Monday, 1 January 2018

Another Year and Another Official Lineup

As usual my annual predictions for the official Oscar lineup for Lead and Supporting Actor.
Well for lead actor this is an interesting case where I'd say only front runner Gary Oldman feels absolutely safe. Right now I'm going the SAG five sans Denzel Washington for Daniel Day-Lewis with late comer Phantom Thread, which may or may not have been seen by the SAG voters, however will likely receive a boost from BAFTA either way. It also helps that it is claimed to be his final performance though that should be taken with a grain of salt from the cobbler. Washington should never be discounted though as even though his film was not well received however Washington has never needed his film to do excessively well to get him in. He easily could still find a place only given the state of my other three predictions and even Day-Lewis to a certain extent. Previous nominee James Franco seems poised well enough at his age for a second nomination while also playing a real person, of course if he wasn't playing a real person, well as real as Tommy Wiseau is, it is unlikely this performance would be in the conversation due to its comedic strangeness. That leaves the two youngins, youngins by lead actor standards, Timothée Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya, who have both gotten the needed recognition however are still somewhat atypical for lead actor Chalamet directly for his age, Kaluuya for working within the horror genre which is rarely recognized. Kaluuya's advantage is his film doing inordinately well for the genre riding on the same sort of wave that pushed Mad Max: Fury Road, that wave will need to ride high Oscar nomination morning though. Chalamet's film on the other hand did not over perform at SAG suggesting his film may not be as loved by the industry as it was by the critics. He still got in though so it shouldn't be anything too concerning. This is my predicted five, but there is always the "I can't believe ** did not get nominated" that could be anyone except Oldman out of this five. That could be in favor of the aforementioned Washington, Tom Hanks, though besides that surprise NBR win he's being uniformly ignored once again, or perhaps Jake Gyllenhaal pulling what Ruth Negga did last year who came in the last second for a film that seemingly had came and went. Or maybe just maybe Harry Dean Stanton? Probably not. He needed the critics' recognition to give him a boost given Magnolia's track record, but a man can still dream.
For supporting things are not any easier when the SAG five went against a specific trend for the past twenty five years that being no two actors from the same film in this category have been nominated since Bugsy back in 92. This could be the film that changes that as both Rockwell and Harrelson have substantial enough roles the film just needs to be adored on Oscar morning. Harrelson's appearance actually is what puts Rockwell's nomination most into question as he seems pretty safe however I could see Harrelson supersede him in a surprise snub. I'm predicting both though based on the film building up its momentum. Willem Dafoe seems the most safe despite his film under performing at both SAG and Globes. It is unlikely it will do well at BAFTA either which often ignores "fringe" America films, in fact I could even see Dafoe missing akin to when McCounaghey missed for Dallas Buyers Club or when Melissa Leo missed for The Fighter. If it wasn't for Martin McDonagh's West End playwright cred the same could be feared for Three Billboards, but the film has that on its side. Dafoe though is probably in whether or not he makes it to BAFTA. That leaves Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water who has one major problem in Michael Shannon who just last year superseded his co-star in Nocturnal Animals against all odds. The Shannon Shuffle could easily happen again. My final prediction is for Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World. A late comer to both the race and even his own film however his individual praise and the bonus narrative of stepping in at the last minute to salvage his film seems too juicy for voters to pass up. If Plummer was not already an Oscar winner I could have even conceivably seen him win. Of course this still leaves many other contenders for potential upsets. Steve Carell for Battle of the Sexes stayed in the race even as the rest of his film has been forgotten, that is probably worth something, in fact if say Emma Stone surprised in Actress the narrative for Carell is all the better. Then there are co-stars Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg. Internal competition and problematic since neither showed up at SAG, not even Hammer who was nominated for J. Edgar, of all things. Either could show up still particularly Stuhlbarg who has a banner year where he likely will appear in three best picture nominees. Then there are the potential random nominees like Mark Rylance or Ben Mendelsohn who I still say has a chance to show support for Dunkirk or Darkest Hour, but I'd say their chances are gone if BAFTA doesn't support them. Maybe Jason Mitchell for Mudbound, however it seems like he should have gotten in at SAG if anywhere, and the anti-Netflix bias could easily sink that film as was the case for Beasts of No Nation despite its precursor love. Patrick Stewart got a bit of surprising critical support however that doesn't seem enough to overcome the anti-comic book bias. Then there is Will Poulter who is a very unfortunate case of just being in the wrong role, in the wrong film, at the wrong time, despite the praise he received.

77 comments:

Matt Mustin said...

I can easily see them nominating Plummer as sort of a "screw you" to Kevin Spacey.

Mitchell Murray said...

As far as who I want to see get in, for supporting actor I want it to be Dafoe, Hammer, Harrelson, Jenkins and Rockwell. For lead Oldman and even Franco seem to be in the bag, Chalamet will probably be riding the critics love and Kaluuya the overwhelming success of his movie. Day-Lewis still could sneak in but he desperately needs the Baftas if's he's going to continue in the race.

