Saturday, 8 December 2018

Alternate Best Supporting Actor 1987

And the Nominees Were Not:

Bill Paxton in Near Dark

Will Patton in No Way Out

Robert Downey Jr. in Less Than Zero 

Kurtwood Smith in Robocop


Roy Cheung in Prison on Fire

119 comments:

Bryan L. said...

Pretty interesting lineup, and I'm always intrigued by a RDJ review.

Louis: Do you think Melissa McCarthy has a chance at getting an Oscar nom? They usually love it when comedic actors tackle dramatic roles, and Grant seems to be getting support as well. I think it's also worth mentioning that she got in for Bridesmaids.

Mitchell Murray said...

Ok.. I've only seen Smith but this looks like an intriguing line up.

I'm guessing..
5) Smith
4) Patton
3) Paxton
2) Downey Jr.
1) Cheung

Also to answer Bryan's question, I'd say she has a decent chance at the very least. Considering her previous nomination, which still stands as one of the oscar's most bizarre - though oddly inspired - nominees for supporting actress, McCarthy probably would have some backing from the outset even without considering the meaty nature of her role.

Charles H said...

McCarthy needs more support i think. Grant getting support makes me more than happy.

Calvin Law said...

1. Patton
2. Smith
3. Downey Jr.
4. Cheung
5. Paxton

Matt Mustin said...

Louis: Did you love the screenplay and score for Can You Ever Forgive Me? as much as I did? It's pretty easily my adapted screenplay win right now.

Bryan L: I think she's got a better than good chance of getting in.

Techno said...

1. Smith
2. Downey Jr.
3. Cheung
4. Patton
5. Paxton

Bryan L. said...

I'm kind of a sucker for comedic actors getting nominated for dramatic turns, and it's been awhile since we've had such a turn get an Oscar nomination.

I'm also glad she got away from her husbands films for a bit, since they weren't doing her any favors. Hope the love for Grant also spills over to McCarthy.

RatedRStar said...

3 Villains and 2 curiositys =D.

RatedRStar said...

I have often said and I may be alone in deciding that Roy Cheung is one of Hong Kongs greatest character actors who always adds something every time, even in films like Infernal Affairs II where he managed to make lighting a cigarette badass. It is great that one of his only 2 HK award nominated performances will get reviewed.

1. Robert Downey.Jr
2. Will Patton
3. Kurtwood Smith
4. Bill Paxton
5. Roy Cheung

Razor said...

1. Smith
2. Downey Jr.
3. Patton
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Charles H said...

These predictions are really all over the place.

1. Downey Jr.
2. Smith
3. Patton
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Louis Morgan said...

Bryan:

Yes, actress is mad though right now with over 10 performances one could argue are in contention for the top five. Grant I'd say is locked in, given how thin his category is, in academy terms, it would be hard not to see him make it. That helps her. Plus there could be a push again to get a female director nominee in the top five, that would help the film as it has the best shot out of any film. Worth mentioning that Marielle Hellar would be extremely deserving of that nomination.

Matt:

YES! As mentioned above I also loved Hellar's direction, I mean just imagine that material directed (and potentially re-written) by say a Jason Reitman or Alexander Payne. The fact that she was able to make a story about two extreme misanthropes feel neither misanthropic nor indifferent is quite the accomplishment.

Luke Higham said...

1. Patton
2. Smith
3. Downey Jr.
4. Cheung
5. Paxton

Louis: Rating and thoughts on Donal McCann in The Dead.

Maciej said...

1.Downey, Jr.
2.Smith
3.Cheung
4.Patton
5.Paxton

John Smith said...


1. Downey Jr.
2. Smith
3. Patton
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Luke Higham said...

Rating Predictions
Patton - 5
Smith - 4.5/5
Downey Jr. - 4.5/5
Cheung - 4
Paxton - 4

Might switch 2 and 3 around depending on the first review.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on The Little Drummer Girl as a series and the cast

RatedRStar said...

Happy Birthday to the legendary Kirk Douglas, 102 =D incredible.

Calvin Law said...

Finally saw The Old Man & The Gun. I liked though didn’t love it, few nitpicks about the direction and the overall tone but some fantastic sequences.

Robert MacFarlane said...

1. Patton
2. Smith
3. Downey
4. Cheung
5. Paxton

Anonymous said...

1. Patton
2. Smith
3. Downey
4. Cheung
5. Paxton


Louis: Your thoughts on the production design of Woman in the Moon and The Blue Angel.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

I have literally no idea how this is going to end up.

1. Patton
2. Downey
3. Smith
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Emi Grant said...

1. Patton
2. Downey Jr.
3. Smith
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Bryan L. said...

1. Patton
2. Downey Jr.
3. Cheung
4. Smith
5. Paxton

Calvin Law said...

LAFCA winners -

Best Film: “Roma” (Runner up: “Burning”), so glad they loved Burning.

