This year lead actor just seems set to these five, and it is difficult to argue out any of them particularly the top four of Chalamet, Domingo, Brody and Fiennes. All four have films with some other support, all have shown up consistently in precursors so far, it seems right in terms of how the performances fit in their careers, they just seem right. Craig is the easy #5 in terms of predictions mainly because he'd in all likelihood be a sole nominee, and he's one of three A24 has to get in (along with Brody and Domingo). But playing a real person, in an against type performance, after a long career, Craig seems right too, and has shown up most places so far as well. If this is the SAG five there is no reason to doubt it. The only spoilers I can envision at the moment are Sebastian Stan and Jesse Eisenberg. Stan has a problem because both of his performances are well respected and have received recognition leaving him in a strange position. I'd say IF he can show up for just one for SAG then it changes the whole game and he can get backed for that performance but SAG voters would need to makeup their mind so Oscar can. And I'm not predicting that due to his internal vote splitting. Eisenberg I only see if A Real Pain goes further than expected, because he already seems extremely likely for screenplay, maybe producing as well so a third nomination doesn't seem like something voters will feel obligated to do. Furthermore it is the less showy performance than his frauding co-lead, and far less showy than his competition in this category. Anything can happen of course but I do feel very confident in this five even before SAG.
Supporting on the other hand does feel trickier. Culkin and Pearce seem like very safe bets based on their early support and the support for their films. Washington has only missed, when in contention, for American Gangster, so it is hard to bet against the guy who could get in relatively easily for a Shakespearean performance or could get in for an overall flop like Roman J. Israel, Esq. He has an extremely showy role, and while Gladiator II is unlikely to be a major contender, it will be a contender for a few techs, so he probably won't be a sole nominee. Edward Norton getting enough late ink, along with a Complete Unknown seeming a possible best picture nominee, makes him seem like the veteran supporting actor to get in with his co-star. Helps also that he's the only one playing a real person out of the actors in possible best picture nominees, which is always a boon. Well actually except for Clarence Maclin who is playing...Clarence Maclin a fictionalized version of himself. Something that I do ponder has kept him from getting in a few places and could create enough hesitation to keep him out. As much as he has a great personal narrative, Sing Sing, doesn't seem like it will be a top five contender, maybe could even miss the top ten in the end, so I wouldn't be truly surprised if he loses out. Although I won't fully bet against him even if he misses SAG as I could see a pure passion push potentially still getting him in last minute. Otherwise, hanging around is Yura Borisov, who like Maclin could get in later particularly due to potential overall passion even if he misses SAG. Also hanging around still is like Stanley Tucci, but for him to ride along with Fiennes I think he needed to be a little more consistent already in his appearances so far. Also possible is Jeremy Strong, coming off Succession, a Tony win leading to an Oscar nomination seems like something that could happen, particularly if maybe he and Stan could drum up some momentum together...but I think he could also do it alone. Still being a sole nominee in all likelihood makes me lean away from him.
65 comments:
Exact same for me, though I’m not totally confident Craig can’t be ousted by Stan (though I’m not sure which performance)
Louis: Your Best Actress predictions?
HAPPY NEW YEEEAAARRRR, YOU GUYS.
Just wanted to say, perfect pic choice for Brody. I've been rewatching The Brutalist trailer like crazy and I absolute adore that shot. Can't comment a lot on the predictions having not watched a lot of the contenders. All I'm saying is I'm ride or die for Stan in A Different Man.
Also, thank you for 15 years of this blog, Louis. Not only has it taught me a lot into how to look at performances and acting itself, but this blog is a lovely little haven in the internet.
Hope everyone has a good one this year.
My predictions for Actress and Supporting Actress:
Erivo/Gascon/Jean-Baptise/Madison/Moore
Deadwyler/Grande/Qualley/Rossellini/Saldana
Happy New Year and Happy 15th Anniversary to you too Louis.
Louis: Your TV Top 10s and your most anticipated shows for 2025.
Happy new year everyone!
