 5th spot and I know it won't actually happen... but deep down I'm hoping Lee pulls a De Tavira last minute, we will see how much the Oscars like Parasite.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: If you've finished Paranoia Agent, could I have your thoughts on it.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

If Parasite had to get an acting nomination (which I think it will), I really hope it's Park So-dam.

Louis Morgan said...

Thank you all once again.

Calvin:

Actress:

Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women

I'll say only the top two seem absolutely safe, but these days film strength often seems to matter the most, though passion can help. Theron then seems in due to the transformation, and that Bombshell is also poised for at least two other nominations (Makeup, SA and maybe even score). Erivo's film only seems like it could have song, which is about as minor of support as a film can get, however she is playing an important figure which sometimes is enough. For the fifth, going for Ronan as mostly a mirror of 94's
Little Women, which like how A Star is Born echoed its previous performances, sometimes the same stories just get the same reactions no matter the time of release.

- Lupita Nyong'o seems likely, although her film probably can only gets into score otherwise, however the genre and overall performance of the film so far gives me pause.

- Awkwafina could be the Globe winner, unless the HFPA does something stupid in rewarding one of the veteran performers, or something awesome and gives it to de Armas. If she wins though, that is a boost right at the tail end of Oscar voting, and could be enough. I'm not sold though only because The Farewell should've been prime for SAG and was completely ignored. In the end the film may only get an Original Screenplay nomination, unfortunately.

I'd say that's about it in terms of contenders, as I would've thought Alfre Woodard would've at least snagged *a* critics' group win to be a last minute passion pick.

Supporting Actress:

Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Scarlet Johansson - Jojo Rabbit

Dern is safe, I'd say. Robbie probably the same given banner year support to boot. Lopez I think could get the Hugh Grant treatment, given her film will do less than even his did, however I'm still predicting her, however she is in a similar boat as he was. Pugh has the banner year, however doesn't appear any of her films will be major players. I think, or at least am hoping, she pulls in though, as a BAFTA nomination seems very likely for her. If Jojo Rabbit is a top five contender, which its SAG ensemble nom and TIFF win indicate it should be, Johansson should be in here as well.

- Bening seems like the HFPA didn't get the memo on a super early front runner not panning out, though I don't know how anyone ever positioned her as such, but I digress. But I don't think she gets in anywhere else.

- Richard Jewell hasn't performed where it should've performed most, so Bates doesn't seem likely despite the SAG mix up.

- Kidman I think can happen, beware Lopez, but hopefully Bombshell's SAG performance was just an overreaction (though I honestly would prefer if she got in over Robbie, but I digress).

- I'm glad Zhao Shuzhen at least got that critics nom to put her on the board, but again the film should've been SAG catnip, so it's hard to predict her. I hope it happens but the odds are against it.

- Alright now that I've heard support for Park So-dam, Lee Jung-eun and Cho Yeo-jeong, I would be astonished if any lady from Parasite can get it. The last second support would need a passionate groundswell, which is impossible when the fan base itself is divided on the favorite.

Tahmeed:

1. Parasite
2. Memories of Murder
3. I Saw the Devil
4. Oldboy
5. A Bittersweet Life
6. The Handmaiden
7. Poetry
8. Burning
9. The Good The Bad The Weird
10. Sympathy for Lady Vengeance

Not yet, but close regarding Paranoia Agent.

Anonymous said...

Louis: When you first started, did you ever think you'd be doing this for 10 years.

Jack Narrator said...

Brazinterma

Lead Actor
1. Phoenix
2. DiCaprio
3. Driver
4. Banderas
5. Bale (please Academy, change De Niro or Sandler)

Supporting Actor
1. Pacino
2. Pesci
3. Kang-ho
4. Hanks
5. Pitt

Jack Narrator said...

SHIT! I forgot to erase Bale's handwriting

Aidan Pittman said...

Louis: Your predictions for both screenplay categories?

Bryan L. said...

Louis: Predictions for the Best Picture lineup as well?