Best Director: Debra Granick, “Leave No Trace” (Runner-up: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma), so happy for Granick.

Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed” (Runner-up: Ben Foster, “Leave No Trace”), so happy for Hawke.

Best Actress: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” (Runner-up: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”)

Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, “Burning” (Runner-up: Hugh Grant, “Paddington 2”), wtf this is amazing.

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” (Runner-up: Elizabeth Debicki, “Widows”)

Best Screenplay: Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Runner-up: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”)

Matt Mustin said...

Calvin: A+ for that Granick win.

Matt Mustin said...

Also, it looks like Regina King is gonna sweep.

Charles H said...

Some awesome winners. The Burning love is great. Also great to see Grant and Hawke getting recognition.

Calvin Law said...

Glad to see Hawke is pretty much the Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic of this year (though I could easily see Schrader getting in, too).

Bryan L. said...

Louis: Do you think the following actors would be a great fit for these Steve McQueen leads, in 2010s versions of the films? And if not them, who would be your choice(s)?

Jake Holman- Chris Evans
Thomas Crown- Michael Fassbender
Boon- Channing Tatum (Could be a good showcase for him I think)
Henri Charriere- Ethan Hawke
Lt Bullitt- Ryan Gosling (Although it'd be pretty obvious)

Luke Higham said...

Calvin: As I expected too. I do think he's winning NSFC as well as it's a performance that they would seem to be more inclined to go with. If not then Dafoe.

Louis: Thoughts on the Critics Choice nominations.

Lead Actor is as everyone expected. Jordan over Rockwell is interesting though Chalamet maybe a concern.

Luke Higham said...

Also, I didn't mention this before but Hawke's Globes snub didn't surprise me. HFPA wouldn't typically embrace that kind of film.

Lezlie said...

1. Will Patton
2. Robert Downey Jr.
3. Kurtwood Smith
4. Bill Paxton
5. Roy Cheung

Bryan L. said...

Louis: Oh and...

Nevada Smith- Ben Foster
Eric Stoner- Oscar Isaac

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Do you have any intention on seeing Bumblebee.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Quality wise:

I'm glad First Man made it into Picture/Director. Disappointed by lack of Can You Ever Forgive Me in Picture or director, especially when Farrelly once again made it.

The 100% snub of The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is actually kind of aggravating. The fact that it could not get into even cinematography is downright baffling.

Prediction wise:

Gosling needed that as did Hawke and Collette.

Somewhat notable that Coogler missed out in Director despite the film doing so well otherwise, so I'm not positive the passion will quite carry it to that 5% needed by the Academy.

Chalamet feels like an Oprah in The Butler or Hong Chau in Downsizing. In that the film's weakness probably will thwart his nomination in the end.

Not surprised by Jordan's inclusion here, Stewart got in last year. I doubt it will translate any further.

Major miss for Widows on every front, where one would have imagined it should have found its support. Kaluuya I think still had a chance via BAFTA. It is strange the film got into ensemble yet not a single cast member was nominated with seven slots available.

McCann - 4(A similar turn to Huston's in that he finds a real power within the reaction towards the memories. This being a difficult idea to achieve yet performed so well in this instance. McCann does not simply look in a given scene, as you truly gain a sense of the haunting quality of the story as he is forced to think of the past and how it continues to affect his wife in particular. Quiet, yet powerfully assured work to be sure.)

I'll probably see it sooner than later given the reviews.

Anonymous:

Let me work on that.

Anonymous:

A notable grand achievement once again realized by Lang. The work I find particularly interesting for Woman in The Moon as it even though it is obviously inaccurate to ships, and the moon of reality, it does not feel at all goofy. This in this combination of an attempt at being convincing with this sort of art deco stylistic slant that makes the film particularly memorable looking in its grandiose sci-fi achievement.

Blue Angel's work is remarkable bit of work for its period in particular as it manages to be both of sort of the contemporary period, yet shows how it done in a way that is not as flat as many films of the period. This is in the detail granted the set direction whether it be in the bigger musical hall, or just a dressing room there's a real lived in detail that makes the film stand out against other films that typically just had "rooms".

Bryan:

Evans as Holman, great choice, not completely unlike his work in Sunshine I'd say.

Thomas Crown, no I don't quite see it with Fassbender, maybe Dan Stevens.

Tatum would certainly work for Boon.

Charriere, no only because I think you need someone with a more overt masculinity for the character, to make his eventual vulnerabilities all the more potent. So I'd say Matthias Schoenaerts.

Gosling naturally works for Bullitt.

Isaac could work for Stoner, though opt for Chris Pine there.

Anonymous said...

Louis: your top 10 stacy keach acting moments

Bryan L. said...

Louis: I actually did think of Pine for Stoner, but I already chose him for The Cooler King, and I always like to pick a different actor for these sorts of questions haha.

Would you concur on Foster for Nevada Smith?