Can't argue against this list, though mainly because I've been largely removed from this year's film crop. All I can add is if Stan does get in, I'm 80% sure it won't be for "The Apprentice". That film is, at best, more liked than loved. He's competing against a similarly praised co-star. And especially because of Trump's win, and Hollywood's general condemnation of him/what he stands for, I doubt they'll want to give him any more fuel.
Also, does anybody here watch the expert analysis videos from "Insider" regarding films/TV? There was a really good one regarding Western movies, which I'll link below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-Bccim8PC8
Predict Rankings for both Lineups, I'd go:
1. Brody
2. Domingo
3. Craig
4. Fiennes
5. Chalamet
1. Pearce
2. Maclin
3. Norton
4. Washington
5. Culkin (A 4 star Lead Performance)
Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the casts of The Fire Inside and Matinee?
Louis, who do you (as of now) think will win Actor and Supporting Actor?
Happy New Year Louis and everyone!
Louis: Your thoughts on Cromwell's scene with Wolsey's daughter and his last scene with Rafe.
Happy New Year to everyone here.
Ayyyyy happy new years everybody.
Happy New Year guys!
Well if these chosen names by Louis were the Oscar nominees then my rankings are:
1. Brody
2. Craig
3. Fiennes
4. Domingo
5. Chalamet
1. Pearce
2. Norton
3. Washington
4. Culkin
5. Maclin
Louis: If you were to write about actresses, what names would you choose for the post Another Year and Another Official Lineup?
Happy New Year, everyone!
I'm getting iffy on Craig, but I'm also not sure who'd replace him. Hugh Grant?
Louis: What are the movies that have the best New Year's Eve scenes?
Anonymous: WHEN HARRY MET SALLY
I'll roll for the Actress/Supporting Actress categories.
Mikey Madison
Karla Sofia Gascon
Cynthia Erivo
Angelina Jolie
Demi Moore
Zoe Saldana
Ariana Grande
Felicity Jones
Isabella Rossellini
Margaret Qualley
Deadwyler might have to be more of a "passion" play, as I'm not sure where else The Piano Lesson could get in (Best Adapted Screenplay maybe?).
Anonymous: The Apartment.
Shaggy: I don't really see what he'd need to change about that title if he were to write about actresses.
Tony: What I think Shaggy meant by names was, "who do you think will be nominated for leading and supporting actress?" Not changing the title of the post
Tahmeed:
Vincent or Max in Collateral
Theo or Luke in Children of Men
Curtis in Snowpiercer
Bryan:
Mikey Madison
Cynthia Erivo
Karl Sofia Gascon
Angelina Jolie
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
I'll admit I think the category could go many different ways, I will need to see one big industry precursor to recognize The Substance without category separations before I can accept that the academy will go for the full embrace, which if they do, there is no longer a thing as an "Oscar film". Madison, Erivo and Gascon seem decent bets, but not quite locked just because of the amount of contenders. I'm thinking either Jean-Baptiste or Fernanda Torres get in via last minute passion.
Emi:
You're welcome.