And are you going to do a “Final Oscar Predictions” like you did last year?

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

To be honest, hadn't thought on it much one way or the other.

Aidan Pittman:

Adapted Screenplay:

The Irishman (Winner)
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes

(Though I fear Joker may show up here)

Original Screenplay:

Marriage Story (Winner due to "personal story" selling point)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Farewell
Knives Out

Though I think the bottom two could be anyone's game.

Bryan:

Parasite (Winner)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Ford v. Ferrari

I mean maybe in the comments, but I literally made that post last year due to the cumbersome three paged comments section that had been created at that time.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the visual styles of Sergio Leone, David Lean and Akira Kurosawa.

Emi Grant said...

Louis: So, you're saying that if we get to three pages again you might make the post?

Mitchell Murray said...

Guys, the trailer for "A Quiet Place 2" just dropped and...you can count me on board right now!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od3CH3NrrdI

I mean, I'd watch it for Blunt alone, but Cillian Murphy is just a bonus.

Louis Morgan said...

Watched Sunset Limited, which I thought was excellent. The film was in many ways what I wished The Two Popes had focused on more, this being just a truly gripping conversation on one's philosophy towards life and faith. This conversation was that so effectively realized by both performances, and quietly amplified by Jones's assured direction, that manages to keep it with the actors, however so nicely amplifies that conversation through such careful tweaks in terms of the visual choices and also the use of sound.

Jackson - 5
Jones - 4.5/5(Leaning towards the latter for his delivery of his final speech however.)

Anonymous:

Well let me start with Leone. Leone's work is probably one of the most brilliant juxtaposition of seemingly disparate elements, twice over. The first being extreme grandeur and an extreme intimacy. He loves to give you the sense of his world in such remarkable and stunning details, but that grants as much detail to the most extreme view. This being his his use of faces, a hand movement, notably a squint, Leone realizes such fascinating combination to create such a brilliant operatic nature of his films, that brings both this scale, but still with that remarkable closeness to the characters. Take one of his great moments of direction in The Good, The Bad and The Ugly, of the bridge destruction scene. We get the stunning shot of the bridge blowing up and all the chaos that ensues within it, but as notable is that perfection of his closeup to the Captain's final happiness at seeming the symbol of futility finally gone. Leone achieves the best of both worlds quite honestly. The same is true for his choices regarding the direction visually of what his world's are, this as he captured a grit of his worlds and the beauty of it. This is true even in his city scape in OUTA. He wouldn't gloss over anything showing always a lived in world, but would show the beauty of that world. Leone's visual sense was perhaps his most notable talent, as thinking on it, each juxtaposition is so different you'd think hypocritical, however rather he uses it craft his unique vision that is all his own.

Emi Grant:

No, as like I said I have a few posts planned before the official lineup comes up.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I saw Bombshell, which was less outright politically toxic than I was expecting but still very muddled in that regard. I think my biggest digression with Louis this year on any performance is that I thought McKinnon was easily the MVP despite playing the film’s most oddly conceived creation.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on Jackson and Jones.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Jones & Jackson - (I will say it is always great to seem both of them act, as both are actors more talented than many performances of theirs will often suggest as both too often coast on their expected presence. Here though both actually invest within their characters and give brilliant performances. Jackson is excellent here in a fashioning the past of kind of the more typical Jackson character as the history. This as we see the man deliver his story of his prison history, where he is outstanding in delivering the man's most brutal act with such vivid clarity. Jackson positions this as a pushed back hardship, against the man's hope essentially try to convince the other man life is worth living with the help of God. Jones too very much has the basis of a more expected Jones turn, as few indeed do exasperation as well as he does. The sense of the man morbid depression is palatable of course and rather powerful to be sure. Jones though uses this again as this beginning but not the whole. This initially is as the reactive scene partner to Jackson, and the two are incredible together. Jackson is amazing here though in portraying this sincere expression of a grounded optimism and earnestness of the man's faith without sanctimony. He grants every word of his philosophy a reality, and most importantly a naturalism, as he offers the needed humanity to every ounce of the spoken work. Jones's is great even as he seems secondary at first in portraying the man's reactions towards Jackson's more active, words that are as essential in creating such a sense of both the connection and disconnection in the men. This as Jones brings so much in his passive reaction. This being some sympathy, some interest, but also rigidness. Jones is great by showing the way the words of Jackson's character do mean something to him, a whole lot of different things, even if not quite what Jackson's characters would hope. Jackson is marvelous in delivering the growing desperation of the man to attempt to reach the other man with again that strict genuine caring, as he portrays an ever growing frustration. Jones on the other hand portrays the strict rigidness that is never simplistic but rather revealing the depth of the man's despair that only seems to grow as the conversation continues. This until he finally fully unleashes his own philosophy directly at Jackson, which is this absolutely brilliant display of this internalized nihilistic certainty and this strange anti-passion in way. It is absolutely striking in Jones's work as he shows as great of a conviction not based upon hope, but rather this firm despair that is realized so powerfully by Jones's performance. Although I will admit I haven't seen their competition from the year, their lack of citations at SAG, EMMY or the Globes, seems like a definite oversight.)