Calvin Law said...

Supporting is crazy this year. Louis, by 'wrong role' at 'wrong time' are you referring more to the fact it's clashed with Rockwell in Three Billboards, or that your feelings on the film overall have diminished?

Calvin Law said...

Also the Shannon Shuffle needs to be an actual term.

Anonymous said...

Really rooting for Oldman to beat Chalamet. I don't think he was all that in CMYN.

Bryan L. said...

Calvin: I'm guessing that it's Detroit coming out too early to make a big enough impact and Rockwell. I also second "The Shannon Shuffle" to be an official term :D

Lead: Day-Lewis, Oldman, Franco, Hanks (Making up for Captain Phillips snub), and Chalamet

Supporting: Jenkins, Hammer/Stuhlbarg, Dafoe, Plummer and Rockwell


Calvin Law said...

Anonymous: I'll admit too that while I found Chalamet to be impressive in CMBYN, Kaluuya and Franco definitely resonated with me more.

Luke Higham said...

My Predictions are the same as they were previously.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your predictions for Director and Leading/Supporting Actress with your reasons why.

Luke Higham said...

Rating predictions for the lineups you've chosen.

Supporting Actor
Rockwell - 5
Harrelson - 5
Plummer - 5
Dafoe - 4.5
Jenkins - 4.5

Leading Actor
Oldman - 5
Day-Lewis - 5
Franco - 5
Kaluuya - 4.5/5
Chalamet - 4.5

All 4 acting categories are looking great this year though I hope Spencer or Manville will get in ahead of Blige for Supporting Actress.

Anonymous said...

I predicting straight 5's for all the lead actors.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Your updated Over/Underrated directors, actors and actresses lists.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Same predictions as mine, except I predict Hammer in place one of the Three Billboards men. Which one I'm not sure of. If I have to go by just gut feeling, I think Harrelson might get in over Rockwell.

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

"Wrong role" had nothing to do with the way I perceive the quality of his performance.

Luke:

Director:

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Greta Gerwig - Ladybird
Steven Spielberg - The Post

Alternative I'd say Jordan Peele actually as the SAG snub for ensemble seemed more damaging to Call Me By Your Name than Dunkirk or The Shape of Water. He could get in if Get Out truly goes all the way, however from its February release horror roots Screenplay, Actor, and Picture would already be very good gets. Now in terms of the predicted nominees Nolan/Del Toro are the technical visionary noms that usually translate to wins these days. McDonagh and Gerwig are there for how well their films are performing. I'd put Spielberg on the thinnest ground since the Post feels like it could be more of a Bridge of Spies than a Lincoln. I'd say those five plus Peele and Luca Guadagnino are the only other real contenders. Ridley Scott's Globe nomination to me just feels like typical over enthusiasm from the Globe voters when given special privileges.

Actress:

Saoirse Ronan - Ladybird
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Meryl Streep - The Post
Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul
France McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Ronan and Robbie feel protected by the ingenue love usually given to this category, particularly Ronan given the love so far for Ladybird. One can never bet against Streep, to the point her SAG snub gives more credence to voters not seeing the film than rejecting her performance given all the performances of hers they've recognized in the past. McDormand feels safe for her second lead actress nomination given she has always gotten in when she's been in contention, and this is case of an immensely praised performance with her film doing very well. That leaves my prediction of Dench who one can brush off, but really shouldn't. Only a single one of her SAG noms have not translated to an Oscar nomination, and she will definitely be nominated for BAFTA as well. It's a reprise of an Oscar nominated role, it isn't critically beloved yet its reception is far better than was the reception for Elizabeth the Golden Age that garnered Cate Blanchett a nomination for a royal reprise. That leaves a potential snub for Sally Hawkins who unfortunately is stuck between in that she is neither an ingenue nor is she truly a veteran performer in the Academy's eyes. The only time she's gotten in was basically to show further support for Blue Jasmine. I will say I don't want her to be snubbed personally either, however it feels eerily similair to Amy Adams's circumstances last year. There's also Emma Stone who seemed poised for an afterglow nomination when Battle of the Sexes hit the festival circuit, but its buzz faded particularly quickly for a film that was not critically panned. She could pull a Ruth Negga herself, but it doesn't feel like it's happening.

Louis Morgan said...

Supporting Actress:

Laurie Metcalf - Ladybird
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick

Metcalf and Janney are the locks, I don't think anything or anyone is touching them. Going out on a limb here otherwise though. Hunter I think could be nominated the same way she was for Thirteen where she was the sole nomination. Spencer seems like she could potentially become a mainstay supporting player even in similair roles. I'm banking on a emergence of Phantom Thread for Manville, who I'd say needs BAFTA support, which she'll probably get given she was nominated for Another Year there. Predicting the Hong Chau snub only because she is the film's sole support, to a film that otherwise doesn't deserve any support. Blige feels tailor made for Globe nomination, and SAG given they embraced Netflix before. She could make in at Oscars, however as with the other basically streaming only Beasts of No Nation I could see voters rejecting the film.

