Friday, 17 January 2025

Alternate Best Supporting Actor 1985: Treat Williams in Smooth Talk

Treat Williams did not receive an Oscar nomination, despite being nominated for an Independent Spirit Award, for portraying Arnold Friend in Smooth Talk. 

Smooth Talk follows a teen girl Connie (Laura Dern) exploring her sexuality leading to danger. 

The most concrete danger comes in the form of Treat Williams playing an older man, Arnold Friend who rides around in a convertible with his name plastered on the side. Although he isn't truly important to the film until just before a full hour in, we briefly see Williams as we follow Dern's Connie as she's going around town flirting, though not really quite sure herself when it comes to her precise decisions, but one of her interactions does briefly lead her to interact briefly with Williams's "Friend". Williams doesn't necessarily make an impact majorly one way or another as his character notes "I'm watching you" to Dern's Connie, though Williams delivery could  be inappropriate joking, sleazy, or creepy, however his appearance is merely a brief establishment of the character. A character who returns to the focal point of the last act of the piece, as Connie is home alone when Friend, and another man appear on her front door in broad daylight. This sequence is very much what takes the film to another level, as it is the purest element of the adaptation of the short story the film is based on and where Williams's performance is the essential facet to the success of the entirety of the overall film. Williams's performance is one of those performances where an actor has a mastery of the material where the brilliance of his work is just how easy he makes it all seem. Because there's nothing easy about the role that would be so easy to fall into over the top cliche, or fail to reach the true insidiousness of the character. Williams avoids that but he goes one step beyond because what he manages to do is be both supernatural yet also absolutely real, which is quite the disturbing trick to pull off. 

Initially Williams does seem just a man passing by, where the danger and potential threat bubbles just beneath. As he introduces himself as watching you, and going for a drive, Williams again brings a jovial quality, that he may just be a man inappropriately joking with a young girl, but it won't go further than that. However Williams's delivery of certain words like how he emphasizes and twists to "go for a ride" with sudden euphemism alluding to a disgusting lust of his own that we know that Friend isn't there just to joke around. As the conversation continues, which Connie goes from being intrigued by to terrified by moment to moment, Williams brings this supernatural quality, as he almost seems an embodiment of the devil with this sly smile as he begins to tell Connie exactly what she will do and exactly how much he knows. Williams's smile speaks to anything but happiness or concern for Connie, as the intention behind that smile always is ever present in the viewer's mind. Williams has the titular smooth talk where Williams's confidence is overpowering in a rather disturbing way, because you can entirely see where he would be successful in the way he does intrigue Connie. Williams's presentation of a simple charm, though elements of his performance would theoretically be potentially charismatic, though it's hard to speak of charm in such a situation, there is also an almost omnipresent element within that charisma. When Friend starts to talk about Connie's family being at a barbecue with exact details about what they are doing, Williams makes Friend almost otherworldly in the command of his words where everything he says seems to cut so deeply into Connie's consciousness, and Williams performs it all with such eerie magnetism. 

But as much as Williams makes him the devil, he also makes him the skeevy man he is, who is disturbingly capable in this sickening arena. When he continues to speak to Connie and notes that they'll be "lovers", Williams still speaks with that same easy confidence of broaching the subject, forcing the notion on Connie but with the accentuating in the edges of the line and in his eyes the very clear lustful motivation behind Friend. Although at a certain moment, when his buddy in the car makes a noise, there is a change in the approach and the awful humanity becomes all the more evident. When Williams performs the verbal attacks on the other man, his performance suddenly loses any ethereal quality, and suddenly he's just a very scary man telling his accomplice to stop screwing him with his plan. The immediacy of the viciousness in his delivery Williams makes Friend that much more dangerous because he becomes truly unpredictable. It twists the rest of his performance further as he returns to his calmer voice with his urging towards Connie to let him in and making veiled threats of how things like a screen door won't keep him back. Williams's work becomes that much more oppressive with every word you see the man offering himself but also within every delivery creating the sense of the very real menace that exists making it only a horrid inevitability that Connie will eventually go with him. Williams delivers a terrifying performance here, one that is in broad daylight, with never any on screen violence yet it is one of the most oppressive and menacing performances you'll see. As Williams makes it so, by making it seem so easy in the way he is captivating, where we see him both as a demon from hell where nothing escapes his sight, however never is he less than real in creating the most disturbing of human behaviors. 

