Monday, 11 September 2017

Alternate Best Actor 1949

And the Nominees Were Not:

Anton Walbrook in The Queen of Spades

David Farrar in The Small Back Room

Robert Ryan in The Set-Up

Howard Vernon in Le Silence de La Mer

Chishū Ryū in Late Spring

And a Special Review of:
Toshiro Mifune in Stray Dog

104 comments:

Anonymous said...

Only watched Ryan out of these nominees.
1. Ryan
2. Walbrook
3. Ryu
4. Farrar
5. Vernon

Charles Heiston said...

I'll make my prediction later, but so hyped for Mifune's review.

Giuseppe Fadda said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Walbrook
4. Farrar
5. Vernon

I've only seen Ryu and he's magnificent, as is Setsuko Hara.

Calvin Law said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Farrar
4. Walbrook
5. Vernon

Calvin Law said...

Louis: your thoughts on Don S. Davis in Twin Peaks? And on that note, this scene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjeCNnbVYAQ

Maciej said...

1.Ryu
2.Ryan
3.Farrar
4.Walbrook
5.Vernon

Luke Higham said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Farrar
4. Walbrook
5. Vernon

Luke Higham said...

Louis: You've listed The Small Black Room instead of The Small Back Room.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: With Late Spring, could you also watch Early Summer from 1951, since they're both part of Ozu's Noriko trilogy along with Tokyo Story.

GM said...

1. Ryan
2. Vernon
3. Walbrook
4. Farrar
5. Ryu

Robert MacFarlane said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Vernon
4. Walbrook
5. Farrar

RatedRStar said...

She has returned.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-mvlVeEy9Y

RatedRStar said...

Anton Walbrook looks like he would make a great rock singer, imagine him in My Chemical Romance.

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Farrar
4. Vernon
5. Walbrook

JackiBoyz said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Farrar
4. Walbrook
5. Vernon

Charles Heiston said...

I'll go for Ryu. He's outstanding.

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Walbrook
4. Farrar
5. Vernon

RatedRStar said...

I will change mine, watching the trailer Walbrook looked pretty hamtastic.

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Walbrook
4. Farrar
5. Vernon

Anonymous said...

Louis: Be sure you watch House of Strangers (With Edward G. Robinson) and Caught (With James Mason)

Mitchell Murray said...

Reviews for "Battle Of The Sexes" are in, and there pretty much exactly how the trailer suggested - nothing amazing, Stone is her usual solid self, Carell is a cartoon.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Actually the reviews are a little better than that. Stone can get nominated.

Luke Higham said...

I'm actually glad about Carell, means he won't have to compete against himself for Last Flag Flying, which is infinitely more promising.

Robert MacFarlane said...

More depressingly, Roman J. Israel esq. is getting evicirated by critics.

Louis Morgan said...

Calvin:

Davis - (Well Davis, and Major Briggs as a character are one of my favorite aspects of the series, and even the revival in a rather clever way. In the original series though the character and Davis on first sight appear as though he's just going to be this standard military father with the rebellious no good son. Well he's not that all even if you might see that on first viewing. On one part this is a brilliantly off-beat performance despite seeming straight. Davis realizes this specific gravity of the good military man yet grants it to no matter what he's talking about, no matter how distant the information may be, or how odd his behavior may be. There is consistency in his work that makes this humorous in a very specific way. This is only the first subversion though as such a character on first glance you'd assume would just be this stern father. Davis though reveals this abundance of of genuine warmth in the role that is particularly endearing. I'd say the scene you listed is a highlight of his work, and one of the most poignant moments in the series. Davis makes it something special as he even creates something truly pure and special about the supernatural world of Twin Peaks through the beautiful story he tells Bobby. It's such a moving scene as we see the often rebellious son fully appreciate his father for once, and it even seems to setup where his character goes later on. That scene and Davis's performance though shows sort of the magic of Lynch as at times the character is perhaps played for laughs, successfully, yet this never prevents him from being a deeply heartfelt character as well.)

Mitchell:

The initial reactions from Telluride were even more positive though so I think the general reception could be fairly strong when everyone weighs in. Carrell's probably only good for a Globe nomination, yet the film and especially Stone could go far.

Robert:

A real shame, and even Washington's performance did not escape the evisceration.

Anonymous said...

Louis: For a 1980's version of Hell or High Water, what do you think of Bronson as Marcus?

Mitchell Murray said...