Matt Mustin said...

One thing that impressed me about The Sunset Limited is the fact that Jones directed it as well. I don't know what kind of job it would be to direct a two character piece in which you also play one of the two characters, but damn he pulled it off.

Calvin Law said...

Jones really should direct more. Even say The Homesman was a pretty interestingly directed film - and I definitely need to see Sunset Limited then!

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

Agreed wholeheartedly, I'd say if there are any future Harold Pinter adaptations planned, Jones would be an ideal choice for director. Even though the Homesman was all over the place, I'd hope Jones will return to the director's chair sooner than later, as "Sunset" and "Three Burials" are both remarkable works from him as both actor and director.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

I'm hoping that the surprise Louis has planned is the voice acting lineup.

ruthiehenshallfan99 said...

Congrats on 10 years!

Michael McCarthy said...

Has anyone else seen John Mulaney and the Sack-Lunch Bunch on Netflix yet? It's decently entertaining throughout even though a lot of the songs are a bit too long, but Jake Gyllenhaal's sequence towards the end might be one of my favorite performances of his.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Speaking of Netflix, has anyone seen the miniseries Unforgivable? I've seen the first episode, and Kaitlyn Dever is great.

Emi Grant said...

Tahmeed: I've heard so. I thought it was called Unbelievable, though.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Have you given your thoughts on Marriage Story, Joker, Pain and Glory, Parasite and The Irishman? If so, where can I locate those?

Luke Higham said...

Tahmeed: I hope so too.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Emi: My bad, it is 'Unbelievable'.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Your reasons for predicting that Parasite will win Best Picture.

Anonymous said...

I forgot, congratulations Louis for 10 years writing this blog. It made me appreciate film a lot more.

While I know you haven't seen a lot of Justice League and Justice League Unlimited, thoughts on these scenes from the latter show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57zFkL9GSZA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl91v2Mvv94

Razor said...

Congrats on 10 years, Louis!

Bryan L. said...

I think one thing that Parasite has over, say, Roma, is not having to deal with the anti-streaming bias. Otherwise, I too am curious as to why Louis has it as it as the winner for now.

Louis Morgan said...

Ruthiehenshallfan99 & Razor:

Thanks.

Anonymous:

I know I gave my thoughts on Pain and Glory somewhere, never really gave expanded thoughts on Parasite or the Joker, the latter which I will be doing in a likely Oscar nominee review.

You can find my thoughts on The Irishman here:

http://actoroscar.blogspot.com/2019/11/alternate-best-actor-1999-jim-broadbent.html

You can find my brief thoughts on Marriage Story here:

https://actoroscar.blogspot.com/2019/12/alternate-best-supporting-actor-1999_3.html

Anonymous:

An amusing enough moment of an episode I did watch actually, that obviously benefited from a Paul Dini script, even as it perhaps got a little too cute. It at least had a sense of fun, which was sometimes a balance issue I've seen from the episodes I have seen.