63 comments:

Louis Morgan said...

Bryan:

The Brutalist 1960's directed by Sidney Lumet:

László Tóth: Kirk Douglas
Harrison Lee Van Buren: Burt Lancaster
Harry Lee Van Buren: Robert Redford
Maggie Van Buren: Piper Laurie
Gordon: Paul Robeson
Zsófia: Sondra Locke
Audrey: Eleanor Parker
Attila: Hume Cronyn
Leslie Woodrow: Otto Kruger
Erzsébet Tóth: Eva Marie Saint


The Brutalist 1970's directed by Francis Ford Coppola (which I suppose the film could've been improved if Brody had a time stopping power for no reason and at some point repaired his eye with super metal after it is shot out by a child assassin followed by a scene where holograms pop out of his head for no particular reason):


László Tóth: Marlon Brando
Harrison Lee Van Buren: Jason Robards
Harry Lee Van Buren: Harrison Ford
Maggie Van Buren: Tuesday Weld
Gordon: Robert Earl Jones
Zsófia: Shelley Duvall
Audrey: Shirley Jones
Attila: Harold Gould
Leslie Woodrow: Raymond Massey
Erzsébet Tóth: Anne Bancroft


The Brutalist 1980's directed by Milos Forman:


László Tóth: Alan Arkin
Harrison Lee Van Buren: Gene Hackman
Harry Lee Van Buren: Jeff Daniels
Maggie Van Buren: Geena Davis
Gordon: Robert Guillaume
Zsófia: Jennifer Jason Leigh
Audrey: Jessica Walter
Attila: Jerry Orbach
Leslie Woodrow: Eddie Albert
Erzsébet Tóth: Jill Clayburgh

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Lakshya - (Mostly a physical performance quite literally however he does bring enough low key charm in his early scenes to set up the fall that takes place throughout the rest of your room. And there he brings just basically losing any hope and going from depicting an intense sadness to just an intense hate. Something he carries within his physical performance going from defense in his early scenes, to focused and intense intention of killing the rest of the time. Bringing with it the sense of physical exhaustion essentially with his moral exhaustion showing him to be a husk towards the end of the film in more ways than one.)

Juyal - (His performance just accentuates punchability at every point, as brings just such a smugness to every beat of his performance, making a villain you absolutely hate. Even when the tides are turning against him the emphasis of his performance consistently is this deferring of guilt and maintaining the same attitude of a man who has no regrets with what he has done and feels as though he has nothing to lose.)

Vidyarthi - (His performance acts mostly as contrast to the less immediately hateable villain though he still brings his own menace, however with the sense of a tempering of the extremes. Bringing more of quiet pathos even within the cold menace, creating much more the sense of somewhere who did care more about his own family than the killing unlike his relative.)

Maniktala - (Brings just the right sincerity in her performance to create the appropriate stakes early on then believably grounds the initial action scenes in portraying real fear and anxiety within the situation. While eventually making the most out of her two final moments in providing impact by providing one of the few innocents in the film in a genuine fashion.)

Anonymous:

Except for Mikkelsen's bizarre bye bye, no one stood out to me as particularly good or particularly bad.

Matt:

Richard III:

Richard III: Willem Dafoe
Buckingham: Ralph Ineson
Edward IV: Ciaran Hinds
George: Simon McBurney
Queen Elizabeth: Nicole Kidman
Lady Anne: Barbara Hershey
Henry: Robert Pattinson

Macbeth:

Macbeth: Nicholas Hoult
Lady Macbeth: Lily-Rose Depp
Duncan: Stellan Skarsgard
Malcolm: Alexander Skarsgard
MacDuff: Robert Pattinson
The Porter: Willem Dafoe
The Witches: Something extremely creative.

Lucas Saavedra said...

Louis: What are your top 3 directing moments for The Straight Story?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on the cast.

Marcus said...

Louis: When you have time, your extended thoughts on Lynch as a filmmaker?