Luke:
Series:
1. Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
2. Tokyo Vice
3. Slow Horses
4. X-Men '97
5. Shogun
6. Baby Reindeer
7. Ripley
8. The Sympathizer
9. The Penguin
10. Disclaimer
Actor:
1. Mark Rylance - Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
2. Kevin Kline - Disclaimer
3. Andrew Scott - Ripley
4. Richard Gadd - Baby Reindeer
5. Hoa Xuande - The Sympathizer
6. Colin Farrell - The Penguin
7. Hiroyuki Sanada - Shogun
8. Walton Goggins - Fallout
9. Jack Lowden - Slow Horses
10. Cosmo Jarvis - Shogun
Actress:
1. Emma D'Arcy - House of the Dragon
2. Anna Sawai - Shogun
3. Cristin Milioti - The Penguin
4. Cate Blanchett - Disclaimer
5. Ella Purnell - The Fallout
6. Olivia Cooke - House of the Dragon
Supporting Actor:
1. Tadanobu Asano - Shogun
2. Shō Kasamatsu - Tokyo Vice
3. Jonathan Pryce - Slow Horses
4. Maurizio Lombardi - Ripley
5. Fred Nguyen Khan - The Sympathizer
6. Damian Lewis - Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
7. Hugo Weaving - Slow Horses
8. Shinnosuke Abe - Shogun
9. Ken Watanabe - Tokyo Vice
10. Timothy Spall - Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
Supporting Actress:
1. Jessica Gunning - Baby Reindeer
2. Deirdre O'Connell - The Penguin
3. Moeka Hoshi - Shogun
4. Saskia Reeves - Slow Horses
5. Lilit Lesser - Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
6. Rinko Kikuchi - Tokyo Vice
7. Aimee-Ffion Edwards - Slow Horses
8. Sandra Oh - The Sympathizer
9. Emily Meade - The Penguin
10. Rosalind Eleazar - Slow Horses
Mitchell:
Stan is the sole lead in The Apprentice so he's not competing against Strong, and it is not a flattering portrait of Trump.
Anonymous:
Goodman - (Goodman just has an easy comedic presence in playing the shamelessness of the showman, however doing it in a way where he brings the right jubilation in his mischievousness. Goodman manages to bring you into his world and make you have fun with him in the goodhearted nature of his film flaming. I particularly enjoyed his warmth he brings late in just presenting the man's joy in entertaining more than anything even though he uses deception in schemes, the schemes are all for the sake of entertainment.)
Moriarty - 3.5(Like Goodman sells the tone the best, first just as the actress in the film in playing the 50's monster movie acting believably without actually playing it as parody. But then brings the right blunt disregard in her cynical manner as she goes about as a slightly exasperated assistant to Goodman.)
Fenton - (Just a pretty dull performance. He could be worse but he really lacks charisma or really a way of successfully conveying anything but the most surface of emotions.)
Picardo - (Over the top and kind of terrible in his over the topness here. Fails to be funny which is really the problem and way too big overall.)
Miller - (Fun quick cameo from him and I wish they had done more with his character as an "operative" of Goodman.)
Destiny - (Brings just the right combination of earnestness with a disgruntled quality. She believably exchanges between youth and maturation within her performance. There's moments where you very much see the high schooler where you see her enthusiasm for the sport and just going as much to her situation as possible. Destiny in those moments is the inspirational character in the right way. She manages though to convey her character's financial/living situation though as believably, playing the moments of just quite exasperation of someone who has been through more than she should've already, and also at times a shortness that is befitting someone who has too often had to go along with horror or just nonsense. Destiny balances the sides beautifully well to create a natural balance.)
Henry - (Just terrific work as is to be expected from him at this point. Henry brings the right earnest coach energy of course with the combination of toughness and warmth in proper measure. Henry brings the right passion consistently through his performance. Showing the convincing combination however between the coach who wants best for his fighters but also just the down to earth quality of someone who isn't going through an easy situation either. Henry is terrific in the moments of conflict creating the tension between them because he always shows this blunt reality of someone with his own financial realities but still very much has a real passion for his fighter the whole time as well.)
Adeliyi & Aziza - (As the literal and surrogate mother figures they each sort of contrast each other well, one being ever supportive while the other being ever so imperfect consistently.)
Anonymous:
Brody for lead. I'll go NGNG and say Norton in supporting.
Luke:
Shaggy:
Well if you mean predictions here is supporting actress:
Zoe Saldana
Ariana Grande
Danielle Deadwyler
Isabella Rossellini
Felicity Jones
Although only the top two feel "secure" at the moment.
Anonymous:
The Godfather Part II
Luke:
The Wolsey's daughter scene is exceptional work from Rylance and a powerful scene through that because what you get is one of the few scenes where Cromwell himself isn't completely wise within the situation. He doesn't entirely know if his ambition did lead him to forget Wolsey to a degree, and Rylance is amazing in the way he maneuvers between his doubt over the thought, while also portraying his very real conviction to do right by his mentor. The scene is made all the better by Wolsey's daughter not having any of it, and challenging him at every point, where as Rylance excels as the man who is rarely a loss for words, he's as incredible portraying Cromwell for once unable to fully explain himself or get through to her properly. A brilliant scene that challenges his whole relationship with Wolsey and his struggle to rectify it in the perfect way his daughter demands.