And lastly, would you consider watching Junior Bonner for McQueen and Peckinpah when 1972 comes up?

Calvin Law said...

I’ll add onto those casts:

The Sand Pebbles 2010s directed by James Gray
Holman: Chris Evans
Frenchy: Paddy Considine
Collins: Kyle Chandler
Po-han: Jimmy O. Yang

Papillon 2010s directed by Michaël R. Roskam
Charrière: Matthias Schonaerts
Dega: Robert Pattinson

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: I like that Sand Pebbles cast. Who do you think would be great for Shirley? Dakota Fanning? Or Saoirse Ronan?

BTW, Louis mentioning Sunshine made me want to revisit his review for Cillian Murpy for the same film and I have now realized that you were previously "GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar" on here XD.

I second that previous username btw.

Calvin Law said...

Bryan: Fanning’s a good choice. And yeah, I stand by that through thick and thin though I doubt it’ll ever happen.

Emi Grant said...

San Diego Film Critics Society Awards:

Best Picture: Leave No Trace (Runner Up: Green Book)

Best Director: Debra Granik (Runner Up: Peter Farelly)

Best Original Screenplay: Eighth Grade (Runner Up: Green Book)

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Death of Stalin (Runner Up: Boy Erased)

Best Actor: Ethan Hawke - First Reformed (Runner Up: Viggo Mostensen - Green Book)

Best Actress: Glenn Close - The Wife (Runner Up: Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor: Tie between Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy and Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased (Runner Up: Nina Arianda - Stan and Ollie)

Among other wins, Isle of Dogs takes Best Animated Feature, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs ties for Best Cinematography with The Rider, Shoplifters wins Best Foreign Language film and John C. Reilly got Best Body of Work (I thought Brolin had it on the back, glad to be wrong)

Charles H said...

Great to see more love for Hawke. Chalamet gaining traction is not a good thing for me.

Mitchell Murray said...

Charles: Yah full disclosure, as someone who liked his Call Me by Your Name performance, I'm not sure why Chalamet has been put on this pedestal as the next big thing. In fact, while I haven't been the biggest supporter of him per say, Lucas Hedges makes a better case for me as the defining actor of his age group: At the very least, he seems to be the more consistent performer.

Bryan L. said...

Mitchell: Same here. It feels like he's being built up to be the next James Dean. I really don't see the hype for him. He's lining up roles with proven directors as well, so we'll see if he delivers in them and fulfills the hype, or he doesn't.

Bryan L. said...

Although I don't want to sound too negative, since he was good in CMBYN after all.

RatedRStar said...

I think one major reason why people are saying Chalamet is sort of the next big thing and not Hedges is simply because, Chalamet has that James Dean star power about him like others have said , whereas Hedges sort of has a Domhnall Gleeson look to him where he is clearly a good actor but not a heartthrob box office superstar type.

Charles H said...

Mitchell: He's proven himself to be a fine actor but i feel he has his limitations and he's being built up too much. Of course i don't doubt he will be a top star in Hollywood, if he deserves it or not is the question.

Matt Mustin said...

I think the hype about Chalamet is gonna end up doing him much more harm than good in the long run, to be honest.

(Also, while we're at it, let's calm down about Idris Elba, too.)

RatedRStar said...

Idris Elba is a strange one, because he is old enough to be my dad so its not because he is up an coming, I feel his popularity is very Paul Hoganish in that I feel it is his look and personality, a middle aged man hitting the big time with cool charisma.

RatedRStar said...

He is pretty excellent in Luther as well, that show would be garbage if he wasn't there to carry it.

Matt Mustin said...

RatedRStar: Yeah, admittedly I haven't seen Luther. The best performance I've seen from him was Beasts of No Nation, and even then I didn't find him to be anywhere near as good as most people did.

Álex Marqués said...

He's great in The Wire as well.

Anonymous said...

The Mummy (based on the 1999 film, 50's version by J. Lee Thompson)

Rick O'Connell: Charlton Heston
Evelyn Carnahan: Jean Simmons
Jonathan Carnahan: Richard Attenborough
Imhotep: Yul Brynner
Beni Gabor: Eli Wallach

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your 1980s/2010s casts for The Mask Of Zorro. I'm sure Mandy Patinkin's your choice for Alejandro in the former.

And is there anyone you would've preferred to play Archibald Cunningham in Rob Roy instead of Tim Roth and your 00/10s casts for it as well.

Anonymous said...

Louis, could you watch War and Peace (2016) with Paul Dano before the Oscar reviews. I thought he was truly exceptional in it as well as Jessie Buckley who was Series MVP from Taboo.

It might not the very best adaptation of Tolstoy's novels compared to the 1972 BBC version with Anthony Hopkins or Bondarchuk's 1966/67 four part series but the performances are too great to ignore.

Anonymous said...

*It might not be the very best adaptation

Anonymous said...

*Tolstoy's novel

Luke Higham said...

