Lead actor this year seems to have to close to sure things in Chalamet and DiCaprio, who have powerful films, extremely well regarded performances and all the momentum. Following that is probably Jordan in his twin role, a showy notion however not really all that popular with Oscar voters historically. But given his film is in the top 3, and the likely nomination leader, it is hard to argue against him too much other than the fact that action/genre oriented roles often often struggle more, but probably won't matter this time. Moura has plenty of momentum, awards and is probably well known enough internationally to make the jump, but non-English contenders aren't too common in this category so lock would probably slightly too strong worded even if he's in a very good position. The last spot is the last spot to me, and for me it is probably between Joel Edgerton and Hawke. Edgerton likely will have the stronger film with the academy nomination wise, but Hawke has the far "showier" part. Showy usually wins out so leaning there but wouldn't be surprised by Edgerton getting in either. I wouldn't count out a passion push for Plemons, biopics never hurt either so I wouldn't say Johnson or White are totally out of the game either...in fact I'd say either could easily show up at SAG. Clooney also is around if Jay Kelly has any momentum.
Supporting seems easy, too easy probably. But Penn and Del Toro seem ready to continue the semi-trend of two supporting actors making it, this time as the chief villain and comic relief/comfort of the best picture frontrunner. There's no reason to doubt either. Nor Skarsgård, despite being an obvious lead in his film, his film is probably in the top five, and seems primed for the vet recognition. Speaking of leads, Mescal also in a top five film, in a juicy role as Shakespeare, hard to doubt him either. Leaving only Elordi, who is also in a film that is likely to be in the top 7 at least. He has the raves though, and even detractors tend to praise him. But he is playing a very genre part so I struggle to say lock, despite looking very strong at the moment. BUT Lindo maybe could happen if Sinners overperforms. Sandler if Jay Kelly is a thing. But I do feel pretty comfortable predicting these five.