His last scene with Rafe is again amazing work by Rylance and just absolutely heartbreaking. Rylance brings so much warmth when we get to Cromwell accepting his defeat by suggesting that Ralph purposefully denounce him to save himself. It is so powerful because you see the grace in the man in defeat, but also that sorrow in that defeat even as he tries to keep a brave face and save his most loyal man in his death. And credit to Thomas Brodie-Sangster who isn't always my favorite actor, however I thought his reactions throughout the scene matched Rylance with such poignancy.
Louis: Thoughts on Richard Gadd and Jessica Gunning in Baby Reindeer.
Luke:
1. Slow Horses
2. Andor
3. Stranger Things
4. Severance
5. It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
6. Peacemaker
7. Alien: Earth
8. Poker Face
9. Invincible
10. The White Lotus
Also completely forgot about Season 3 of the Bear which says something about the season. Anyway I forgot Elliott and Colon-Zayas for the rankings who would be above Kikuchi for the former and below Kikuchi for the latter.)
Louis: Interesting to see you predict Norton to take the Oscar, may I ask why you think so? And have your predictions for the winners in the female acting categories changed at all?
Luke:
Gadd - (I'll admit going in I had my questions about the praise for his performance, as the comedian leads in as a version of themselves doesn't always lead to a great performance. Gadd though does deliver a great performance here in playing some very extreme notes around just the core of vulnerability and insecurity that defines his character. Gadd's performance is one basically never of normalcy and is always having to play into an extreme of some kind. Gadd pulls that off consistently whether that be overt fear, strung out, drugged out, self-destructive mania, traumatic desperation or just intense anger. Gadd pulls each of these out particularly in the climactic monologue sequence where Gadd runs the gamut and conveys every bit of the emotional journey of a character that feels absolutely raw and real. There's not a moment where those extreme notes don't feel real and the intensity behind them are connected so effectively in crafting this troubling experience that defines the man. And he's not always at the 11, even if he is frequently so, but he needs to be. He brings the right quietness to the moments of respite, whether just occasionally being in a state of normalcy or just even bits of joy. Gadd manages to highlight those moments as pointedly as his extreme notes and creates a true journey throughout as he crafts such a vivid revelation of the horrors of his own past.)
Gunning - (Her performance is one that is commendable by being not only good but great in a part that easily could've been absolutely ridiculous or over the top because of the extreme nature of it. Her performance manages to realize nuances despite in no way holding back from the extremes. She hits the extreme note and is properly scary by not hiding just how much of a raw emotional mess the character is. She brings different layers to that though in playing the amount of vulnerability differently and how the vulnerability changes or occasionally fuels an even more violent reaction. She does play it flat, rather presenting the core of the desperation of the character that at times realizes itself as equally vulnerable heartache, fueling just the intense obsession, to the most extreme acts of verbal and physical attacks. Her performance always brings to life the nuanced motivation behind her actions even as she brings the appropriate visceral intensity.)
Tony:
Well it is NGNG for a reason, and perhaps it is too late momentum wise, however this would not be the first time a critical favorite was knocked off the perch, just ask Willem Dafoe. And who knows maybe Culkin's category fraud, and similarity to his Emmy winning role hurt him, you never know. Maybe it is Pearce and we start another trend of villains taking it after Downey. But I've heard he's the wrong type of villain to win (we'll see), and maybe some voters want to avoid a potentially charged speech, although the academy at one time gave Jane Fonda the win twice, so maybe not.
My reasons for Norton are, he is playing a real person, in a transformative performance in many ways, he's doing his own singing and playing (which is a nice extra campaign sell), it is an old school mentor role and theoretically he's the most overdue nomination wise given he's the only prior nominee other than multi-winner Washington.