Louis: To state the obvious, Stone seems to be an actress you like quite a bit. What are your top 5 performances of her's and in what movies has she in your opinion dropped the ball? As much as I like her myself she has been in some turkeys.

Luke Higham said...

Mitchell:

1. La La Land
2. Birdman
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
4. The Help
5. Irrational Man

Don't know what he'd give her for Zombieland.

And he has yet to see Easy A.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

Great choice.

Mitchell:

I'd say in terms of her input that I've seen, since she was the best part of The Amazing Spider 2 for example, she only really sort of dropped the ball in Irrational Man, then again Allen wrote her a very tired role there though she still wasn't terrible, and Zombieland, even though I like the film well enough I find her kind of somewhat off and strangely lacking her usual charisma in that film.

Mitchell Murray said...

I remember Zombieland as the first movie I actually saw Emma Stone in, and while I thought she was fine her performance does feel kind of muted compared to the work she's done recently.

I must say as someone whose followed her from the start, I am impressed with how she has matured into a very capable performer. I like how she's expanded her range and depth of roles substantially while still holding onto that perky, one of a kind charm - and almost never coasting on it alone like for example Julia Roberts.

Matt Mustin said...

I first saw her in Superbad, and I was immediately attracted to her. And then Easy A came around and I realized she could act, too.

Anonymous said...

Louis: your top 20 omar sharif and albert finney acting moments

Calvin Law said...

I'm not a big fan of Easy A myself, Birdman is the first time I saw her in something I was truly impressed by.

94dfk1 said...

Louis: Would Gosling's and Stone's, uh, "last glance" in La La Land rank amongst your top 10 moments for each actor respectively? Oh and thoughts and ratings for John Legend in the aforementioned movie?

I came here to ask about Stone and everyone's already talking about her haha.

Mitchell Murray said...

I'm like many people I guess because I remember Easy A as an alright comedy elevated immensely by Stone. Birdman, on the other hand, is one of my favourite movies to come out of the last few years. And it features Stone at perhaps her most trans-formative and attuned.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Easy A is a good movie with a GREAT Stone performance. She's my win for Best Actress that year.

Mitchell Murray said...

(94dfk1): I found that moment in the movie to be on point. Credit is due to the musical background as well but both actors absolutely earn that moment. And John Legend's song is one of the many things that improved with the re-watch..he was fine in the movie but I still find myself listening to "Start a fire".

Mitchell Murray said...

I should also say "La La Land" has done nothing but grow on me ever since I first saw it. I'm a little disheartened at some of the backlash it has now but I accept it as part of how these things play out.

Robert MacFarlane said...

My opinion of La La Land remains the same of what it was when I saw it: It's good. Hated the first twenty minutes entirely (awkward choreography, camera, and sound mixing killed the first two numbers), but I got into it once I saw Gosling stripped of dignity, playing the keytar. Loved Stone's performance.

Matt Mustin said...

I also maintain the same opinion of La La Land as I did when I first saw it, and that opinion is that it's one of my favourite movies of all time, and I honestly mean that.

Matt Mustin said...

I've already seen it five times. Three times in theatres, twice on Blu-ray.

Mitchell Murray said...

I have no guilt in saying its my best picture winner.

9) Hidden Figures
8) Hacksaw Ridge
7) Lion
6) Fences
5) Manchester By The Sea
4) Hell Or High Water
3) Arrival
2) Moonlight
1) La La Land

Robert MacFarlane said...

At least you ranked Hacksaw Ridge low. I hate more and more the more I think about it.

Calvin Law said...

La La Land really hasn't stayed with me all that much, though I still like it. My ranking of the Best Picture nominees has actually changed substantially:

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Hell or High Water (has grown on me a lot)
5. Arrival
6. Lion
7. La La Land
8. Hidden Figures
9. Fences

Robert MacFarlane said...

Mine would be something like:

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hell or High Water
4. La La Land
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Lion
7. Fences
8. Hidden Figures
9. Several ancient torture devices forgotten by history
10. Hacksaw Ridge

The first two are in my top 5 and are more or less tied for my 3rd and 4th favorites of the year. The rest are varying degrees of good to okay. Mel Gibson can kindly retire.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Robert): Personally I don't hate Hacksaw Ridge.. I actually consider it a very decent biopic about an utterly fascinating man. Gibson is perhaps too enthusiastic with his action sequences and religious symbolism, and the supporting cast is quite uneven. But the sheer inspiring nature of Doss's story, and Garfield's performance, negate those flaws for me.

