Lead actor this year seems to have to close to sure things in Chalamet and DiCaprio, who have powerful films, extremely well regarded performances and all the momentum. Following that is probably Jordan in his twin role, a showy notion however not really all that popular with Oscar voters historically. But given his film is in the top 3, and the likely nomination leader, it is hard to argue against him too much other than the fact that action/genre oriented roles often often struggle more, but probably won't matter this time. Moura has plenty of momentum, awards and is probably well known enough internationally to make the jump, but non-English contenders aren't too common in this category so lock would probably slightly too strong worded even if he's in a very good position. The last spot is the last spot to me, and for me it is probably between Joel Edgerton and Hawke. Edgerton likely will have the stronger film with the academy nomination wise, but Hawke has the far "showier" part. Showy usually wins out so leaning there but wouldn't be surprised by Edgerton getting in either. I wouldn't count out a passion push for Plemons, biopics never hurt either so I wouldn't say Johnson or White are totally out of the game either...in fact I'd say either could easily show up at SAG. Clooney also is around if Jay Kelly has any momentum.
Supporting seems easy, too easy probably. But Penn and Del Toro seem ready to continue the semi-trend of two supporting actors making it, this time as the chief villain and comic relief/comfort of the best picture frontrunner. There's no reason to doubt either. Nor Skarsgård, despite being an obvious lead in his film, his film is probably in the top five, and seems primed for the vet recognition. Speaking of leads, Mescal also in a top five film, in a juicy role as Shakespeare, hard to doubt him either. Leaving only Elordi, who is also in a film that is likely to be in the top 7 at least. He has the raves though, and even detractors tend to praise him. But he is playing a very genre part so I struggle to say lock, despite looking very strong at the moment. BUT Lindo maybe could happen if Sinners overperforms. Sandler if Jay Kelly is a thing. But I do feel pretty comfortable predicting these five.
29 comments:
Happy New Year
Louis: Thoughts on the Actresses.
Happy New Year all!
So that's...three out of 5 in the supporting category that are arguably leads. Nice.
Same predictions as you. I’m slightly skeptical on Hawke, not just on personal bias, but I’m getting 2018 flashbacks.
As for Actress and Supporting Actress, my current guess is;
Byrne/Buckley/Reinsve/Stone/Infiniti Alt: Seyfried or Hudson
Madigan/Grande/Taylor/Fanning/Lilleaas Alt: Mosaku or A’zion
I buy Elordi happening, although I'm going to need to see where SAG goes to feel fully comfortable about it. Part of it is that I get a slight Melton in May December vibe...although Elordi has more 'prestige', and Frankenstein is by far a stronger film nomination wise.
Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on Marty Supreme, I kinda cant stop thinking about it? I’ll give it another watch but it’s a contender to win the year for me.
Exactly the same predictions as you, though I hold out hope that Lee Byung-hun can *ahem* sort out some of the competition here...
And a very happy new year to all!
Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of Went The Day Well and Springsteen.
And Left-Handed Girl, Belen and Late Shift.
Louis: I assume the backlog won't be finished until after 2025 which would be fine by me because I would like to see all recommendations completed which is quite possible with the extended window for Awards season.
Happy New Year's, everyone!
In terms of predictions, I'm holding out hope for Plemons in Lead. In theory, Elordi's role feels like the kind of performance that gets snubbed last minute, but I've a hard time seeing Sandler or Lindo do it. Maybe the latter if he snags a SAG nod.
I'm also remaining fully delusional about Mariam Afshari in Supporting Actress happening until the nominations are announced.
Happy New Year to everyone.
Louis: How would you cast The Seagull using present-day actors?
Happy New Year Louis and everyone!
Emi: With you entirely on the Mariam Afshari train.
Happy New Year, people!
If these predictions will come true, then could it become the most egregious case of lead nominees incorrectly classified as supporting in recent times?
I think it's egregious in regards to Mescal in particular. At least Skarsgard fits the bill of character actor who usually wins supporting. Mescal is a traditionally handsome leading man, fame rapidly rising, in a role that easily would get in Actor on its own. The campaign is based around assumptions early on that the role was smaller due to the novella barely featuring Shakespeare. When people saw the movie, awards pundits should have known better then to keep the narrative, and the studio should have just been honest.
I think Skarsgard's is by far the most egregious of this lot in terms of the film itself, but on the other hand, if he was being campaigned in lead, Neon probably wouldn't be running as strong a campaign for Moura, so I suppose I can't complain too much.
Happy New Year guys
Well if these chosen names by Louis were the Oscar nominees then my rankings are:
1 and 2. DiCaprio and Moura
3. Chalamet
4. Jordan
5. Hawke
1. Penn
2. Del Toro
3. Skarsgård
4. Mescal
5. Elord
I need to rewatch The Secret Agent to break the tie.
Mine would be roughly:
1. Chalamet
2. Jordan
3. Moura
4. DiCaprio
5. Hawke
1. Skarsgård
2. Penn
3. Del Toro
4. Mescal
5. Elordi
Happy new year!
There are a few films I have left to see, but right now my winners across the four categories are Ethan Hawke, Emma Stone*, Sean Penn, and Jodie Comer.
*I have a feeling she'll make way for Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee.
Too early but if I were to take a crack at Louis' rankings(and I have done pretty solid the past 2 years):
1. Moura
2. Chalamet
3. DiCaprio
4. Jordan
5. Hawke
1. Elordi
2. Penn
3. Skarsgård
4. Del Toro
5. Mescal
Been too sick to see Marty Supreme, and The Secret Agent has not played at a single theater in Jersey, so I'll abstain from Lead for now (though I'll say I hold DiCaprio in much higher regard than Jordan or Hawke).
1. Skarsgård
2. Elordi
3. Penn
4. Mescal
5. Del Toro (I don't get the love, tbh)
Maybe I might swap Del Toro and Skarsgård along the way. All 5s in the supporting. Maybe a 4.5 for Hawke in the lead category. If Edgerton gets in the mix, would get it so much more interesting. I LOVED Train Dreams and it was my favorite feature of 2025(but I haven't seen a lot of movies this year), so I don't have a win really, but Edgerton's work is soulful.
What I loved most about Jordan’s performance I think, is the way he was able to portray that Smoke and Stack were deliberately affecting similar mannerisms and ways of carrying themselves despite having very different personalities, presumably due to years of pretending to be the same person to fool the mob. Which is why the second half of his performance as Stack is so poignant to me when he becomes so boisterous and uninhibited, because he knows he’ll never have to pretend to be anyone else again.
My thing about Jordan is that I think he’s a lot of fun as Stack and kind of boring as Smoke. Granted, I’m only mostly positive on Sinners (won’t be in my top 10), so maybe I’m just not seeing something.
hell yeah
Louis: If/when you've finished Pluribus, could I get your thoughts on the finale and the cast.
Will get to requested thoughts but for expediency reasons I will be posting the next review first.
Post a Comment