Right now yes, though maybe I just want to live in denial of Saldana winning for a lead performance, and one where she acts like a dancing snake for some reason...I'll admit the more I think about every aspect of that film the more I dislike every aspect more.
I don't see too many reasons to doubt Madison still, other than the length of her career so far...which counts for something but is in no way unprecedented.
I have to admit All We Imagine As Light didn't quite hit the slow burn sweet spot, which is my first repetition for the year that gradual pacing can be perfect pacing, in this instance, I wasn't always entirely captivated and perhaps because of its often glacial progress within the overall story. Having said that, I certainly didn't dislike the film, and it came to life more often than not in the depiction of two very different nurses. There are other political and social contexts in and around the personal story, which didn't entirely amplify the central story even if the relation with it was clear. There is a nice sense of place, and it is well performed by the two leads in particular. When we had the moments directly of character interaction, even theoretically meaningless moments, I did appreciate Payap Kapadia's attention to details in those scenes, which did grant a particular tangibility in the relationships for the most part. The other part being just some aspects such as how many times we needed to allude to the theoretical promiscuity of one of the nurses, seemed very repetitive with more screen time then needed to make a fairly obvious point regarding the character. But it is not as though I hated those scenes, however I can point to that which probably kept me from embracing the rhythm wholly. Which I didn't reject either entirely, there were a few scenes I liked if not loved, even if I did love the whole of the work.
Kusruti - 4.5
Prabha - 4.5
Kadam - 4
Haroon - 3
Sami - 3.5
Louis: Pretty sure I don’t have any requests left, but once we get to 1989 you better review John Mahoney in Say Anything.
Robert: I second that, hope Cusack goes up for it too.
Tahmeed: There’s a moment in it where he gives the exact same look of contempt he gave Nolte in The Thin Red Line that made me smile so much.
Louis: Any interest in watching What We Do in the Shadows' final season or continuing Squid Game?
just an fyi: for this new year, i have decided to gat myself a Letterboxd account too
Anonymous:
I've seen What We Do in the Shadows's final season, which I liked well enough but the show peaked in season 2 by a substantial margin. We'll see on Squid Game.
Louis: Ratings and thoughts on Schafer and Stevens in Cuckoo.
Louis, I know you've mentioned it before, but even as someone who has followed your blog for almost eight years now, I'm still confused as to exactly why you annually have ten main un-nominated performances that you analyze, and then break them up into two groups of five. What exactly do the two groups each mean?
Anonymous: I mean, does that have to mean something? The Oscars have five, that he also ranks, so Louis always categorizes in fives. I don't think it goes any deeper than that.
Do you WANT to predict a correct ranking for all ten up-front? Because i don't think many people would win any predictions here if that were the case
Wicked Screentime:
Ariana Grande - 1:11:25 / 44.59%
Cynthia Erivo - 1:25:44 / 53.53%
So Grande's definitely co-lead.
Luke:
Schafer - 4.5(A performance that artfully skirts the level of ridiculousness quite deftly throughout by never playing towards it. Schafer always brings a level of reality to the proceedings no matter how silly it gets Schafer brings an emotional reality and conviction consistently. Playing in the first half honestly the powerful sense of grief weighing on the character and just the immediate struggle of trying to figure into this new life, exacerbated by the strange occurrences which Schafer grounds by showing how all of it only makes these feelings of isolation that much more potent. While I stopped believing the film pretty quickly, I believed Schafer the entire time.)
Stevens - 2(Yeah he's actually part of the problem with the tone because he is playing it absurdly arche from the get go so you immediately see him as some obvious mad scientist type, so when he makes his turns they're not at all surprising. He doesn't allude to it then reveal, he's just ridiculous the whole time. I also found him a bit ridiculous without being entertaining here, I often like Stevens but thought he overcooked this one.)
Anonymous:
The separation is simply for the sake of the prediction contest.
Anonymous:
Yeah, hard to argue against that.
Louis: Thoughts on the Mirror And The Light's ending scene.