Robert MacFarlane said...

I love how his body language goes from James Dean posturing to almost literally snakelike. Demonic work.

Also, any chance he can be upgraded for Prince of the City? He's actually my #2 that year to Hoskins.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Is Watts a 5 or still a 4.5 for King Kong and is she #4 for Best Actress 2005.

Thomas said...

Watts should be above Huffman and Theron.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Dern - (A fascinating performance in terms of portraying age as the whole character is designed both to be working within the world of wanting to be an adult, while still very much being the child. Dern is great in embodying this element so naturally, while being fairly young herself, there are moments where she just naturally slides between the nature of maturity, which in itself is never a singular definition in her performance. Part of her is the, for the lack of a better word, horny teenager who is just playing around in dangerous territory and just being a silly teenager. Completely naturally moving between the two while conveying the certain sense of need for something that she probably couldn't fully describe herself. This is contrast to the scenes with Place, where she presents the constant frustration which she manages to be both just the rebellious teeanger ready to be annoyed at everything she does, while also just being constantly frustrated by seeming always wrong. Again Dern bounces back between seeming disagreements naturally as just part of her experience. Dern never plays into cliche and is an incredible host, just honest she is no matter what the quality of the experience she is depicting. Her big scene with Williams though is amazing work because of how well Dern articulates, the interest in the older man, the sense of concern for herself, the vulnerability of the threat to her family, Dern manages to make it intensely disturbing not by playing constant fear but actually by maneuvering through the actions so naturally despite the innately unnatural horrible situation.)

Berridge - (Again interesting to see her so differently, from what I've always known her best for, and only for. Berridge's performance as the "good daughter" brings the right contrast to Dern as this innate seeming empathy for her mother constantly with a quiet judgment in her reactions towards Dern where she wavers rather effectively between seeming to be concerned but then quietly cold at the same time. Creating the natural perspective where it seems she's an ally in moments but also comes to represent the same perspective as her mom frequently enough.)

Place - (Delivers honesty on the suffering mom role by managing to always bring the same sense of genuine concern between when her characters become frustrated and stern to her daughter and when she's trying to reach out. Behind it all Place brings the same sense of a woman trying her best to do what she thinks is right, and carries that earnestly particularly those especially moving moments where she tries yet fails to connect.)

Robert:

Well I've only seen the film once, not really in the best of circumstances either, so I wouldn't rule it out.

Luke:

No changes.

Emi Grant said...

Louis: Did you catch the Severance season 2 premiere?

RatedRStar said...

Williams is good in Prince of the City, I really think film is quite flawed though, that run time is ludicrous.

Lucas Saavedra said...

Louis: Do you think Nicholas Hoult is similar to Ralph Fiennes?

Robert MacFarlane said...

RateRStar: I actually love the movie. I wouldn't be surprised if David Simon has it in his top 5 favorites.

J96 said...

Louis, thoughts and cast rankings on The Last of Us Season 1? Have you already written them? Where can I find the post if you have?

Tony Kim said...

J96: He hasn't seen TLOS. If you want to find his thoughts on something, I'd advise Googling something like the following -
site:actoroscar.blogspot.com "search term".

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on this scene in terms of acting

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DlDJL03hMY4

Tim said...

could you add Christopher MacDonald and Vin Diesel in The Iron Giant to the 99 ranking?

Louis Morgan said...

House of Usher Cast Ranking:

1. Bruce Greenwood

*gap*

2. Carl Lumbly
3. Willa Fitzgerald
4. Mary McDonnell
5. Mark Hamill

*gap*

6. Samantha Sloyan
7. Kyleigh Curran
8. Malcolm Goodwin
9. Katie Parker
10. Zach Gilford
11. Rahul Kohil

*gap*

12. T'Nia MIller
13. Carla Gugino
14 . Michael Trucco
15. Matt Biedlel
16. Crystal Balint

*BIGGEST GAP*

17. Ruth Codd
18. Sauriyan Sapkota
19. Daniel Jun
20. Henry Thomas
21. Kate Siegel
22. Igby Rigney
23. Aya Furukawa

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on Greenwood.

Louis Morgan said...



Emi Grant:

Not yet but I will.