Anonymous: If this lineup ends by New Year's Eve, we should hopefully get a 3 week interval between then and the Oscar nominations where Louis will watch our recommendations.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I honestly felt sorry for Chalamet in Beautiful Boy. I haven’t seen actors that lost since Girl on the Train. I’m not sure he or Carell were given any solid directions. He was a deer in the headlights for most of his performance. As for his hype, I’m thinking he’s in his “90’s DiCaprio” phase. Which is to say: get used to the cult of personality, it’s not going away. Funnily enough, I joked to a friend that we should get the twink version of The Departed starring Chalamet as Costigan and Hedges as Sullivan.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

My recommendation for Louis will be Wolf Children. It's easily my Best Picture win for 2012, and it should make his top 3 for the year at least.

Michael McCarthy said...

Robert: So would that include Neil Patrick Harris as Frank Costello?

Bryan L. said...

Luke: He gave a 10s cast for Rob Roy in Ian Holms' review for Dreamchild.

That 90s DiCaprio comparison is apt for Chalamet I think, in terms of hype. I hope Villenueve and Michod see something in Chalamet that we don't, since they've cast him as the lead in their upcoming films.

Anonymous said...

Luke, I shall let him know then. :)

Luke Higham said...

Tahmeed: I'm really hoping Louis will have enough time to watch all of my animated recommendations.

Calvin Law said...

Finally saw Blindspotting. Really liked it, and Diggs would be an excellent choice to review.

RatedRStar said...

Since the SAG nominations are tomorrow, I will just put my quick predictions down below:

Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favorite
Viola Davis - Widows
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me

Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Eliott - A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favorite
Rachel Weisz - The Favorite

Emi Grant said...

I think it's either Gosling or Hawke tomorrow, wouldn't mind see either make it, but if they both do, it means we're getting a snub.

Also, really hoping both Maniac and Widows get some love. Since it seems everyone is giving them the finger and it breaks my heart.

Luke Higham said...

RatedRStar: Can't wait for that announcement, just hope Hawke makes it in. I loved Gosling in First Man but I'd rather see Hawke get his first Lead nomination.

And Davis is a SAG favourite so I could see it happening though it won't translate into an oscar nom.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Could you add Ian Bannen in Braveheart to the 95 Supporting overall.

Calvin Law said...

Regarding Hedges and Chalamet: I like them both, but Hedges has easily had the highest height for me with Manchester by the Sea so far. I'm eagerly awaiting Boy Erased.

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: Manchester by the Sea grew on me a little bit on re-watch, and I actually liked Hedges a bit more than Chalamet in Lady Bird.

I also wonder how he fared in Mid 90s, since all the praise for that film is for Jonah Hills' directorial effort, and less for the performances.

Michael McCarthy said...

Hedges has moved up to my top 5 for Best Actor since I saw Boy Erased. My second favorite turn from him would actually be The Zero Theorem though, I rewatched it recently and he actually gave my favorite performance in that film.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Apparently a script that's about the making of Jaws is in development for a movie. Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Louis: when all said and done, do you think Three Billboards could go down as possibly the greatest ensemble performance film in history?

Plus, how are you feeling about the overall state of this awards season?

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

1. Ending - Fat City
2. After the fight - Fat City
3. Meeting Oma Lee - Fat City
4. Earl - Fat City
5. The Albino - The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean
6. Trying to settle - Fat City
7. Asking for his money - Nebraska
8. Leaving town - The Heart is a Lonely Hunter
9. Barrabas and Jesus - Jesus of Nazareth
10. Talking to Derek again - American History X

Bryan:

Yes, and yes.

Luke:

80's:

Alejandro: Mandy Patinkin
Don Diego: Richard Harris
Elena: Maria Conchita Alonso
Don Montero: Donald Sutherland
Captain Love: James Spader

10's:

Alejandro: Pedro Pascal
Don Diego: Jimmy Smits
Elena: Eiza Gonzalez
Don Montero: Edward James Olmos
Captain Love: Sebastian Stan

I'd actually say Robert Downey Jr. would've been a great Archibald.

00's:

Rob Roy: Clive Owen
Mary: Embeth Davidtz
James Graham: Bill Nighy
John Campbell: Anthony Hopkins
Killearn: Peter Mullan
Archibald Cunningham: Jude Law

Calvin Law said...

Anonymous: that sounds like a potentially interesting idea. I'd suggest this as a cast:

Steven Spielberg: Paul Dano
Roy Scheider: Alessandro Nivola
Robert Shaw: Joaquin Phoenix
Richard Dreyfuss: Shia LaBeouf

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Um, that wouldn't be my first choice for a troubled production film, the stories for Apocalypse Now and The Island of Dr. Moreau, I think are more potent. It could work though, so I'm intrigued at least.