Calvin Law said...

Yeah Hawkins could easily be in an Arrival situation: film is beloved but the lead performance that holds it together otherwise strangely snubbed.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I'm oddly optimistic that Dench won't steal Hawkins' slot.

Psifonian said...

Correction: the last time there were two Supporting Actor nominees from the same film at SAG, it was "No Country for Old Men," not "The Birdcage," and Jones wound up nominated in lead anyway for a different film.

My lead predictions: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco, Kaluuya, Oldman (Alt: Hanks)

My supporting predictions: Dafoe, Harrelson, Jenkins, Plummer, Rockwell (Alt: Hammer)

Calvin Law said...

Psifonian: What are your thoughts on the performances, out of your predictions, that you've seen?

Augusto BSF said...

Add: Before No Country and after The Birdcage, there was The Contender, with Bridges and Oldman being nominated in supporting at SAG, and only Bridges getting in at Oscars. That being said, that's why I don't bet on Harrelson getting in this time, just like Oldman and Lee Jones. I do feel Stuhlbarg will get in, because of his 'one-scene-wonder' and the fact he is in three strong BP contenders.

My supporting actress prediction is just like Louis' and for the exact same reasons - Blige is, for me, Elba 2.0.

And lead actress, yeah, I see Dench and Williams being the potential spoilers and Hawkins as the weakest link in the category, that, actually, I think it's gonna be the obvious five - the Adams comparison is not that sharp, I think, because Shape Of Water is performing, so far, way better then Arrival, in terms of winnings, and Hawkins as well, compared to Adams, who only won, if I'm not mistaken, the NBR, while Hawkins is the one with most critical groups wins this year. For me, it's more similair to Sandra Bullock in Gravity, the lead that holds the technical marvel of the year that's guided by the oscar winner director, and also a performance that goes for different qualities of those that are usually recognized - although one could say, with reason, that the Academy likes mute characters, a.k.a. John Mills, Patty Duke, Marlee Matlin, Holly Hunter, Jean Dujardin, what only helps Hawkins. The Judi Dench thing seems like a Emily Blunt or Helen Mirren thing from SAG.

Lead actor I'm really not inclined to underestime Washington again, as I did in 2012. I think he's getting in over Franco or Chalamet (any of them being the WTF!? snub of the year) - the globes may help to predict wich one of them, if, like, Kaluuya wins comedy/musical actor, instead of Franco.

Finally, director I think it's gonna happen a big snub again, and since the beginning I'm thinking it will be Nolan one more time, and I keep on it, although, I admit, I'm way less secure about it now, with all this critic support. Maybe it's my personal bias against him and Dunkirk itself, but few sometimes it happens a similairity of tastes between the Academy and me, and Nolan seems to be one of them.

DIRECTOR
Del Toro
McDonagh (can't ignore that the Toronto winner has being nominated here for a while, even when it's a surprising nom, like Abrahamson)
Spielberg
Baker (they love to recognize here children-guided films, even when the industry prizes seems to not give much for them - and the critics' support is there)
Peele (or Gerwig, but, for now, I think Get Out is more like a directorial achievement than Lady Bird, but I gotta say I keep changing these two)

ACTOR
Oldman
Kaluuya
Day-Lewis
Washington
Chalamet

ACTRESS
McDormand
Ronan
Robbie (always gotta have the first-timer - being an ingenue in a personal project only helps her)
Streep
Hawkins (it's strange that I think she'll win the oscar, simultenously to the thought I have she is the weakest of these five)

SUP. ACTOR
Rockwell
Dafoe
Jenkins
Plummer
Stuhlbarg

SUP. ACTRESS
Metcalf
Janney
Spencer
Hunter
Menville (or Scott Thomas, if the BAFTA goes with her)

Luke Higham said...

No way is Nolan getting snubbed.

Psifonian said...

Calvin:

Of the lead performances I’m predicting, I’ve only seen Chalamet and Kaluuya. With Chalamet, I wasn't all that blown away by his performance. He was good, but I genuinely don't see why everyone is losing their collective minds over his performance. I think one of the things that irritates me most about the film is how everything feels portrayed at arm's length, and that level of detachment kind of kills any investment I have in his character, and even though I think that final shot is haunting, I don't rest its power entirely on Chalamet's shoulders. The music goes a hell of a long way towards making that shot work as well as it does. I know people would call it sacrilegious to say anything about Chalamet that isn't vaunting praise, but if he were to win, I'd rate him above Redmayne and Affleck but below the other Best Actor winners this decade. Still, it'd be pretty neat to see the Academy go for someone young in that category for once, and I'd hope to see Chalamet avoid the Timothy Hutton trap if he does.

As for Kaluuya, I think he’s very good and I think it’s such an off-the-wall pick for an acting nomination because it isn't showy at all. He's more or less the straight man to all the wackiness around him, and performances like that rarely get recognized.