Louis: What are your thoughts on the rest of the cast of Cuckoo and the cast of All We Imagine As Light?
Tim: Damn it man, cut back on your cocaine consumption 😂😂.
Louis: I understand you have yet to see The Brutalist and that you're only going off what you've heard about the film when saying Pearce may be the wrong type of villain to win. I'm curious, though, if you could point out any past examples of Oscar-nominated villain performances that didn't win because they were "the wrong type of villain to win"
Anonymous: Montgomery in Night Must Fall, Widmark in Kiss of Death off the top of my head when it comes to the earlier examples of that.
Louis: Any changes to your predictions for Picture, Director, and the Screenplay categories?
Luke:
Loved it, because obviously we've seen such scenes depicted before, in fact in the climax of the previous season, so we have that moment, which is made new already by just how amazing Rylance is again in just giving such a distinct life, though I loved the use of Wolsey in the moment guiding him, and maybe would've saved his "ghost" until that scene perhaps could've made an even greater impact...though I liked the other scenes with him just because Pryce is terrific in the role. But the final moment is just perfection where we get the potential paradise for Cromwell as Cromwell describes his idea of paradise here on earth, the paradise he never was able to enjoy, and it perfectly blends some comfort while not mitigating the impact of the tragic end of the series.
Lucas:
Csokas - 3(Actually not as over the top as he might've been and has been. Doesn't overplay the stern dad moments rather brings a genuine sense of frustration, and has real moments of warmth in there as well. His role gets a little repetitive due to the script but not bad work from him.)
Bluthardt - 3(Kind went back and forth in working for me. There were moments where he seemed to much then too little just constantly between scenes he was in. Overall though he worked more than didn't but again something that didn't entirely find the right way into the material.)
Henwick - (Sadly she's gets a "is in the movie".)
Kusruti & Prabha - (Similar in that both performances emphasize just a naturalism to them, although contrasting that in several ways. Kusruti brings a more internalized sense of someone keeping it all in, while Prabha being equally natural in a more extroverted character. Their performances though reflect their places in the culture Kusruti bringing this quiet frustration but dutiful manner of someone who will keep to the society code even though she is burdened by it, against Prabha who brings a certain dismissiveness towards the code as she brings a greater emphasis on someone seeking to enjoy life as she sees fit disregarding what the culture thinks. Where they go is that Prabha remains fairly consistent, but Kusruti brings that quiet frustration into a certain willful determination that feels like a very natural progression of her character by revealing a strength she always naturally alluded to.)
Kadam - (A nice in between ground as the supporting best friend essentially, and just brings the right sort of warmth with a combination of a blunt delivery who perhaps is most comfortable in every sense.)
Haroon - (Perhaps part of my lack of interest in these scenes is he's just kind of mostly there, not bad but doesn't bring much depth to his role.)
Sami - (Instantly grants you a sense of the history of his character and does well in essentially one scene to convey much about his character.)
Anonymous:
So villains who are just wretched without some quality of being a "magnificent bastard" (Daniel Plainview, Hannibal Lecter, Hans Landa, Joker, Fletcher) don't often win in the male categories anyways.
For example, Ralph Fiennes (Schindler's List), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Josh Brolin (Milk), William H. Macy (Fargo), Tom Berenger (Platoon). Not saying that's the only reason they lost, but the academy when they lean towards villains, especially in supporting actor is usually "fun to watch being evil" to some degree type of roles. Which again I don't know if that is the actual case for Pearce, he could be fun to watch, I'll have to see for myself.
Tony:
The Brutalist (Winner)
Anora
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Nickel Boys
Emilia Perez
Sing Sing
A Real Pain
Director:
Corbet (Winner)
Baker
Ross
Audiard
Villeneuve
Adapted Screenplay:
Conclave (Winner)
Sing Sing
Dune: Part 2
Nickel Boys
I'm Still Here
Again it is the 5, maybe it will be one of the worst screenplays ever nominated in Emilia Perez, but I could see the writer's branch rejecting that (as they often do with musicals anyways) for one of their out of the box choices, and I'm Still Here seems like a good enough call.