Another enjoyable moment honestly, starting so intensely, though nicely subverted with Flash acting more as The Trickster's case worker than his enemy.

Tahmeed:

I will say in part it comes down to the path of least resistance, as first it is what is against its contenders.

-The Irishman, Netflix bias exists, Scorsese has won before (in a win that there is a minority group that see it as only a makeup however most view it as deserved). Criticism, that I don't agree with, over run time, (often times the types who'd binge watch a 10 hour show, but I digress) and been there done that with Scorsese.

-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Tarantino is idiosyncratic enough that he will always have detractors. Tarantino has two Oscars, though never a best picture winner to be fair. His film will probably receive the most backlash , and has total, due to some of his choice. It's definitely a contender, but there is enough for me to predict against it, at the moment.

-Marriage Story, been awhile since a domestic drama has won, so it could happen, but its lack of SAG ensemble really seemed strange given the film's nature (my own opinion aside. It really should've gotten in there, so it isn't over performing as a winner should.

-1917, could happen, however it won't have an acting nomination and is very late. Maybe it has enough juice to win, it will probably win at least both sounds, cinematography and score, but I just can't see it.

-Jojo Rabbit is having strange waves in terms of its overall performance that I struggle to see it as the winner.

So that leaves Parasite. Bong Joon-ho is idiosyncratic as well, but the embrace is clearly there, and this is perhaps his most accessible film (well between this and Memories of Murder). The embrace is there with that SAG ensemble nod, that speaks volumes in the most populist voter overlap precursor. It did not need to get in there to contend, but it did. It's foreign language, however Roma almost won last year, probably would've if it hadn't been produced by Netflix. I could see the push for it to be the foreign language winner, along with sort of a push against the extreme traditionalist pick of Green Book. Plus most everyone seems to love the film, the worst criticisms I've seen from it seem to be, "It's good but it's not THAT good" or "it was over hyped" two of the most groan inducing criticisms for me, and certainly not a major backlash. Not a done deal, and I might be building myself up for disappointment, but so far it's shown to be a true contender. It's gotten over the hump of being embraced, so really if Song Kang-ho gets in, I think it could be our winner, maybe even if he doesn't.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Also, if Louis's predictions about both lineups end up being correct, here's how I think he'll rank them:

Actor
1. Driver (5)
2. DiCaprio (4.5)
3. Bale (4.5)
4. Banderas (4.5)
5. Phoenix (4/4.5)

Supporting Actor
1. Pacino (reading his initial thoughts about The Irishman, and how much he loved the Hoffa subplot, definitely makes me think he has a shot) (5)
2. Pesci (5)
3. Kang-Ho (5)
4. Hanks (haven't seen him) (5)
5. Pitt (4.5)

Luke Higham said...

Tahmeed:
Driver (5)
DiCaprio (5)
Bale (4.5)
Phoenix (4.5)
Banderas (4.5)

Pesci (5)
Pacino (5)
Hanks (5)
Kang-Ho (5)
Pitt (4.5)

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Are there any saves you want to get rid of?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: If there are, your ratings and thoughts on them.

Louis Morgan said...

Tahmeed:

No, as you never know with some long shots.

Matt Mustin said...

Apropos of nothing, but does anyone else think Cillian Murphy could be a really great Iago? Especially on film because they can make very good use of those piercing eyes he has.

RatedRStar said...

Who is everyone rooting for, in regards to the Oscars, like what nomination would make you happy, even if they are expected to get in, what nomination are you gonna go " I would be really happy regardless of some bad nominations if.... got nominated"

There will be decisions made at the Oscars that people won't be happy with but what would you be happy with, what performance or film are you hoping gets nominated? even if it probably will.

Matt Mustin said...

RatedRStar: I'm rooting hard for De Niro.

RatedRStar said...

Matt Mustin: How would you feel if he didn't get in?

RatedRStar said...