Anonymous:

No, as I always feel in part a great ensemble is made by its weakest and smallest players. For example my win last year in Death of Stalin, came as much from those guys minding Stalin's door as it did for Beale, Isaacs and Buscemi. I loved the central performances in Billboards, but I don't think there was anything notable about the bit players, aside from Ivanek. Also it had Abbie Cornish's completely out of place performance.

Um not over excited at the moment, as I haven't loved any of the major players I've seen. I've loved films, but they seem like secondary players, if that, at the moment. Hopefully I'll love all that is left, or First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me, and especially Scruggs will start making more of an impact.

Matt Mustin said...

Louis: What are your thoughts on "Please Mr. Kennedy" from Inside Llewyn Davis?

Calvin Law said...

Louis: don't know if this has been said before but Joaquin Phoenix as Coppola?

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

Not a film original I'm afraid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isL94TjfZos,

I will say though that the rendition of it is absolutely wonderful, and quite hilarious thanks to Adam Driver's contribution in particular.

Calvin:

I think Oscar Isaac was suggested previously, however I think Phoenix would make the most sense for the portrayal for a portrait of truly unrestrained ambition.

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: Those actors would be a good fit, especially Dano as Spielberg, although I can't buy Phoenix as Shaw. Perhaps Angus McFayden or David O'Hara for Shaw.

Louis: Speaking of ensembles, did Drive just barely miss out on making it into your Top Ten for the 2010s? I imagine it was a difficult list to make though.

Anonymous said...

Louis what would be your cast for both films?

Louis Morgan said...

Bryan:

Perhaps Richard Dormer for Shaw.

Well again, super nit picky due to "best of the best", the guy Brooks stabs in the eye is a little goofy, even though I liked to loved everyone else.

Anonymous:

Filmmaker's Apocalypse:

Francis Ford Coppola: Joaquin Phoenix
Eleanor Coppola: Linda Cardellini
George Lucas: Joel Edgerton
John Milius: Nick Offerman
Martin Sheen: Chris Pine
Marlon Brando: Brian Cox (alt Daniel Day-Lewis)
Harvey Keitel: Milo Ventimiglia
Dennis Hopper: Ben Foster
Vittorio Storaro: Romain Duris

Island of Madness:

Richard Stanley: Sharlto Copley
Val Kilmer: Chris Evans
Marlon Brando: Brian Cox
David Thewlis: Dan Stevens
John Frankenheimer: Campbell Scott
Fairuza Balk: Imogene Poots
Rob Morrow: Finn Wittrock

Calvin Law said...

Louis: would you consider Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz to have perfect ensembles?

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

Yes, not a weak spot in either film. Especially Hot Fuzz though, but that's to be expected when you have the likes of Billie Whitelaw, Edward Woodward, Paddy Considine, Rory McCann and Olivia Colman in the side roles.

Matt Cofrancesco said...

1. Patton
2. Downey Jr.
3. Smith
4. Paxton
5. Cheung

Michael McCarthy said...

1. Robert Downey, Jr.
2. Will Patton
3. Kurtwood Smith
4. Bill Paxton
5. Roy Cheung

Bryan L. said...

Louis: Lastly, can I have your 2010s cast and director for Sullivan's Travels? I like the thought of Dicaprio in the lead role.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Your rating and thoughts on Ian Bannen in Braveheart, he isn't in the overall and I can't locate your thoughts.

Calvin Law said...

Saw Aquaman. Actually not bad, I enjoyed myself, it’s stupid but aware of that.

Momoa: 3
Heard: 3
Dafoe: 3
Wilson: 2
Lundgren: 2.5
Abdul-Mateen II: 3
Kidman: 3
Morrison: 3

RatedRStar said...

Best Supporting Actress just got a whole lot more interesting judging from SAG.

Luke Higham said...

So disappointed with Hawke's snub. I guess we're gonna have to wait until BAFTA for further confirmation of the Lead Actor lineup.

Louis: Thoughts on the SAG nominations.

Calvin Law said...

Also, SAG so far:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Crazy Rich Asians”

Calvin Law said...

Widows is definitely out of the game. Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen seem close to locks - would have rather Hawke gotten in over Washington, but don’t mind the latter getting some traction. Pretty much as expected otherwise.

Ensemble for Bohemian Rhapsody is ridiculous though.

Calvin Law said...

Beale Street was completely snubbed. That’s interesting.

Luke Higham said...

Calvin: I think Malek is gonna win BAFTA. Alternate choice would be Cooper.

Calvin Law said...

Like: Wouldn’t mind either to be honest. I like most of the choices from this year, just a bit disappointing that some of my favourites aren’t getting in, even stuff like First Man.

Luke Higham said...

Michael McCarthy: Your ratings and thoughts on Cheung, Paxton, Smith, Patton and Downey Jr.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your reason for taking Lethal Weapon out of your top ten.

Emi Grant said...

Well...Emma Stone got in for Maniac, so it's not a complete loss for me.

Surprised about Best Actor and Supporting Actress...maybe Blunt could pull off a Cate Blanchett in 2007?