With Supporting Actor, I've seen all of my predicted nominees save for Jenkins and Plummer. Dafoe is good and I guess I can see why he's sweeping because he's the one beacon of positivity in the miserable poverty-porn world of "The Florida Project." Harrelson is, for me, the supporting MVP of "Three Billboards" and went a long way towards redeeming the Woodman's rep with me after "The Glass Castle." Rockwell is fine, but I would rate Harrelson, Clarke Peters, Caleb Landry Jones and maybe even Zeljko Ivanek over him just from that cast alone. As for the CMBYN boys, Hammer was miscast as all hell and Stuhlbarg had one really good scene and the rest of it felt like window-dressing.

Techno said...

After watching the possible nominees please give a chance to the Brazilian movie Bingo - The King of Mornings starring Vladimir Brichta.

Louis Morgan said...

Robert:

I'd like to share that optimism, however Dench isn't too far from Streep in terms of popularity with the Academy.

Augosto BSF:

Baker seems unlikely to me due to the Florida Project being snubbed by SAG, besides Dafoe, the Globes, besides Dafoe, and I highly doubt BAFTA will go for that film.

In regards to Hawkins, I wouldn't use the critical wins as a reason for her nomination only because her basic sweep in 08 did nothing for her in the end.

Augosto & Psifonian:

I stand corrected to the SAG fact, and I'll admit it does create a bit more doubt in my mind to both getting in.

Psifonian said...

Louis:

Trends are fickle like that, and this year is markedly weak for diversity in the Supporting Actor lineup, where three films have a strong possibility of getting two supporting men into the lineup. But with SAG going gaga for "Three Billboards," BAFTA sure to follow (McDonagh's a hometown boy), and with Woody having a banner year of his own and being a previous nominee to boot, I'd bet on him and Rockwell to be the double-feature. I think one of either Stuhlbarg/Hammer need BAFTA to stay alive in the race.

Louis Morgan said...

Psifonian:

If Three Billboards peaks at the nominations phase, I think they're both in. I agree BAFTA will probably go for the film due to McDonagh, after all he rightly won best screenplay there for In Bruges, and Gleeson even got a nomination there.

Anonymous said...

Louis what are your BAFTA predictions in the main categories?

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Film:

Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Darkest Hour (if anywhere, here)
Ladybird
The Shape of Water

Director:

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread

Actor:

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
James Franco - The Disaster Artist

Actress:

Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Saiorse Ronan - Ladybird
Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul
Meryl Streep - The Post
France McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Supporting Actor:

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Mark Rylance - Dunkirk
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water

NGNG on the Dafoe snub.

Supporting Actress:

Laurie Metcalf - Ladybird
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Kristin Scott Thomas - Darkest Hour
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Omar Franini said...

Louis: your thoughts on Mudbound cinematography? Are you still saving Hedlund?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Could you add a My Wins post alongside your Top Tens and Nominations. I'll copy and paste the years you've done so far. You have a few Original Song Winners missing and could you add a Best Ensemble award as well.

Louis Morgan said...

Omar:

Mudbound's cinematography I think one could potentially argue is perhaps a bit pristine for the subject matter, however that probably more on Dee Rees's direction than Rachel Morrison's cinematography. The choice is to aim for that general pristine period piece look, found in many films set during the 30, 40's or 50's. It's a fine example of that. I'd say the most impressive elements of it though are in the more dynamic horizon scenes than the interior scenes, which while more than fine, are sort of samey in the use of chiaroscuro. Again don't want to sound too negative though as it is a well shot film.

Nope, Hedlund - 2.5(Yes I didn't care for his performance in the least. I thought he focused far too strongly around creating this man of the 40's and doing so veers closer towards caricature. His whole pre-war mannerisms and delivering are particularly over the top, and doesn't successfully blend naturalism along with establishing the period of the character. He's a bit better when he gets post-war only becomes he tones that down. I don't think he successfully creates a compelling character though as he makes all the character's anguish very one note as something he just falls upon in a simple fashion, and his secondary aspect as the preferred brother is given little development. I think this is one where he would have benefited for going a little stronger in certain moments particularly all of his confrontation scenes with Banks. I find he leaves most of the real heavy lifting to Jason Mitchell, and never becomes at all affecting despite the nature of the role.)

Luke:

Sure.

Matt Mustin said...

Louis, what would your cast be for a 2000's version of Sleuth? An actual adaptation, not whatever that remake was.

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

Anthony Hopkins as Wyke, and Robert Downey Jr. as Tindle.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: I'll do five per comment. There's a few that may need to be fixed.