Lucas

Not exactly, I feel he has a naturally lighter presence than Fiennes, though similar in both being incredibly talented, and best when not playing the more typical leading man type performances.

Luke:

Greenwood - (His performance isn't one where he is dealing with necessarily better material, he just knows exactly how to approach each and every scene to get the absolute most out of it. Greenwood specifically never plays into a type or goes for the broad stroke, unlike much of the rest of the cast, and rides the tone shifts so effortlessly. One of the reasons why is Greenwood seeks to craft a real person beneath it all first and foremost, though a dynamic actual person who can exist in such an extreme supernatural situation. On the surface he does have that ease of the amoral CEO but Greenwood knows to not overplay the element, having the natural ease of someone who just has the power and doesn't need to brandish it at any point. He's got the calm, cool and really cynicism down to a t. His particular delivery of the lemon speech could've been silly, if not for Greenwood's delivery where he dances around magnificently between a joke, a sale, and then blunt truth in revealing what the idea of a simple thing can be for him. Greenwood can get out the sort of comic moments by knowing how to be playful within the role and play into the concept of the businessman where everything is for sale, and just be captivating in the way he can run through the sometimes ropey monologues with a great ease, something that again trips up almost every cast member where there is a degree of falseness to it. Greenwood doesn't rise above the lines, he sells the lines, he makes the lines believable and in turn the whole series believable when he's onscreen. But when playing into the evil of the character Greenwood is amazing because he finds so much nuance throughout the piece, and even though really as written the character has no real doubts, Greenwood naturally finds the sense of guilt. He doesn't excuse, rather he shows that it is something his character does consider but is able to get past. There are breaks in his control where he lets the vulnerability reveal itself, not as something that makes him do something good but as something that is in him that he covers up. Granting depth to his character and not just be a one note fiend, despite still definitely being a fiend. Even when dealing with the supernatural elements Greenwood's performance brings a reality better than anyone in his reactions of fear, but even speaks of them with such measured confidence that you believe in them too because there's so much weight in Greenwood's delivery. Even what they do with his character's wife, that Flanagan wants to be deeply affected without doing any of the work, as the character barely leaves an impact in the past scenes and the two actors in those scenes have limited chemistry. But again Greenwood, like an absolute pro, brings so much heartbreak into the key moment, and genuine pathos in the delivery of the poem so bluntly, that again if the performance was any less than completely amazing, Greenwood made those moments work for me. Again the fact that I can give thoughts at all, says so much of his work, because I knew there was gold to be found with him from his scenes, because I found little else worth note, but Greenwood made it worth watching (though I would recommend just skipping to his scenes if anyone actually decided to watch it).)

Anonymous said...

Louis, thoughts on the The Brutalist AI controversy?

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Unfortunate for the art but at least they did hire an artist for part of the process. The audio work for Brody and Jones I'll need to see a bit more on the specifics than what was in the article regarding the extent of it before I can make more specific judgments. I will say given how much of a point AI was with the SAG and WGA strike I am truly baffled that the editor of the film was so open about it.

Matt Mustin said...

I...do NOT like how glib that editor was about the whole AI thing. Like he just doesn't get why people would be upset by it.

Matt Mustin said...

Also "We just used it to correct a couple of mispronounced letters here and there" WHY? Why bother?

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

The justifications for it seem a little convenient, 'not even wanting native speakers to critique' makes me wonder if even more of it was used in the editing phase than admitted to. But even if the editor's being wholly transparent...were dialect coaches not an option?

Matt Mustin said...

Tahmeed: UH HUH

Louis Morgan said...

Matt & Tahmeed:

Yeah that explanation seems a little off, although I should note the article is inaccurate as describing "much" of the film being in Hungarian is a severe overstatement, it's only a few scenes.

And reading it closer, I think he's saying it was only used for those scenes, not their Hungarian accented English scenes which is the vast majority of both performances, so it is far less than the article is alluding to. However, that only reinforces the notion that it definitely doesn't seem like it should've been necessary to take that approach given it only makes up a relatively small portion of the film's dialogue.

Matt Mustin said...

I just thought about the idea of Emma Stone in a David Lynch film and I'm now I'm just pissed that that can never happen.