Supporting Actor seems kind of locked by this point. I'll actually now go with SAG nominees for my Oscar predictions.

I'll agree with Calvin though, Bohemian Rhapsody for ensemble is probably their worst decision this year.

Bryan L. said...

Bohemian Rhapsody for ensemble? Eehhhhhhhhh...

No Hawke or Gosling :(

End of the road for Widows it seems, since Davis and Kaluuya were the last chances

I wonder if Carrell or Rockwell are still in play for Supporting though

RatedRStar said...

My take on SAG

Best Actor:
Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen really do look like locks unless something shocking happens so it is a battle for that 5th position, Washington probably has the best chance due to SAG and the Globes and that his film is over performing, but also but by being Denzels son as well helps but he is certainly not a guarantee. Hawke is in Jake Gyllenhaals position for Stronger now where he has to get lucky, Gosling is also on life support now.

Best Actress:
This I reckon will be the nominated 5, 4 of them seem save since they are all performing well, Blunt might seem like she could miss but I think with her being overdue and her film clearly having buzz despite having hardly any reviews, I dont see who takes her place since she is also a big star as well.

Best Supporting Actor:
Its starting to look like around 6 people are in the running (Jordan may make it 7), it seems that 5th spot will go to either Rockwell or Chalamet, Rockwell surprisingly missed SAG despite Vice doing well otherwise, however I see Vice gaining more momentum whereas I feel Chalamet despite having buzz about him is very much the sole carry for his film so the films buzz could die at any moment, I think Rockwell gets in over Chalamet at this moment.

Best Supporting Actress:
A nice twist with Regina missing has made this category interesting again, however I think she still gets nominated, Emily Blunt likely doesn't carry over 2 nominations since one is overperforming and the other isn't, Foy missing puts her in big trouble since her film is disappearing fast, Robbie has definitely entered the nomination race but its still not clear yet,the two Favorite ladys seem safe now unless one gets a split vote problem (Weisz will likely miss if that happens), Adams seems safe as well.

RatedRStar said...

The reason I say Weisz misses if there is a split problem is because I reckon the voting currently is quite close between the ladies hence Regina missing, so if one actress gets tons of support it could hurt one of Stone and Weisz, this didnt happen last year in Supporting Actor but that category was mostly the same all the way through.

Bryan L. said...

RatedRStar: It's also interesting to note that Robbie got in for Supporting and Saoirse Ronan didn't in Lead for the same film.

Mitchell Murray said...

Well, I thought i'd give my two cents on the SAG nominees;

Actor -

Major miss for Hawke and Gosling, which I'm disheartened by because, without giving too much away, they both offer notable work. Bale and Malek seem like our pro typical "biopic" nominees and will probably hold out in the long run, while Mortensen has been an industry favourite for a while, so his placement was to be expected. That leaves Cooper in the front runner spot, and Washington who may just be the Kaluuya of this year.

Actress -

Appears like a solid field at the moment, and I wouldn't be that surprised if the academy eventually recognizes these five. Blunt and Close both have the overdue factor going for them, Colman and McCarthy have received strong critical praise, and Gaga has popularity of her film/media persona. I would've been thrilled to see Collette make a stand, but I'm happy enough with this crowd for the time being.

Supporting Actor -

There are about 8 men vying for this category, yet these actors "seem" to be the reasonable bets right now. I've viewed Driver and Elliot, but from what has been said about the other three, I can't imagine Chalamet's review going over so well (or Ali for that matter, given the status of his film, though I would think he's still decent enough considering his oscar winning performance.)

Supporting Actress -

Interesting twist here as King and Foy have been swapped for Blunt and Robbie, supposedly. Let's remember though, that the SAG left out Spencer and Manville last year, so supporting actress might be the field with the most lee way. As a long time fan of Blunt, I'm rather pleased with her acclaim thus far, so a double nomination, however unlikely, wouldn't be too indigestible for me personally.

I'll reserve my full predictions until the Bafta nominations are announced.

Louis Morgan said...

Alright SAG thoughts:

Ensemble:

Prediction Wise:

Maybe it is starting to mean less (Shape of Water did not need it), but it is still a major miss for:

The Favourite (which seems strange since it apparently has three of the best performances of the year according to SAG)
Vice (Maybe Bale and Adams got in sight unseen?)
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me
Green Book
First Man
Roma (though I expected as much given the unknown cast)
and especially Widows (given the size and notoriety of the cast seemed a good bet here)

Usually one or two miss out recently to best picture noms:

So I'd say the locks from this are

A Star is Born
Blackkklansman (confirmed to be a thing I'd say, though may suffer BAFTA a bit)

Followed by:

Bohemian Rhapsody (as much as I'd like to forget Ray was a Picture/Director nominated film)

Then the potential misses in:

Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians

Both which had no individual nominations, which always seems a little odd.