Robert MacFarlane said...

What annoys me so much is that there about a thousand ways Doss' story could have worked, but a bloodthirsty lunatic like Mel Gibson was the worst possible man to tell that story. It's like asking Rob Zombie to direct Schindler's List.

Calvin Law said...

I think Gibson was the perfect choice, actually. The first film where I thought his Christian imagery actually worked.

Robert MacFarlane said...

It was hypocritical violence fetishization that tries to have it both ways with its pious sermonizing.

Mitchell Murray said...

In any case I think we can agree it aside from its technical achievements, it wouldn't have been a worthy winner in any category. Garfield is the 5th slot for sure but to me anyways that says a lot for the strength of the year.

Calvin Law said...

Garfield's my win for the year actually. His work in that has stayed more than his Silence work for me, and I give it wins in the editing and sound categories too. I guess we'll all have to just agree to disagree on this front.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I didn't even like the technicals or Garfield. The editing on particular is a big reason why it's so heavy handed.

Matt Mustin said...

I think Garfield took the right approach, but I can understand why it would be hard to stomach the character as written. It didn't bother me. I didn't hate nor did I love the editing, I thought it was good enough, but I did in fact love the sound design.

Mitchell Murray said...

At the very least, I found "Hacksaw Ridge" more inspired and memorable than "Hidden Figures". If there's any of the 9 pictures I would have taken out its that.

Calvin Law said...

I will agree that its script isn't an overly strong element though.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I maintain Garfield was absolutely awful in Hacksaw and aggressively don't buy the argument that his was the right approach to that character.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Robert) To each their own. Nobody here can say your wrong.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Yeah, sorry I got worked up. Let me go finish writing my angry-ass Death Note review.

Charles Heiston said...

My ranking of best picture nominees has only changed a bit, my opinion on Hacksaw Ridge & La La Land has went down only a tad.

1. Hell or High Water
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. La La Land
5. Arrival
6. Moonlight
7. Lion
8. Hidden Figures
9. Fences

Mitchell Murray said...

(Charles): I would now like to ask why you rank Hidden Figures above Fences?

Charles Heiston said...

Mitchell: They're basically equal to me. So no particular reason. I don't love either of them. 6-9 is pretty mixed to me.

Calvin Law said...

I'd say that though it was cliched, there were some scenes in Hidden Figures that hit REALLY hard.

Robert: don't apologize, debate on this blog is what often draws me here.

Mitchell Murray said...

For what it was I actually didn't mind Fences though I like Washington's performance far more than Davis's. Hidden Figures, for as much as I wanted to know about its three women, I couldn't help but feel was built out of familiar, unremarkable parts from other movies of the sort - that goes double for Spencer's performance. And as for Lion, I have to admit I found the way it handled the story quite moving. Patel is damn near revelatory in the role of Saroo, and Kidman is my supporting actress win.

Giuseppe Fadda said...

My ranking of last year's Best Picture nominees would likely be:

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. La La Land
4. Hell or High Water
5. Fences
6. Lion
7. Hidden Figures
8. Manchester by the Sea
9. Hacksaw Ridge

Honestly I only really like the first four. Fences is a strong but flawed movie, Lion is a rather solid one elevated by the performances, Hidden Figures is clichéd but rather moving and engaging and I found both Manchester by the Sea and Hacksaw Ridge to be extremely problematic. Even though I liked Garfield more than him, I completely agree with Robert about the movie.

Matt Mustin said...

I finished season 2 of Game of Thrones, and while I really liked the first season, I absolutely loved this one. I thought the acting from pretty much everyone was great, and it's very difficult, almost impossible for me to pick an MVP, but if I had to, I'm torn between Peter Dinklage and Alfie Allen, with a very slight edge to Allen I believe, although they're both exceptional. I want to give special mention too, though, to Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, the moving and underrated turns from Francis Magee and Donald Sumpter, and in particular Rory McCann's brilliant performance in "Blackwater".

Anonymous said...

Looks like Breathe is getting poor reviews so far, all negative on Rotten Tomatoes, looks like Jake Gyllenhaal will be flying the Oscar bait flag this year.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

1. Ryu
2. Ryan
3. Farrar
4. Walbrook
5. Vernon

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Also, not going to lie, my opinion on Hacksaw Ridge hasn't declined in the slightest. It's still my #2 film of last year, and Garfield just barely misses out on my top 5 for Lead Actor.

Calvin Law said...