1971:

Picture: 10 Rillington Place
Director: Richard Fleischer - 10 Rillington Place
Cinematography: McCabe & Mrs. Miller
Score: Duck, You Sucker!
Sound Mixing: Fiddler on The Roof
Sound Editing: THX 1138
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Devils
Production Design: McCabe & Mrs. Miller
Costume Design: McCabe & Mrs. Miller
Editing: The French Connection
Original Screenplay: Dirty Harry
Adapted Screenplay: A Clockwork Orange

1985:

Picture: Back To The Future
Director: Akira Kurosawa - Ran
Production Design: Brazil
Sound Editing: Back to the Future
Sound Mixing: Ran
Score: Back to the Future
Editing: Back to the Future
Visual Effects: Back to the Future
Costume Design: Ran
Cinematography: Ran
Makeup and Hairstyling: Legend
Original Screenplay: Back To The Future
Adapted Screenplay: Ran

2011:

Picture: Drive
Director: Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive
Production Design: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Sound Editing: Take Shelter
Sound Mixing: Drive
Score: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Editing: Drive
Visual Effects: Melancholia
Costume Design: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Cinematography: Drive
Makeup and Hairstyling: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2
Original Screenplay: A Separation
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

1960:
Picture: Psycho
Director: Alfred Hitchcock - Psycho
Production Design: Psycho
Sound Editing: The Time Machine
Sound Mixing: Psycho
Score: Psycho
Editing: Psycho
Visual Effects: The Time Machine
Costume Design: Spartacus
Cinematography: Peeping Tom
Makeup and Hairstyling: Eyes Without A Face
Original Screenplay: The Apartment
Adapted Screenplay: Psycho
Song: "The Green Leaves of Summer" - The Alamo

2005:

Picture: The Propostion
Director: John Hillcoat - The Proposition
Production Design: Kingdom of Heaven
Sound Editing: Kingdom of Heaven
Sound Mixing: Kingdom of Heaven
Score: The Proposition
Editing: Sin City
Visual Effects: King Kong
Costume Design: Kingdom of Heaven
Cinematography: The Proposition
Makeup and Hairstyling: Sin City
Original Screenplay: The Proposition
Adapted Screenplay: A History of Violence
Song: "The Rider Song" - The Proposition

Luke Higham said...

1951:

Picture: Scrooge
Director: Alfred Hitchcock - Strangers on a Train
Production Design: The Tales of Hoffmann
Sound Editing: Ace in the Hole
Sound Mixing: Strangers on a Train
Score: Scrooge
Editing: Strangers on a Train
Visual Effects: Scrooge
Costume Design: The Tales of Hoffmann
Cinematography: Strangers on a Train
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Tales of Hoffmann
Original Screenplay: Ace in the Hole
Adapted Screenplay: Strangers on a Train
Song: "The Cool Cool of the Evening" - Here Comes the Groom

1993:

Picture: Schindler's List
Director: Steven Spielberg - Jurassic Park
Production Design: The Age of Innocence
Sound Editing: Jurassic Park
Sound Mixing: Jurassic Park
Score: Jurassic Park
Editing: Schindler's List
Visual Effects: Jurassic Park
Costume Design: The Age of Innocence
Cinematography: Schindler's List
Makeup and Hairstyling: Mrs. Doubtfire
Original Screenplay: Groundhog Day
Adapted Screenplay: Schindler's List

1937:

Picture: Grand Illusion
Director: Jean Renoir - Grand Illusion
Production Design: Lost Horizon
Sound Editing: The Hurricane
Sound Mixing: The Hurricane
Score: Snow White and the Seven Dwarves
Editing: Grand Illusion
Visual Effects: The Hurricane
Costume Design: The Prisoner of Zenda
Cinematography: Grand Illusion
Makeup and Hairstyling: Make Way For Tomorrow
Original Screenplay: Grand Illusion
Adapted Screenplay: Make Way For Tomorrow

1947:

Picture: Odd Man Out
Director: Carol Reed - Odd Man Out
Production Design: Black Narcissus
Sound Editing: Brute Force
Sound Mixing: Black Narcissus
Score: A Double Life
Editing: The Lady From Shanghai
Visual Effects: Black Narcissus
Costume Design: Black Narcissus
Cinematography: Black Narcissus
Makeup and Hairstyling: Black Narcissus
Original Screenplay: Miracle on 34th Street
Adapted Screenplay: Odd Man Out

1973:

Picture: Badlands
Director: Terrence Malick - Badlands
Production Design: The Holy Mountain
Sound Editing: The Exorcist
Sound Mixing: The Exorcist
Score: Papillon
Editing: The Exorcist
Visual Effects: The Exorcist
Costume Design: The Holy Mountain
Cinematography: Badlands
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Exorcist
Original Screenplay: Badlands
Adapted Screenplay: The Long Goodbye

Luke Higham said...