Any who Black Panther is around, but fringe still, it did not over perform with a Jordan nom. Crazy Rich Asians is kind of a definition of a SAG only ensemble player.

Quality Wise:

Yikes. Alright alright. I'll admit First Man I did not expect to be an ensemble player, same with Can You Ever Forgive Me, since both are really two handers. Lack of Scruggs is disheartening, since they've accepted Netflix previously. The choices though were extremely populist even for SAG.

Even disregarding the two individual nominations, Blackkklansman is a fine choice for an ensemble nod. Black Panther also does have a good cast, so I won't complain there in terms of quality. Bohemian Rhapsody though was really a one hander, with two kind of terrible performances in there. That nomination is ridiculous.

Actor:

Prediction Wise:

This could be the Oscar five. Given BAFTA's distaste for his old man, that could carry over for Washington the younger, leaving an open spot there. I think the other four will repeat at BAFTA. Stranger things have happened but Bale, Cooper, Mortensen and now Malek seem very safe.

Who the potential replacement will be (and that could be only for BAFTA), is hard to say, maybe Hawke if that groundswell of support is enough. SAG though doesn't have techs either, so I do think Gosling has an outside chance, but outside the stadium at this point.

Actress:

Quality Wise:

Gaga is a fine choice, McCarthy is a great choice, Close isn't bad in The Wife (yeah I've seen it, Christian Slater MVP) but she is taking up a spot for better performances. Looking forward to seeing Colman. Blunt looks like she'll finally be an Oscar nominee, as she's sure to get in at BAFTA too. She did the same for bad drunk acting the movie though, but given the better reactions for this film it is probably finally her time.

Predictions wise:

Could be the Oscar five, a truly unexpected player would be needed. Davis I'd say is out, probably Kidman too (they nominated her for The Paperboy after all).

Supporting Actor:

Predictions wise:

Chalamet has set himself up nicely to be the Hong Chau this year. The other four seem pretty safe with perhaps Rockwell taking the last spot. Kaluuya I still think has a chance, an outside chance, since he could find home ground support in BAFTA.

Supporting Actress:

Quality Wise:

Blunt is a fine choice (and not terrible fraud), look forward to seeing the rest.

Prediction Wise:

Well this race just a got a whole lot more interesting. Though maybe it just means Amy Adams is going to finally win.

I think this could easily be the BAFTA lineup as well, though Foy definitely has a chance, so that just leaves Oscars to go for King or maybe Foy. I think probably at the expense of Blunt, since voters could defer towards Poppins for her. That was a major miss for both of them. Then again maybe the industry just are saying "We've covered Chazelle and Jenkins already" as both films got zip today.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Thoughts on The Wife and ratings /thoughts on the cast.

Charles H said...

Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen are locks at this point. The fifth spot is still in contention although i think Gosling and Hawke are near guaranteed to be snubbed in my opinion.

BlacKKKlansman and Bohemian Rhapsody(besides Malek) being a thing is kind of ridiculous to me. Widows and Scruggs missing out is disheartening.

Bryan L. said...

I hope Scruggs can at least get a cinematography or a production design nod come Oscar announcement, since those are the only ones that might have a chance I think, and Hail, Caesar! got a production nod a couple of years ago.

Lezlie said...

Well, the fact that Werner Herzog is one of the cast members of The Mandalorian is definitely the WTF moment of the month for me so far. Based on his previous acting work, I wouldn't be surprised if he was playing some droid or alien creature that needs voice work only. Pretty interesting cast overall.

Louis Morgan said...

Tahmeed:

Bannen - 4(He's obviously working with a whole lot of makeup there, but makes an impression through it effectively. In that he actually doesn't play into the grotesque, despite the way the character is presented instead depicting a determined passion through his son. Although he offers the appropriate callousness he shows a certain warmth even when trying to comfort Robert into becoming as cynical as he is. Bannen realizes the state of a true political player, who perhaps knows the nature of it all too well. He's great in his last scene in particular in that cold directness as he puts forward his plan to his son, delivering as though it is this blunt truth. I especially love how he handles his "soon enough" when Robert wishes his death, as it is this resignation both towards this demise, but also with this sense of understanding that he's lost any care his son could have had for him.)

Luke:

Re-watched it finally, it's good but very dated, not always in a great way. At the very least all the film listed above it, I consider better films.

Well I will say The Wife had a great advantage in that I watched it after having watched Venom, and the film that must be seen to be believed, Life Itself. Even with this advantage I found it to be rather witless examination of a subject matter that had theoretically had potential. The film blunders its central conceit that it treats sometimes like it is a mystery, yet it fails to realize this in any meaningful way. There it just ways it could been far more fascinating such as if maybe Slater's character was co-lead really and it was about him uncovering more actively. Instead we kind of know the truth really early so its technique of revealing it seems odd as it just goes about hammering in its theme over and over again, in a rather ham-fisted way. The relationships never really come alive as they should, leaving the drama rather inert.