I thought It was splendid. Not every scare worked but majority of the time it was an intensely compelling thrill ride. I also thought the humour and emotional side of things was impeccably handled. Technical elements were absolute perfection.

Lieberher: 4 (very strong leading work, stutter handled in a very naturalistic fashion and makes his character's straightforward determination deeply moving)

Skarsgård: 4 (I'll admit I don't see the amazing performance some do, my views on him are similar to Robert Blake in Lost Highway, creepy and unsettling work amplified by excellent direction)

Taylor: 4 (a delightful Chunk-esque sort, and does a lot without much backstory, and I found every moment he had individually to be either really funny or endearing. I thought he was particularly great with Lillis.)

Lillis: 4 (will probably go up. A very strong performance, and I also consider her co-lead with Lieberher, though just barely. I thought she brought a lot of weight to her character's awful predicament in life, and made her blossoming friendship with the boys really poignant)

Wolfhard: 3.5 (I found a few of his deliviries off, but I thought his slightly charming if obnoxious take was pretty well done for a character whose intent is pretty much to be just that. The slightly off moments also don't matter as he amplifies the horror scenes really well like the rest of the cast, and his showdown with Pennywise was perfection)

Oleff: 3.5 (liked his work even though he was often sidelined, as the most meek and reluctant in the group to confront It, and I thought his more emotional moments were really well done)

Jacobs: 3.5 (they don't give quite enough time to dwell on his haunted past but it doesn't matter since Jacobs absolutely nails that moment, in addition he just meshes so well with the rest of the group despite entering so late into the proceedings)

Grazer: 4 (another performance I think will go up, granted Eddie is my favourite character, but he handled his haracter's fear and neuroses in an entertaining but also quite affecting fashion, making his turnaround feel really well earnt)

Hamilton: 3.5 (helps that he looks a bit like a grungier Charlie Heaton, but I thought this was a fairly good straightforward Stephen King bully sort with just enough nuance in the margins)

Scott: 3 (again amplified by the direction, but appropriately endearing and then very creepy as ol Georgie)

Anonymous said...

Louis: what would be your cast and director for a 2010s version of Mystic River, Chinatown and Rebecca?

Anonymous said...

Louis: Also, what are your top 10 favorite screenwriters?

Calvin Law said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMKX2tE5Luk

Well this 'The Disaster Artist' trailer has me a LOT more stoked for the film than that teaser.

Luke Higham said...

Calvin: Much Better. :)

Luke Higham said...

J.J. = Ep IX

Calvin Law said...

Can't say it's a bad choice at all, though a surprise to be sure.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Would have preferred something new (I wanted Ava, goddammit), but I'm fine with this.

Tahmeed Chowdhury said...

Well, given that The Force Awakens is my 3rd favorite Star Wars film, I'm actually glad that JJ Abrams is back.

Mitchell Murray said...

Thoughts on the new "Disaster Artist" and "Downsizing" trailers?

For me personally, the former looks less gimmicky then the teaser presented it as, and Franco honestly seems like he's trying to lose himself in the role.

The later actually looks a little too gimmicky strangely, but I could be wrong. Damon is more a likable guy than a great actor but this type a role seems to suit his wheelhouse.

Louis Morgan said...

94dk1:

#12 for Gosling, #3 for Stone.

Legend is just fine in the role, a role I feel was widely misinterpreted as villainous in the absurd backlash against the film. Legend gives just an effectively straight forward portrayal though of the guy properly showing that he's not really anything Sebastian describes him as, and Legend brings the right low key passion to his breakdown of Sebastian's philosophy, though properly without any venom to it. He naturally also nails his performance, as one would expect, but overall there's just no much of him.

Anonymous:

Sharif:

1. The Private Life is Dead - Doctor Zhivago
2. "No Prisoners" - Lawrence of Arabia
3. Drifters in the snow - Doctor Zhivago
4. Lawrence's heritage - Lawrence of Arabia
5. Woman in the crowd - Doctor Zhivago
6. "He drank from my well" - Lawrence of Arabia
7. Hearing Komarovsky's offer - Doctor Zhivago
8. Losing heart - Lawrence of Arabia
9. Returning Home - Doctor Zhivago
10. "ENGLISH!" - Lawrence of Arabia
11. Meeting his brother - Doctor Zhivago
12. Strategy - Lawrence of Arabia
13. Treating the gunshot - Doctor Zhivago
14. His ambition for his people - Lawrence of Arabia
15. Leaving Lara initially - Doctor Zhivago
16. Threatening Tayi - Lawrence of Arabia
17. Treating Lara's mother - Doctor Zhivago
18. First Visit to Lara - Doctor Zhivago
19. The Train - Doctor Zhivago
20. Killing "Clouseau" - The Pink Panther Strikes Again