I am rooting for Leonardo DiCaprio to get in, I felt something when watching his performance as Rick Dalton, as this desperate struggling actor, I saw something in him which I found very relatable, that of a person struggling in his profession....like me for example, struggling in a job, a job that I am soon to leave. I always wanted Dalton to succeed, to not be killed in the end, to a point when the ending did come, I found hope.

His final conversation with Emilie Hirsch, very much gave that hope, of a person who can finally go somewhere, having struggled for so long.

Emi Grant said...

RatedRStar: I would love either Banderas or Sandler getting in. Mostly because I feel that most people look at them as actors who would only be "Oscar-caliber" performers in dreams. It would be amazing to see them being recognized for (what I'm assuming is also in Sandler's case) their career-best turns.

Also, Willem Dafoe sneaking in for a third year in a row would make me incredibly euphoric.

RatedRStar said...

Emi: I reckon there will be a least one first time nominee getting in Best Actor, just have that feeling.

Bryan L. said...

RatedRStar: Florence Pugh in Little Women. I've already come to terms with Dern winning, so I'll at least be content with Pugh getting in. Also as a way to cap off her 2019 work.

I hope you're right about seeing a first-timer get in, and I hope its' Sandler. Probably a pipe dream at this point unfortunately.

Calvin Law said...

RatedRStar: Zhao Shuzhen. Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor are strong enough in my books for me to be content even if Sandler, Nyong’o and Dafoe miss out.

Zhao losing out would feel a bit painful.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

RatedRStar: Johannson in Jojo Rabbit. I honestly would give her two 5's for Jojo and Marriage Story, with both being such moving, beautiful performances.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your ranking of all the Spider-Man films, including Into the Spiderverse.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your thoughts on Evelyn & When The Wind Blows. Ratings and thoughts on Mills and Ashcroft.

Anonymous said...

Luke, are there any performances from Paul Dano you could see getting a 5 rating.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

1. Spider-man 2
2. Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse
3. Spider-man
4. Spider-man: Homecoming
5. Spider-man: Far From Home
6. Spider-man 3
7. The Amazing Spider-man 2

Luke:

Evelyn is a powerful documentary without a doubt broaching such a difficult subject matter with such a strong personal connection. The simplicity of the design, built essentially on one long personal rumination of each person on the lost person, well walking in just beautiful locations, however this never loses its effect nor does it ever do a disservice to the heart of the matter, that it examines with both a real pain and poignancy.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: I completely agree with your Spider-Man ranking. And I'm looking forward to your thoughts on When The Wind Blows.

Anonymous: I'm quite certain Louis will love him in War & Peace (2016) and there's a chance he could go up to a five for There Will Be Blood.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: What about the first Amazing Spider-Man film.

Calvin Law said...

I'm almost 100% he'll be going up for TWBB. Or at least a strong 4.5. And damn Evelyn sounds like a heavy watch, I might try it but sounds like it'll need a lot of tissues.

And my Spider-Man ranking (no shame here):

1. Spider-Man 2 (5)
2. Into the Spider-Verse (4.5)
3. Spider-Man (4, possibly 4.5 in terms of tongue in cheek value)
4. Spider-Man 3 (3, a full 1000 in terms of subjective entertainment value)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. Spider-Man: Far From Home

The Amazing Spider-Men are about on par for me, the first one is technically the better film but I get more annoyed at what it does with Peter Parker as a character (chocolate milk, really man?) and the second has moments of 'so bad it's good' but also mostly just outright 'so bad it's awful' moments.

Calvin Law said...

Also, Louis, speaking of which could I have your 10 worst ensembles of the decade? For me,

1. Collateral Beauty
2. Life Itself
3. Fan4stic
4. After Earth
5. Grown Ups
6. The Amazing Spider-Man (would be 'higher' if not for Garfield and Stone)
7. Book of Henry (same if not for Lieberher/Martell)
8. The Expendables 3
9. Pixels
10. Nocturnal Animals (same if not for Taylor-Johnson and Shannon)

Miltiades said...

Louis Morgan: From which film is the still in your background with the woman on the dock? The one next to Skyfall and under The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Álex Marqués said...