1984:

Picture: Amadeus
Director: Milos Foreman - Amadeus
Production Design: Amadeus
Sound Editing: The Terminator
Sound Mixing: Nightmare on Elm Street
Score: Once Upon a Time in America
Editing: Amadeus
Visual Effects: Dune
Costume Design: Amadeus
Cinematography: Paris, Texas
Makeup and Hairstyling: Amadeus
Original Screenplay: Paris, Texas
Adapted Screenplay: Amadeus

2012:

Picture: The Hunt
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Production Design: Cloud Atlas
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing: Berberian Sound Studio
Score: Cloud Atlas
Editing: Cloud Atlas
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Costume Design: A Royal Affair
Cinematography: Skyfall
Makeup and Hairstyling: Cloud Atlas
Original Screenplay: The Master
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln

1968:

Picture: Once Upon a Time in the West
Director: Sergio Leone - Once Upon a Time in the West
Production Design: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Sound Editing: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Sound Mixing: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Score: Once Upon a Time in the West
Editing: Once Upon a Time in the West
Visual Effects: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Costume Design: Romeo and Juliet
Cinematography: Once Upon a Time in the West
Makeup and Hairstyling: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Song: "What is a Youth" - Romeo and Juliet
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in the West
Adapted Screenplay: Romeo and Juliet

2003:

Picture: Return Of The King
Director: Peter Jackson - Return of the King
Production Design: Return of the King
Sound Editing: Return of the King
Sound Mixing: Master and Commander
Score: Return of the King
Editing: Master and Commander
Visual Effects: Return of the King
Costume Design: Return of the King
Cinematography: Master and Commander
Makeup and Hairstyling: Return of the King
Song: "Going Home" - Gods and Generals
Original Screenplay: Dogville
Adapted Screenplay: Return of the King

1954:

Picture: On The Waterfront
Director: Akira Kurosawa - Seven Samurai
Production Design: Rear Window
Sound Editing: 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea
Sound Mixing: Seven Samurai
Score: On the Waterfront
Editing: Seven Samurai
Visual Effects: 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea
Costume Design: Seven Samurai
Cinematography: Seven Samurai
Makeup and Hairstyling: Seven Samurai
Original Screenplay: Seven Samurai
Adapted Screenplay: On the Waterfront

Luke Higham said...

1992:

Picture: Unforgiven
Director: Clint Eastwood - Unforgiven
Production Design: Dracula
Sound Editing: Twin Peaks: Fire Walk With Me
Sound Mixing: The Last of the Mohicans
Score: 1492: Conquest Of Paradise
Editing: Unforgiven
Visual Effects: Dracula
Costume Design: Dracula
Cinematography: Unforgiven
Makeup and Hairstyling: Dracula
Original Screenplay: Unforgiven
Adapted Screenplay: The Player

1935:

Picture: 39 Steps
Director: John Ford - The Informer
Production Design: Bride of Frankenstein
Sound Editing: Bride of Frankenstein
Sound Mixing: Mutiny on the Bounty
Score: The Informer
Editing: 39 Steps
Visual Effects: Bride of Frankenstein
Costume Design: The Black Room
Cinematography: Bride of Frakenstein
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bride of Frankenstein
Song: "Cheek to Cheek" - Top Hat
Original Screenplay: The Ghost Goes West
Adapted Screenplay: Bride of Frakenstein

1949:

Picture: The Third Man
Director: Carol Reed - The Third Man
Production Design: Battleground
Sound Editing: Battleground
Sound Mixing: The Third Man
Score: The Third Man
Editing: The Third Man
Visual Effects: Battleground
Costume Design: The Heiress
Cinematography: The Third Man
Makeup and Hairstyling: Kind Hearts and Coronets
Song: "The Headless Horseman" - The Adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad
Original Screenplay: The Third Man
Adapted Screenplay: The Heiress

1974:

Picture: Chinatown
Director: Roman Polanski - Chinatown
Production Design: The Godfather Part II
Sound Editing: The Conversation
Sound Mixing: The Conversation
Score: The Conversation
Editing: The Conversation
Visual Effects: Young Frankenstein
Costume Design: Chinatown
Cinematography: The Godfather Part II
Makeup and Hairstyling: Phantom of the Paradise
Song: "The Hell of It" - Phantom of the Paradise
Original Screenplay: Chinatown
Adapted Screenplay: The Godfather Part II

1988:

Picture: Grave Of The Fireflies
Director: Robert Zemeckis - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Production Design: The Adventures of Baron Munchausen
Sound Editing: Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Sound Mixing: Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Score: Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Editing: Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Visual Who Framed Roger Rabbit?
Costume Design: Dangerous Liaisons
Cinematography: The Last Temptation of Christ
Makeup and Hairstyling: Beetlejuice
Best Original Screenplay: A Fish Called Wanda
Best Adapted Screenplay: Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

Luke Higham said...

2010:

Picture: I Saw The Devil
Director: David Fincher - The Social Network
Production Design: Shutter Island
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Scott Pilgrim vs The World
Score: The Social Network
Editing: The Social Network
Visual Effects: Inception
Costume Design: Let the Bullets Fly
Cinematography: Valhalla Rising
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Way Back
Original Screenplay: Animal Kingdom
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

1965:

Picture: The Hill
Director: David Lean - Doctor Zhivago
Production Design: Doctor Zhivago
Sound Editing: Thunderball
Sound Mixing: Doctor Zhivago
Score: For a Few Dollars More
Editing: The Hill
Visual Effects: Thunderball
Costume Design: Chimes at Midnight
Cinematography: Doctor Zhivago
Makeup and Hairstyling: Red Beard
Song: "What's New Pussycat" - What's New Pussycat
Original Screenplay: Red Beard
Adapted Screenplay: The Hill

Charles Heiston said...