Original Screenplay:
The Brutalist (Winner)
Anora
A Real Pain
Hard Truths
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Top three seem obvious you can sell me on a lot afterwards. Hard Truths seems possible even without Jean-Baptiste. And again maybe Sacred Fig as another out of the box choice by the writer's branch.
Again waiting on clear unquestionable industry support for me to jump on the Substance. Which so far it underperformed a little with the shortlist and although it got the Ace, it was in the comedy side where it didn't exactly push out anything one would call a big competitor.
Louis: Macy's a tough one in Fargo though because he is so pathetic that he doesn't get the "fun to watch" thing there, BUT, he's also hilarious so he's fun to watch in that way.
Louis: Where would you rank Yumeji Tsukioka for Lead Actress 1955.
Ratings and thoughts on the cast of Forever A Woman.
Matt:
Though on that point they also tend not to be too big on overtly pathetic characters for the win, unless they get some kind of redemptive or triumphant moment, which Macy decidedly does not get.
Louis: Ah, that makes sense. I'm curious, though, if you'd say Lewis Strauss last year was a "magnificent bastard." Was that a villain people enjoyed seeing in a similar way to, say, Ledger's Joker or Hans Landa?
Perfectionist:
...
...
...
...
...
Huh?
Luke:
#3.
Tsukioka - 5(Her performance is great in managing to realize what is really a very complicated arc to realize. As it would be one thing to have her portray just growing independence against first her husband, then society to a degree, which she does portray this well in bringing initially just being frustrated to the point of confrontation which then expands towards more overt confidence particularly in her interactions. What complicates this is it gets instantly combined with her facing a cancer diagnosis and dying just as she finds independence. So she has to convey that while also portraying the intensity of the physical and mental suffering of facing her own death so suddenly. And Tsukioka manages to find an essential balance in her performance where she does bring that raw sorrow, but manages to find the glints of hope and confidence in creating the strange dichotomy of finding this way of living finally just as she's dying. A concept that could've been just ridiculous or at least unbelievable however Tuskioka manages to not only make you believe it but grants it a real power.)
Hayama - 3(He was okay but I think a little bland at the same time, and the whole aspect of his character I found far less interesting.)
Mori - 4(The part of the film I wish there had been far more of and had basically been more of the male roles combined into him. Because he is great in his one big scene bringing so much nuance in reacting to Fumiko being interested in him, while also being clearly faithful to his wife while also wanting to give some tenderness and support to a woman he still he cares about. Mori does it all in mostly just reactions and is absolutely wonderful in his one scene. A shame it ends up being his last scene, because the more Mori the better.)
Anonymous:
No, in fact I wasn't instantly sold on Strauss/Downey winning because of that fact, though I wouldn't say he completely falls into a wretched villain exactly because he has a level of emotional vulnerability that we get a window to that keeps him from that on a certain level. However Downey was helped by the fact that none of the nominees that year were kind of easy Oscar roles. Ruffalo and Gosling were broadly comic (which the last time someone won for such a performance in Supporting actor was Kline), De Niro was in some ways a "magnificent bastard" however the real life crimes of his character were so horrible it kind of counteracted that, and then Brown was only ever in the "nomination is the reward" conversation.
Tim: I was kidding. The comment in which you refered to anonymous, it seemed a little feisty lol.
Louis thoughts on the BAFTA longlists and Oscar chances of each of the acting nominees who made it.
Anonymous:
Prediction wise major misses for Torres and especially Jolie (though Maria also missing in cinematography and costumes suggests maybe there was some issue with getting voters to see it). There usually is at least one performer who makes it beyond the BAFTA longlist snub, but still not a great sign for either. Also notable is Eisenberg and A Real Pain missed in actor/picture respectively suggesting some weakness for the film there. Also there is The Substance, but again wake me up in the final five or if it hits SAG. Also sadly Emilia Perez will be a nomination juggernaut, expected so given Netflix backing but here's hoping buyers remorse will hit voters at some point. Everything else more or less did what it needed to/expected to, though just like with ACE I guess The Brutalist keeps missing in editing which one can argue length and yes Killers got in last year at the Oscar, but Schoonmaker is a legend of the category. Oh and watch out for Winslet pulling a Nyad.
