Another Year and Another Official Lineup

As usual my annual predictions for the official Oscar lineup for Lead and Supporting Actor.

For lead I've once again gone with the SAG five all whom seem they're in a pretty good position, as four of the five are "transformative" roles, that voters typically love, and four of the five are playing real people another bit of voter cap nip as well. Mortensen and Cooper, are both well loved by the academy and with their films apparently being big players they should coast to their nominations. Mortensen after all got in his last two times for films that were otherwise wholly snubbed, so it shouldn't be too difficult when he has other nominations for his film. Malek and Bale's films are not beloved, critically, however they have hit all the right places so far, and even negative reviews of their films typically painted them in a positive light. Malek's film in particular also has over performed so far with the televised awards, and I'm starting to get an Eddie Redmayne vibe from him (especially since the academy can award Cooper other places), though I won't rush to conclusions. The question mark then is John David Washington, the son of academy mainstay Denzel Washington, who despite a random misses in a few less important precursors, has gotten the most important ones when it comes to predictions. I do think he seems pretty set for a nomination. Voters will sometimes forget the younger lead of a film, however he's already been recognized multiple places so that doesn't seem to be the case. The only other hiccup might be a BAFTA snub, his old man has never been nominated there, which can open for another contender to gain ground. It needs to be a real contender there though, for example if critical darling Ethan Hawke shows up there then Hawke has a serious chance, however if say they go for say Steve Coogan in Stan and Ollie, it probably won't translate. Washington seems well protected given the love his film has received as opposed to his seemingly main opponents for the position in Hawke and Ryan Gosling whose films have under performed so far beyond the critics. If the film is doing as well as it has been so far Washington should be an easy inclusion. The other four seem pretty well protected barring a "buyers remorse" regarding Bale given the extreme shift between the twitter hype around Vice that broke down once the film was actually reviewed. This five though seems fairly likely, so I won't second guess it. Hawke would probably be my #6 in predictions, but critical darlings have been left off before. 

No, your eyes aren't fooling you that too is the SAG lineup. Driver and Grant seem quite safe as even when their films have under-performed they've still made it in. The same goes for Ali whose category fraud seems likely to be ignored, since you know he shows up like 10 minutes into the film before he becomes co-lead. Easy second nomination for him given the historical figure, love for the film, the size of his role, and afterglow love after his win two years ago. That leaves Sam Elliott who has been has been making strives in the last few years seemingly to be taken more seriously as an actor beyond just his Sam Elliott style presence. That could helps towards some recognition for A Star is Born. His role is fairly small though, and he was snubbed at the Globes. They obviously have no overlap with the Oscars however it shows that even if a group loves the film they can ignore Elliott. His nomination would be a pivotal part in terms of seeing if the Academy loves A Star is Born or simply really likes it. Now that leaves a certain part of the Internet's favorite, Timothée Chalamet. Well his film has not taken the world by storm in any quality. He's not the critical favorite or anything like that, but he's gotten in at Globes and SAG. He seems like the type that can miss given his film's reception however. The reason I'm predicting him though is the same reason I predicted Robert Duvall for The Judge, back for 2014. There is just such a small field to select from (in academy terms of course, it would be nice if they'd get a mind of their own since in reality there are plenty of worthy candidates to choose from, however the field "selected" for them by the precursors is small). So it might not matter. The few alternatives that have found more "important" recognition are Sam Rockwell, and Michael B. Jordan. Jordan, despite his film doing well with SAG, was ignored so he seems unlikely. Rockwell got in at Globes however they went gaga for Vice in a way that may not carry over given its lack of critical success. Rockwell's role is pretty small, to the point if the Academy just does love the film I could see them randomly go for his co-star Steve Carell who has a slightly larger role in the film. That's saying they even look elsewhere. There are few critical players, like Russell Hornsby in The Hate you Give and Steven Yeun in Burning, however those would both be huge surprises if that were to happen, given that between the two films they'd probably at most get a single nomination, that being Foreign Language film for Burning. It just seems unlikely so rather than becoming creative it seems far more likely for the academy to default what's come before them. There is a chance for a dark horse contender to be introduced through BAFTA, possibly Nicholas Hoult in The Favourite, or Daniel Kaluuya in Widows, through some homegrown support, but even the likelihood of this seems ever slimmer as they've been consistently ignored even when their films have been recognized. Of course with these two lineups, as well as Actress, lining up with SAG in my mind, that seems like a little too much solidarity between the groups. After all five nominees didn't repeat last year, 3 the year before that, and a full 7 the year before that. So there should be a few shake ups, however it isn't easy to foresee them outside of supporting actress at the moment.