I think supporting actor is spot on. But lead could go either way in my opinion, Kaluuya and Franco don't feel locked to me.

Charles Heiston said...

Louis: Could DiCaprio be downgraded or even upgraded for The Aviator?

Luke Higham said...

Charles: He'll probably remain the same.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Well, since Psifonian gave his thoughts on the likely nominees he's seen, I may as well.

Kaluuya - One of my favorite performances of the year. Creates so much suspicion, fear, and tragedy with just his eyes alone. Plus I've always loved low-key every-man performances like this, so I was destined to love his work from the start.

Oldman - He's got some very good moments here and there, like his phone call with FDR. I'll give him full marks for commitment as well. But overall, he's letdown by a script that constantly fumbles, and the big moments of power that are supposed to be his money scenes feel too broad for even someone like Churchill.

Franco - I'd be lying if I said I didn't find him funny. I did. It's a great impression and he's got some nice scenes where he humanizes the man. That said... It's more like the greatest SNL impression of all time than something I would call Odcar-worthy. It doesn't help that the film ultimately glosses over what a toxic person Wiseau was. I guess I enjoy the idea of him getting nominated more for the novelty of it.

Harrelson - He's definitely got his moments (the interrogation scene in particular), but I kind of thought his voice over line deliveries of the letter was pretty mawkish.

Rockwell - Well... he sells it as good as any actor could with the least believable character arc of the year. I know I shouldn't punish an actor for a poorly written role, but no actor could have saved this one for me. Even so, I don't think it's even close to his previous peaks.

Jenkins - Really? I mean, he's fine, but... really? A coattail nod by definition. His lovable sitcom gay best friend routine isn't bad or anything, but he's not even the Best Supporting Actor in his own movie.

Dafoe - By far my favorite part of The Florida Project and a performance I like more and more in hindsight. His mixture of exasperation, patience, and generosity basically save the film from its own inherent misery and redundancy. Plus whenever he pops up, it's usually a well-needed distraction from the film's increasingly blunt illustrations of how horrible of a mother Halley is.

Matt Mustin said...

Robert: Kaluuya brings a lot of understated humour to Get Out as well. His early exasperation is pretty amusing at first, until it turns tragic.

Louis Morgan said...

Saw Victoria & Abdul finally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Fvsgv0bYw

Calvin Law said...

Oh dear. Thoughts on the film and the cast?

Robert MacFarlane said...

Even if Dench gets nominated, I would sooner bathe in a tub of used heroin needles than watch that film.

Michael McCarthy said...

Psifonian: I totally agree about Chalamet, he hasn't stayed with me as well as I thought he would. As for Hammer, he wouldn't have been my first pick for that role either but I really think he sold the hell out of it. I can see why you might see most of Stuhlbarg's performance as window dressing, that's kind of how I felt about it until his last scene, which basically I read as him telling his son that he's gay. This I'd argue gives another layer of meaning to his earlier scenes, such as his enthusiasm for Oliver to validate his appreciation of the nude sculptures, and his defensiveness when it seems like Elio is making fun of their gay friends.

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

Well it is easiest to explain why I disliked the film just through the cast.

Dench - 3(This is such a regression from her work in Mrs. Brown, as well as compared to her previous collaboration with Stephen Frears with Philomena where she brought something new through her performance. Her work in Mrs. Brown was not typical Dench but this time it is. This time she's just there for her own witty commanding one liners with a certain cheekiness at other times. Throw in a couple of melancholy scenes for Oscar measure. This is not the far more complicated woman we met in Mrs. Brown with her own history. It is a simplistic take on just making Victoria the powerful woman and that's about it in order to fit into the Dench type. Now this is not a horrendous example of Dench just doing her usual thing, although some of the lines and scenes she has to work with are quite terrible, but it's an immensely disappointing as a reprise of one of her more compelling turns from the past.)

Fazal - 2(Now here is where the real serious problems of the film lie, and it isn't so much his performance but the awful writing behind the character. Mrs. Brown told the tale of a complicated relationship between the Queen and Mr. Brown, a man who had his own ambitions and flaws. This is thrown out the window for the one note relationship here given that in order to avoiding any negative or even slightly questionable qualities in the man. This unfortunately turns him into a different type of caricature making him a one note positive servile character. Any complications only results from those stuffed shirts to the side. This leaves Fazal with nothing to work with, but he also doesn't add much. He basically carries this same perpetual slight smile to reinforce the goodness of the man who seems only to live in order to reassure the Queen. It's a terribly conceived role, in a terribly conceived film, and Fazal doesn't make up for it. It's a shame as both definitely had potential.)

Izzard - 3(I'll give him credit given he has a terrible role, as basically just a one note villain, yet he does try to find bit of nuance whenever he can such as delivering an honest grief at his mother's death, and not making his frustrations towards Abdul as over the top as they could have been.)