Matt Mustin said...

Louis: Thoughts on this? https://youtu.be/Uvkqr-S-1Ac?si=y8KsAkspRgAyKhbr

Perfectionist said...

Besides his directorial marvels, David Lynch had the best hair genetics, I have ever seen on a Caucasian male. Just few years ago, he had long locks going on too. Really gorgeous, will miss them a lot too.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on...

Katherine Mallen Kupferer in Ghostlight
Ravi Kishan in Laapataa Ladies
The casts of Problemista and National Anthem

Emi Grant said...

Perfectionist: That hairline did not concede a single inch for nearly 80 years. First ballot Hall of Fame hair in cinema history.

Tim said...

i watched You Were Never Really Here, which sadly basically ignores almost all its side characters to focus on Joaquin Phoenix, but what a focus on the Phoenix it is

Phoenix - 5
Samsonov - 3
Roberts - 4 (only has a couple of short scenes in the beginning, but makes every 24th of a second count, making you genuinely wish to see her again whenever she's off-screen)
the rest - 2.5

Ytrewq Wertyq said...

Perfectionist: Al Pacino is the only one who can go up against Lynch in that respect.

Tim: Saw that as well, since Phoenix was once suggested here for a 2017 review. I gave him a 4 though, since from what I remember the writing was incredibly vague all around and he had to piece together a portrait of his character basically all by himself, which worked for me only to some extent.

Bryan L. said...

Louis: Your thoughts on this scene from The Warriors, and your takeaways from it? It's the one that's stuck the most with me since I first saw the film.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygCV3vQvphI&t=1s

8000S said...

Louis: Curiously, Teddy Roosevelt knew Bram Stoker, who wrote Dracula.

Now I'm imagining a movie where he hunts vampires.

Anonymous said...

Corbet's response to the controversy

“Adrien and Felicity’s performances are completely their own. They worked for months with dialect coach Tanera Marshall to perfect their accents. Innovative Respeecher technology was used in Hungarian language dialogue editing only, specifically to refine certain vowels and letters for accuracy. No English language was changed. This was a manual process, done by our sound team and Respeecher in post-production. The aim was to preserve the authenticity of Adrien and Felicity’s performances in another language, not to replace or alter them and done with the utmost respect for the craft.”

Additional generative AI usage is also utilized to conjure a series of architectural blueprints and finished buildings in the film’s closing sequence, to which Corbet says: “Judy Becker and her team did not use AI to create or render any of the buildings. All images were hand-drawn by artists. To clarify, in the memorial video featured in the background of a shot, our editorial team created pictures intentionally designed to look like poor digital renderings circa 1980.”

“The Brutalist is a film about human complexity, and every aspect of its creation was driven by human effort, creativity, and collaboration. We are incredibly proud of our team and what they’ve accomplished here,” adds Corbet.

Harris Marlowe said...

As I was rather busy for the past few days, I must belatedly pay my respects now to David Lynch, a giant.

Harris Marlowe said...

Louis, how many of Lynch's short films have you seen? I seem to recall you reacting to Premonitions Following an Evil Deed a long while ago when I was lurking here.

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

Saw it a few years ago, and even for short trend video, Lynch still found a way to mix it up, by naturally including coffee, playing Somewhere Over a Rainbow, and nominating Putin. Lynch, just was a true legend in every conceivable way and we will never see his likes again.

Anonymous:

Kupferer - (Hard to settle on a rating because her early scenes are so over the top and just ridiculous. Again playing extreme emotions isn't wrong in itself, but you don't see the internalization of the outburst in her performance. It just feels like being big for the sake of it without the nuance to see what is creating that tension. Having said that, her later quiet scenes she's really quite good in finding that nuance and emotional tenderness in certain moments quite beautifully.)

I think I gave thoughts on Kishan earlier.

Torres - 2(He's just very dull and maybe he's trying to be the straight man by being so dull but it's not something that worked particularly well for me in the I think attempted deadpan...or maybe he's just that bland.)

Swinton - 3.5(She's fun in playing wild and kooky, because it is something she's good at, however in the grand scheme of her wild and kooky performances I found this kind of pretty standard take from her. She's still good, but kind of thought it was coasting from a talented performer.)