Any chance you check Succession out? Incredible acting, especially by Strong and Macfadyen

Bryan L. said...

Confession: I actually watched Far From Home after I saw Midsommar in the theater, so I’m wondering if I’m just being extra positive to the former. Still thought it was enjoyable, and I really do like Gyllenhaals performance & the cameo, but hhmmm...

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Will you be watching any of the Disney remakes during the alternates, I would recommend Aladdin to some degree. Naomi Scott's quite strong, Massoud's likeable as the titular protagonist, Smith's a fine Genie and I would love to get your thoughts on Kenzari as Jafar. (Why they didn't get Siddig or even Negahban who plays the Sultan, I'll never know)

Bryan L. said...

Luke: Your thoughts on Mads Mikkelsen as an actor, and your ranking of the performances you’ve seen from him?

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: I really hope you get the chance to watch Weathering with You and Booksmart soon.

Bryan L. said...

Matt: I’m not very well-versed with the Bard, but I’d still like to see Cillian Murphy in a Shakespearean role.

Anonymous said...

Louis, if GoT had been made in the 2000s instead of the 2010s, are there any characters in the series that you think Tom Hardy could’ve been a good fit for?

Luke Higham said...

Bryan: I'll give my response later on.

Anonymous:

Jon Snow (Near the same height as Harington and would bring so much gravitas)
Ramsay Bolton
Gendry

Luke Higham said...

However I do think it would be more convincing for people if they checked out his TV work from the 2000s like The Virgin Queen for example (Which is a rather different tone of performance than what he usually does nowadays).

Anonymous said...

Luke and Louis: I was thinking of Jon Snow for Hardy too. What about 2000s Fassbender? Maybe Robb Stark?

Luke Higham said...

Anonymous: Yes. :)

Mitchell Murray said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Robert MacFarlane said...

Mitchell: Please tell me you don’t watch those alt-right chodes regularly.

Robert MacFarlane said...

My advice to everyone is do not watch the video Mitchell posted. They’re alt-right rage-clickbait scammers who wouldn’t know how to judge art if the Mona Lisa itself popped out of its portrait and castrated them.

Louis Morgan said...

Tahmeed:

I've only "Kind of" watched that one, though if I made a more noted effort I doubt it would make it over even Spider-man 3 (which definitely has entertainment value, even if of strange kinds).

Calvin:

1. After Earth
2. Collateral Beauty
3. Life Itself
4. Yoga Hosers
5. Jupiter Ascending
6 .Gotti
7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
8. Cats
9. Annihilation
10. The Expendables 3

Mitchell:

I think it's garbage honestly. To think Baumbach is not sympathetic towards Charlie (he basically is Charlie) is laughable, he had him go to Halloween as THE INVISIBLE MAN!!!!, the film is not about the "right" conclusion, nor is it about who's right. The film is about essentially the mess that's divorce that can occur even with people who love each other. Dern's character is meant to be extremely biased. The flaws of each person party is shown, as is how each helped to complete and do things for each other when married. The ending is not "And that's how it should be", but rather "That is how it all turned out". Honestly that seemed to be a political take, on what I will say is not a political film.

Louis Morgan said...

Miltiades:

The Talented Mr. Ripley.

Alex:

I did watch the first episode a bit ago, the Adam McKay directorisms turned me off a bit, though I definitely thought it had potential. I might go back to it.

Luke:

I mean, I ought to get it over with and probably watch both Aladdin and The Lion King, since they probably will receive Oscar nominations, though have no great enthusiasm toward either.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Luke covered it.

Louis Morgan said...

Also to everyone else, listen to Robert's advice.

Emi Grant said...

Mitchell: Watched it. I agree with Louis and Robert, it's kind of garbage honestly. More than a real analysis seems like him wanting to assert some sort of biased take on the film which the film is not representing.

Also, his little smart-ass point on Charlie cutting himself being botched is frankly stupid and I can speak from experience here.