Matt Mustin said...

By the way, if I didn't know that picture you used was of Gary Oldman, I never would have guessed it was.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Matt) I think its the prothestic chin that throws me off so much.

Matt Mustin said...

Mitchell: It has to be said that it's terrific makeup.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Matt) Indeed.

Mitchell Murray said...

And I'm not sure if this has been asked already, but how does everybody feel about Kimmel hosting the oscars again? I thought he was fine the first time but I personally want to see an older or more experienced comedian host, like John C Reilly

Matt Mustin said...

Louis, you may have been asked this before, but what are your thoughts on Dan Castellaneta as the Robot Devil on Futurama?

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on these Superman TAS episodes:
Prototype
Heavy Metal
Ghost in the Machine

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Are you gonna watch The Florida Project tonight. It's now online.

Bryan L. said...

Mitchell: I'm fine with it, but I'm actually looking forward to see if he reacts to Matt Damons flops from this year and his recent comments.

Bryan L. said...

Mitchell: Although I doubt he will considering the severity of the topic at hand.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Louis: Could Hugh Griffith and/or Arthur Connell go up to a 4.5 for their nominated performances in 1959.

Anonymous said...

Louis would Alain Delon be great fit for CMBYN as Elio if it was the earlier 60s?

Anonymous said...

Gary Oldman dancing to James Brownas Churchill is just comedic I urge everyone to see it, great stuff.

Luke Higham said...

Anonymous: Saw it on Graham Norton a few nights ago, it was quite surreal. :)

Luke Higham said...

Guys, is there a performance from a film that you have middling or less expectations for next year that you're excited about. My pick is Tom Hardy in Venom.

Bryan L. said...

Luke: Del Toro and Brolin in Sicario 2: Electric Boogaloo (I know it's Soldado haha).

I also think Venom is going to weigh down Tom Harry's performance (although I hope it won't), whom I expect will try his best, as usual.

Mitchell Murray said...

If I'm going on the trailers I've seen recently, then in terms of a performance I'm interested in seeing with a film I don't expect too much of, it would strangely be Emily Blunt and her husband in "A Quiet Place"

Luke Higham said...

Bryan L: It's definitely a possibility due to Fleischer's recent track record (Gangster Squad was a god-awful mess with one of Penn's absolute worst performances, which there've been many), yet Hardy has managed to rise well above a middling film before with Legend, so I'd say between a 3.5 to a 4.5.

Calvin Law said...

Luke:

Kyrie Irving in Uncle Drew
Lady Gaga in A Star is Born
Jamie Lee Curtis in Halloween
Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsodu

Luke Higham said...

Calvin: Have to add Malek as well. Playing my favourite lead singer of all-time is gonna be quite the challenge for Rami, though I pray hope he pulls it off.

Calvin Law said...

Louis: your thoughts on Villeneuve taking on Cleopatra?

Luke Higham said...

Calvin: Is Villeneueve supposed to direct Dune next.

Calvin Law said...

Yeah Dune is coming up first (I think).

Luke Higham said...

I would be looking forward to Cleopatra if it wasn't for Jolie who was dreadful in Alexander (Though it's funny how she was the only one of the Macedonians to even try a Greek accent when everyone else spoke with either English or Irish).

At the moment, My choice for Cleopatra is Gal Gadot.

Bryan L. said...

If they're taking a political thriller approach to Cleopatra (which is what the writer said he's doing), then yes, Villeneuve would be a good choice. I think that approach would best serve contemporary audiences, although it remains to be seen if it'll fit the story.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Luke) I'll actually save my thoughts on Gadot's most notable performance for the moment, but I'll say that she'd be a good fit at least as far as ethnicity and even charisma.

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

No. It's a pretty entertaining bit of voice work from him through the sheer amount of sort endearing though slightly menacing he brings in the part.

Anonymous:

Prototype - (Don't remember the episode)

Heavy Metal - (Decent episode as an introduction to Steel, even if they really didn't do much with him overall. It's an effective enough sort of teamup episode if just slightly repetitive in the use of Superman getting beaten down by Metalllo every time the same way.)

Ghost in the Machine - (Don't remember the episode, not sure I've seen it.)

Tahmeed:

No.

Calvin:

I'm fine with it as it'll be interesting to see what he can do with a period piece, I hope he can find the right cast however.

On a side note I wonder if Dune will come next as I think there might be hesitation when Blade Runner didn't make money, and he'll be "remaking" another film that underwhelmed at the box office.

Evan Hanson said...

Prediction for Best Actor:
Gary Oldman: Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet: Call Me by Your Name
James Franco: The Disaster Artist
Daniel Day-Lewis: Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya: Get Out
Alt: Tom Hanks (The Post), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Isreal, Esq)

Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe: The Florida Project
Armie Hammer: Call Me by Your Name
Sam Rockwell: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins: The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer: All the Money in the World
Alt: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name), Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

Emi Grant said...

I really agree with your predictions, though, I'm personally all-in on the Shannon Shuffle.