Rossellini - 3.5(I mean her voice will enliven most things and this film is no different as she does elevate every word she says with a natural ease.)

Lee - 3.5(Found her side bit to be the most interesting in that I found she managed to ground and give honesty to her character just in such short moment, that could've been one note but she manages to find some honesty even in her very brief screentime.)

Plummer - 3(Again I think he's fine in playing the general emotions I just keep seeing such similar performances from him I do ponder what his actual range is. As there is that very passive quality to his performances where he's in the scene, but he's oddly in the background for playing the lead at the same time.)

Lindley - 3(Found the role a touch too simplistic though I think they do a find job of just kind presenting this outward magnetism that draws in Plummer's Dylan effectively to be sure, but found the role ended up being repetitive.)

Park - 3.5(Again the simplistic nature of the role kind of limited parts of their work as well, though I think Park has this nice sort of casual warm that sells the quiet sage lines pretty well, but there's almost too much of an ideal in the writing that leaves seeming less like people than they should.)

Anonymous:

That does seem to provide clarification, I do think an editing aid, rather than the creation of the sound is a very different situation.

Although I think this in general, not just in this situation, suggests maybe we need to all come together to decide what we refer to when we say "AI" as though the definition is obvious it can mean a whole lot of different things.

Bryan:

Walter Hill at some of his best, aka a moment where he is relying on the language that only exists in cinematic terms. In this case, there is some noise, but the whole sequence isn't about the noise it is about the glances between the warriors in one part of life against the carefree young people. Hill beautifully creating that contrast that is probably the deepest part of the entire film done with almost no dialogue, and it is all about just the separation, two people inhabiting the same space but of two completely different world.

8000's:

I mean would've been a better fit for such a story than Lincoln, particularly with the Stoker connection.

Louis Morgan said...

Harris:

I've seen All that are in the shorts collection, Absurda, Lady Blue Shanghai, Idem Paris and What Did Jack Do.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Apropos of nothing, thoughts on Saverin's outburst in The Social Network?

Harris Marlowe said...

What are your thoughts on the short films in the collection that, as far as I can determine, you haven't commented on before?

BRAZINTERMA said...

Hello Louis and folks
The day has finally arrived, tell us what your final predictions are for the 2025 Oscar nominees:

SONG
"Compress/Repress" - Challengers
"El Mal" - Emilia Perez
"Mi Camino" - Emilia Perez
"The Journey" -The Six Triple Eight
"Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot

SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot

SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part 2
Emilia Perez
Gladiator 2
Wicked

EDITING
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part 2
Emilia Perez

VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Dune Part 2
Gladiator 2
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLIST
A Different Man
Dune Part 2
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

COSTUME DESIGN
Dune Part 2
Gladiator 2
Maria
Nosferatu
Wicked

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part 2
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Perez
Flow
I'm Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave
Dune Part 2
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
A Real Pain
The Substance

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler
Ariana Grande
Felicity Jones
Isabella Rossellini
Zoe Saldaña

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov
Kieran Culkin
Edward Norton
Guy Pearce
Jeremy Strong

LEAD ACTRESS
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Cynthia Erivo
Mikey Madison
Demi Moore
Fernanda Torres

LEAD ACTOR
Adrien Brody
Timothée Chalamet
Daniel Craig
Colman Domingo
Ralph Fiennes

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard
Sean Baker
Brady Corbet
RaMell Ross
Denis Villeneuve

PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
I’m Still Here
A Real Pain
Wicked

PS: I know I'm going to make a mistake by putting I'm Still Here in more categories. But, screw it, because life is too short.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

BRAZINTERMA: I'll just drop my Gold Derby predictions below:

https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/tahmeedchowdhury/oscars-nominations-2025-predictions/

Have a feeling Curtis will make it in, she's an astute campaigner, and I think if a Stan performance gets in, it's A Different Man.

Louis Morgan said...