Close - 3.5(Her performance is just fine for the most part. In terms of a stewing dismay, she performed that much better in Dangerous Liasons. Here she is a touch stoic to a fault, not really conveying much in her endless reaction shots. These should be subtle mind you, but they should be at least evident in some way. They're not really. There is something rather missing in her chemistry with Pryce which again, just seems like juxtaposition rather an authentic toxic relationship between the two. You just get her starring coldly against him acting extremely emotionally, over and over again, until the end where they both get to get extremely emotional in two scenes. There isn't this slow burn though not really, it just kind of happens with Close's performance. Not to the point she's bad, though it is rather underwhelming when it occurs. She handles the more intense scene well enough, but they're not all cathartic as they should be since the film just kind of meanders to that point.)

Pryce - 3(I will say he is helped in my view by the rather terrible performance of Harry Lloyd who essentially reprises Viserys, while lacking the needed charm or allure to make the initial relationship convincing. Pryce is better at this at the very least by having moments of an actual charm here and there. He's not helped by the thankless underdeveloped role which can't decide if the character is a true egomaniac, or a self-loathing fool. It is indecisive leaving Pryce's work similarly out to sea.)

Starke - 2.5(A little bland perhaps, but not terrible or anything.)

Lloyd - 1(Again just awful)

Slater - 3.5(Again MVP as Slater brings a real incisive and dynamic energy to his performance. His scenes actually come to life far more than any other scene as his work invigorates the central idea far more. He creates that sense of intrigue of uncovering the truth, and does well in portraying that dogged determination in the shirked biographer. I wish he had more to do.)

Louis Morgan said...

Bryan:

Sullivan's Travels 2010's directed by The Coen Brothers:

John L. Sullivan: Leonardo DiCaprio
The Girl: Carey Mulligan
Mr. Jonas: John Goodman

Robert MacFarlane said...

What about Max Irons in The Wife? I thought he was even worse than Lloyd.

Michael McCarthy said...

Downey: 5
Patton: 5
Smith: 4.5 (though I realize Louis is almost certain to rate him higher)
Paxton: 4
Cheung: Haven’t seen yet

I’ll get to thoughts when all the technology in my house stops misbehaving.

Also I saw The Favourite and it’s quite the ride, but ultimately quite fascinating. The three central performances are all leads, and deserving of their praise.

Calvin Law said...

Oh PLEASE give your thoughts and ratings on the cast or Venom and Life Itself, and go on a rant about them individually if you like :)

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: Oh dear... *Grabs some popcorn*

Louis Morgan said...

Robert:

I'd agree, he reminded me of Eddie Redmayne in The Good Shepherd, when it comes to the portrayal of the discontented son. His whole performance is just this terrible overwrought note that exacerbates as the film moves him forward to a particularly awful display of melodrama in his "big" scene. Just awful, yes he's playing a rote caricature but he plays right into that caricature in the worst way.

Calvin:

Well I have to admit I didn't think Venom was the dumbest blockbuster of the year, that title goes to Jurassic World 2 still, but it's not far off. I mean the film in some ways is a strange artifact of a time when comic book films where considerably dumber, it would fit at home with say a Batman Forever, and it appears the general public is willing to go back to the dark ages where a film like Blade was an outlier. I WON'T GO BACK, I REFUSE!!!! Because the film is dumb, the plot is aggressively average...and dumb. I will say though there is a bit of an internal conflict going on as part of the film wants to embrace the stupidity, while Ruben Fleischer wants to strangely take it very seriously. I don't think it would have been good either way, but I do think there was some path for the "voice in the head" plot to work in some way. In fact it did better in Upgrade, although that film has problems too.

Hardy - 3(We may be living in the dark world right now as his doppelganger managed to give the better version of this performance in Upgrade. I will say, unlike Fassbender in The Snowman, I could see Hardy attempting to make the film work somehow. This in really embracing the silliness of it all, right down I think to doing the Bob accent again, though this time in making a swirly protagonist in Eddie Brock. I have admit I probably should go lower, but I didn't dislike what Hardy was doing here completely. This is as he's trying to rig this stinker into something that even remotely works, by just going wacky with it. I mean most actors probably would have settled to mediocrity, but I'll give Hardy credit for trying to turn this into some sort of Frakenstein's monster of a performance. I didn't hate, but I struggle to call his performance "good" in a traditional sense.)

Williams - (See now Williams sadly does resign herself to looking just kind of adrift the whole film, not sure of why she is even there. In fact I'm not quite sure.)

Ahmed - 2(See I wish he had joined Hardy in just going over board as that might have made the film actually a bit of fun. Ahmed though instead tries to play it seriously and in turn become very boring very quickly.)

Woody Harrelson - (One of the most hilariously bad movie wigs of all time.)

Having said all that Venom was but a warm up act for the film that was Life Itself...part 2 forthcoming in the next post.

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