Aidan Pittman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mitchell Murray said...

Robert: I do not, and nor do I align with that kind of ideology regularly. I simply posted the link out of curiosity as it was a film many of us have seen, not because I think its the definitive take on the film's themes.

Trust me - I've seen far worse reviews of that sort and probably cringed just as much as you guys.

Mitchell Murray said...

Even more to the point, if guys honestly think that video is so bad, I advise you not to watch some of the garbage reviews of "Captain Marvel" or "Last Jedi" floating around.

Bryan L. said...

Louis: To hop on Miltiades question, what films are the following pictures from in the background? They look familiar.

The eclipse between Memories of Murder and Skyfall
The guy with sunglasses around flowers between LOTR and The Immigrant
The hill between Barton Fink and The Last Emperor

Luke Higham said...

Bryan:
1. 2001
2. High And Low
3. Barry Lyndon

Bryan L. said...

Luke: The eclipse is from 2001? Damn, for some reason, I don't remember it. Thanks!

Jack Narrator said...

Hey guys!

After the 2019 Line Up, tell me what years of Louis re-analysis would you like to see in 2020? The years of reanalysis I wanted to see are: 1936, 1942, 1946, 1958, 1966, 1972, 1976, 1989, 1996, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2016.

Mitchell Murray said...

Jack: Most every year you mentioned, especially 76', 96', 98' and 09'.

Also, just for the record, that video I posted in the link was my introduction to that youtube channel. Upon looking through their playlists, a great deal of their content does seemed geared to the line of thinking people like Robert alluded to.

I feel like I've said stated this before, but my opinions are my own. My way of thinking is shaped by the wide range of media/sources as opposed to one identifiable body, and therefore, any single piece of media I watch doesn't represent my full character.

Anonymous said...

After Louis gave Al Pacino a win, I was more curious to hear about the 1972 reanalysis.

Emi Grant said...

Mitchell: It's ok. I don't think anyone here assumed nor tried to imply anything.

Mitchell Murray said...

Emi: I figured, but I just wanted to say it anyways. I hold a great deal of importance about being fair and balanced in everything I say. Honestly, the only parts of the video that I found truly legitimate were when it got into actual statistics about divorce, and the heavy handedness of Dern's monologue. Most everything else I got the sense of a certain exaggeration, and now thinking upon it more, I now see the real silliness of some of the arguments.

Again, i'll link to anything film related that either seems interesting, or relates to upcoming reviews, but they do not necessarily reflect my own views.

Mitchell Murray said...

Also for the record, I now have a ranking of the 12 "2019" films i've seen, baring in mind that I'll probably be seeing "Little Women" soon.

1) The Irishman
2) Avengers: Endgame
3) Knives Out
4) Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
5) Marraige Story
6) Us
7) Joker
8) Hustlers
9) Judy
10) Captain Marvel
11) Zombieland 2
12) Glass

Mitchell Murray said...

Oh, and I might as well put in my updated SAG ranking:

Actor:

1) Driver (5)
2) DiCaprio (5)
3) Phoenix (5)

Actress:

1) Johansson (5)
2) Nyong'o (5)
3) Zellweger (4)

Supporting Actor:

1) Pacino (5)
2) Pesci (4.5)
3) Pitt (4.5)

Supporting Actress:

1) Lopez (4)
2) Dern (3)

Still REALLY want to see "Jojo Rabbit", "The Lighthouse" and "A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood", but I'm sure when I'll be able to.

Calvin Law said...

I have the slightest feeling that Lopez could upset at SAG. Call it a weird gut feeling.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Here’s my current ranking: https://boxd.it/2KCka

As for the SAG nominees:

Actor

1. DiCaprio
2. Driver
3. Egerton
4. Bale
5. Phoenix

Actress

1. Johansson
2. Nyong’o
3. Theron
4. Zellweger

Supporting Actor

1. Pesci
2. Hanks
3. Pacino
4. Pitt

Supporting Actress

1. Lopez
2. Johansson
3. Kidman
4. Dern
5. Robbie