Tahmeed:

One of the great catharsis moments in any scene just to see Eduardo lash out at Mark with the whole break of the sort of smugness that we saw between Mark and Sean up until that point.But what's great about the scene is you get both the lowest and highest point for each character cleverly in a way. As with Mark you see sort of the soft control he has, though you also see his own genuine shame he's trying to keep back. With Sean you get his particularly blithe smugness towards Eduardo, however also showing himself to be the biggest coward when Eduardo even suggests any physical threat to him. And then you have Eduardo just on the extreme immediate heartbreak mixed in with rage as he tries to argue for himself, before finding the control of the situation when his moment of telling Mark to lawyer up and the fake lunge at Sean followed by absolute perfection with the "I seem so tough" dismissal towards him.

Harris:

SIx Men Getting Sick - (Absolutely silly just though ends up becoming quite funny with just how simple it is in its silliness.)

The Alphabet - (The greatest Lynch short of all as it is just beautiful in its simplicity, in creating basically Sesame Street from Hell as he teaches you the Alphabet in a terrifying of a manner as possible and honestly quite the striking, as in frieghtening performance from Lynch's first wife as our demonic guide to the whole thing.)

The Grandmother - (Kind of an alternate take idea of Eraserhead what is what if it was in color and he made everything black and white which quite striking, as is the whole terrifying world of nonsense speakers as the abusive parents, with a connection only made out of a horrible (in the best way) birthing scene leading to the titular character. That moment alone makes the short worth watching for that bit at the very least.)

The Amputee - (Honestly one that seems like it was written over a few hours because it was. Not much to it other than the titular idea, which is something but there's nothing remarkable about this one)

The Cowboy and The Frenchman - (I wouldn't say it quite sustains itself though there are some funny bits such as Stanton overreacting to everything, and the magical suitcase. And I'll always take Stanton playing a cowboy, but I wouldn't say overall it entirely works, though is still slightly amusing.)

Louis Morgan said...

Final Predictions:

Picture:

Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Wicked
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
A Real Pain
September 5

I'll admit I had to throw my hands up on this and just go with the PGA ten, as neither the Nickel Boys or Sing Sing scream last minute nominees, meanwhile the European flavor is already covered by Perez and The Substance leaving me with a big question mark still. So probably incorrectly saying September 5th will pull a minor last minute uptick.

Director:

Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Sean Baker - Anora
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
Edward Berger - Conclave

Actress:

Demi Moore - The Substance
Mikey Madison - Anora
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

Actor:

Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Colman Domingo - Sing SIng
Daniel Craig - Queer

Craig missing BAFTA is big, but Stan still has that splitting problem. Honestly maybe I should just go with Hugh Grant but then again the Globes and BAFTA have always loved him.

Supporting Actress:

Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl

Going with the nearly worst possible scenario for me (except the Jones and Grande inclusions) in hopes I'm wrong.

Supporting Actor:

Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Yura Borisov - Anora
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Feel it is razor thin between Maclin and Strong, though I would say anyone but Culkin and Norton could miss.

Adapted Screenplay:

Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys

Original Screenplay

The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5

Really just going with 5 to justify it in best picture.

Cinematography:

The Brutalist
Dune Part II
Nosferatu
Conclave
The Girl With the Needle

Costume Design:

Wicked
Nosferatu
Conclave
Dune Part Two
A Complete Unknown

Editing:

Anora
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
September 5

Makeup:

The Substance
Dune Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Emilia Perez

Production Design

The Brutalist
Dune Part Two
Wicked
Nosferatu
Conclave

Score:

Conclave
The Brutalist
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez
Challengers

Song:

"El Mal" - Emilia Perez
"Mi Camino" - Emilia Perez
"The Journey" - Six Triple Eight
"Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot
"Like a Bird" - Sing Sing

Sound

Dune Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II

VFX:

Dune Part Tw
Twisters
Mufasa
Wicked
Kingdom of the Planet of The Apes

Animated Film:

The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Flow
Wallace Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Documentary:

No Other Land
Daughters
Sugarcane
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Black Box Diaries

International Film:

Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
I'm Still Here
The Girl with The Needle
Kneecap

Harris Marlowe said...

Are you still predicting Brutalist to win BP?

Louis Morgan said...

Harris:

Have no strong opinion at the moment, as I think it could go several ways.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of The Place Without Limits.