Quality Wise:
Those nominations for Lee and Perez are all trash. I mean Lee in screenplay? Really? Certainly many good choice in there otherwise though, hopefully those make the final five.
Anonymous:
Actress:
Adams - Still think her peak is probably SAG.
Erivo - Ever more likely.
Moore - If gets in SAG, she's in and maybe win contention.
Gascon - Ever more likely.
Winslet - Again feelings of Nyad.
Jean-Baptiste - No surprise to make it here, though her film overall didn't do amazing, will need to get in the nominees to even consider her for Oscar.
Abela - Silly BAFTA longlist nom only would be my guess.
Madison - Ever more likely.
Kidman - In terms of of the Oscar vet, important to get in over here in Jolie but not sold on her as definite particularly as her film didn't do great overall either.
Ronan - Needed this VERY badly but will need to make the final nominees even more.
Actor:
Brody, Domingo, Chalamet, Fiennes, - All where they were.
Craig - Only nomination seemingly confirmed which does show weakness but who can get in over him...
Patel - Nope. BAFTA loves him though.
Grant - BAFTA loves him, critics choice and Globes, he is racking up some mentions but still don't quite see it yet. But who knows maybe voters will want to "makeup" for missing for Florence Foster Jenkins after having hit both BAFTA and SAG for it.
Law - Nope.
Ben Adir - Nope.
Stan - There he is. For only the Apprentice as well, which did quite well here overall. I could see him knocking Craig out.
Supporting Actress:
Paz - No, even though she'd be a better choice than Gomez.
Grande - As expected.
Watson - Nice get, maybe she surprises here but I don't see her going further.
Jones - Essential get after a few misses.
Rossellini - Looking better and better for her as long as her film keeps its momentum.
Curtis - Given Anderson didn't show up here, this feels like a very random nomination.
Qualley - Again if it goes the distance, she definitely should be in with Moore.
Austin - Only other support for the film, maybe the random BAFTA nom but no more than that.
Gomez - Ugg and unfortunately keeps her in the conversation.
Saldana - As Expected.
Supporting Actor:
Maclin - Great get for him, though I don't think it exactly matters if he misses here in the final set.
Washington - Same for him. Though maybe voters will want to finally change that BAFTA fact.
Norton - Solidifying his position, and the film overall did amazing...so maybe my prediction isn't so foolhardy.
Pearce - As expected.
Dickinson - I could see a random nomination for him here, but that would be BAFTA only.
Strong - Again if with Stan, strengths both of their chances to give a small wave of support for the film.
Culkin - Supporting still? But as expected.
Eydelshteyn - A bad mention for Borisov as the last thing he needs is favorite of the cast confusion.
Tucci - Still alive.
Borisov - Good mention but getting in with his co-star does dilute his momentum slightly.
Anyway out of all these, the only change I *might* make is moving Moore over Jolie maybe. Still waiting for SAG. Oh forgot, Deadwyler missed but that honestly didn't even surprise me, if she misses SAG though, then she's done.
Louis: Where would you rank Masayuki Mori and Ryōji Hayama in Forever a Woman?
Obviously disappointed Joan Chen and Fernanda Torres didn't make it in here but I think Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor's omission annoys me the most.
Also those Emilia Perez, Lee and Outrun nominations are quite yikes.
Calvin:
I have to admit sadly I gave up on Chen a long time ago.
I did not notice that screenplay and director nomination for Outrun. I have to say they were extremely lazy with the female director spots for that and Lee, and seemed to just check the first name they saw, given they had much better options like Kelly O'Suillivan, Anna Kendrick, Maura Delpero, Rachel Morrison, honestly I'd say Zoe Kravitz or Arkasha Stevenson would've also been much better choices.
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