RatedRStar said...

I think that Stan will get in over Craig, I think the extra voting time might swing it, I would rather Craig be nominated, I'm playing that age card where I was happy when Jonathan Pryce got in over Taron Egerton, I think Stan and Edgerton are more likely to get nominated in future than Pryce and Craig so thats my only reason.

RatedRStar said...

Ahhh I keep going back and forth between Craig and Stan.

RatedRStar said...

For Craig:
SAG, CC, GG nominations
Overdue
SAG goes 5 for 5 quite often with Best Actor recently

Against Craig:
Missed Bafta
People don't like Queer
Voting time extended probably doesn't help.
Would be sole nominee, the most common type of acting snub.

For Stan:
Has GG and Bafta noms
Apprentice seems to be liked internationally
Has campaigned hard.

Against Stan:
American voters seem less likely to vote compared to international bodies when it comes to playing Trump.
Missed SAG and CC
Has only got in when he hasn't competed against A Different Man therefore could split votes.

Anonymous said...

The list of Razzie nominees has been released. Unfortunately, Megalopolis was nominated, which I think is a bit of an exaggeration.
A curious detail is that in the main categories, there is at least one nominee who was an Oscar winner. Coppola, Phoenix, Gaga, Blanchett, Voight and DeBose.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your thoughts on the premise of Robert Eggers next film.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Cobo - 4(His performance obviously is on more than a bit of a limb in terms of playing the flamboyance of the character, and for the most part I found him convincing without it turning into just a caricature. There is real emotion within his performance that while the overarching quality is that flamboyance he does create the sense of a strong emotional need beneath all his behaviors that never simplifies him as just how others see the character. I will say though I do wish the film hadn't taken so long to really hone in on his story and took so much time setting up the random people of the town, because there was definitely much potential here. Still even as I feel slightly limited by the screentime I regardless found he gave a compelling performance consistently in leading towards the tragedy of the role.)

Villa & Martin - 3.5(A liked both of their performance in that they each have enough of a presence and vivaciousness however there was something in the writing that kept me kind of an arms length for each. Though still found they brought a certain kind of measured charm mixed in with the sense of their less than auspicious life weighing on them in each moment.)

Found everyone else fine though no one really stood out to me.

Luke:

I mean I'll take all the Universal Monsters via Eggers. Particularly if we're getting a new century for him to visualize each time.

J96 said...

Louis, your top 10 most deserved Razzie Worst Picture Winners?

And then your top 10 least deserved Razzie winners in overall in any category?

Louis Morgan said...

J96:

In terms of most deserved I really haven't seen enough Worst Picture winners for the ranking to mean much (and I don't intend to change that fact.)

Least Deserved:

1. Sylvester Stallone - Rocky IV (Worst Director)
2. Faye Dunaway - Mommie Dearest (Worst Actress)
3. Jared Leto - House of Gucci (Worst Supporting Actor)
4. Tom Cruise & Brad Pitt - Interview With the Vampire (Worst Screen Couple)
5. Ricky IV (Worst Score)
6. Michael Cimino - Heaven's Gate (Worst Director)
7. Kelsey Grammer - The Expendables 3 (Worst Supporting Actor)
8. Rambo: First Blood Part II (Worst Picture)
9. Sylvester Stallone - Rambo: First Blood Part II & Rocky IV (Worst Actor)
10. Rambo: First Blood Part II (Worst Screenplay)

Tony Kim said...

So it's become kind of a headache to predict a lot of the major categories at this point - am I right to think that's why more people haven't been posting predictions?

I'll admit I've been second-guessing myself in enough of the categories to not feel fully comfortable posting my own. But if I had to get one NGNG prediction out there on the off chance it actually happens... I'll say Eisenberg might be the 5th spot in Actor. But now that I've said it, it probably won't happen.

RatedRStar said...

Its nearly time... theres gonna be some huge surprises I think.

Tim said...

i have a feeling this is gonna be a wild half hour

Emi Grant said...

Jeremy Strong got in, Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice might be happening

Michael McCarthy said...

Pretty proud of myself for calling Monica Barbaro and thrilled it was likely in place of Curtis.