Finney:

1. Final Scene - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
2. "Danny Boy" - Miller's Crossing
3. After the funeral - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
4. Mrs. Pussycat - The Gathering Storm
5. Eating - Tom Jones
6. Thank yous - The Dresser
7. "Dead From the neck Down" - Saturday Morning and Sunday Night
8. Preventing the retribution - Miller's Crossing
9. Story of Hitler - The Gathering Storm
10. Learning the truth - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
11. Attempted reconciliation - Miller's Crossing
12. A new ingenue - The Dresser
13. Preparing the speech - The Gathering Storm
14. Hanging Tom - Tom Jones
15. Madness in the rain - Under the Volcano
16. Redemption medley - Scrooge
17. Arriving after the robbery - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
18. Beat down - Miller's Crossing
19. Discussing Fascism - Under the Volcano
20. Stopping the train - The Dresser

Louis Morgan said...

Matt:

Always glad to hear any praise for Donald Sumpter's extremely underrated work.

Luke:

Can't say I'm too happy about that, Abrams only seems to have a single bag of tricks, and those tricks get pretty stale pretty quickly.

Anonymous:

Mystic River Directed by Ben Affleck:

Jimmy: Joaquin Phoenix
Dave: Casey Affleck
Sean: Ben Affleck
Sergeant Powers: Michael K. Williams
Celeste: Samantha Morton
Annabeth: Michelle Monaghan
Brendan Harris: Jack O'Connell

Chinatown directed by Anton Corbijn:

Jake Gittes: Tom Hardy
Evelyn Mulwray: Jessica Chastain
Lieutenant Escobar: Javier Bardem
Ida Sessions: Gretchen Mol
Noah Cross: Stacy Keach

Rebecca directed by Cary Fukunaga:

Second Mrs. de Winter: Sarah Gadon (Hopefully 11.22.63 Gadon)
Maxim de Winter: Matthias Schoenaerts
Mrs. Danvers: Tara Fitzgerald
Jack Favell: Tobias Menzies

Difficult to make such a list since it really just be my favorite writer/directors. The reason being though few screenwriters, as just screenwriters, have great track records, and for many of them that probably isn't their fault. The thing is though only the writer/directors have any measure of quality control over their script past a certain phase.

Anonymous said...

Louis what are your updated predictions for Picture, Director, and the acting categories?

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Ratings and thoughts on the cast of The Gathering Storm.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Have you seen Brendan Gleeson in Into The Storm.

Luke Higham said...

Louis: And will you be watching The Crown anytime soon.

Louis Morgan said...

Mitchell:

I greatly preferred the full trailer for the Disaster Artist, looking like a somewhat Ed Woodesque portrait on the sort of a mad and terrible filmmaker I was hoping for.

Downsizing from the trailer looks like it is having a lot of fun with the concept, though I wonder how wholly true it is towards the tone of the film.

Anonymous:

Well here's hoping the rest of the unseen deliver.

Picture:

Dunkirk (Winner)
The Post
Battle of the Sexes
Last Flag Flying
The Darkest Hour
PTA Project
The Shape of Water
Stronger
Wind River

Director:

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk (Winner)
Steven Spielberg - The Post
Richard Linklater - Last Flag lying
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
PTA - PTA Project

Actor:

Gary Oldman - The Darkest Hour (Winner)
Daniel Day-Lewis - PTA Project
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Jeremy Renner - Wind River

Actress:

Meryl Streep - The Post
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother
Emma Stone - Battle of the Sexes
Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

Supporting Actor:

Steve Carrell - Last Flag Flying (Winner)
Ben Mendelsohn - The Darkest Hour
Idris Elba - Molly's Game
Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
Mark Rylance - Dunkirk

Supporting Actress:

Melissa Leo - Novitiate (Winner)
Kristin Scott Thomas - The Darkest Hour
Andrea Riseborough - The Battle of the Sexes
Tatiana Maslany - Stronger
Supporting Actress from - PTA Project

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Completely agree on your supporting lineup. Rylance could get in based on his previous win and a fairly likely BAFTA Nom to help him.

Luke Higham said...

And as of this moment, I can't see anything beating Dunkirk or Nolan.

Omar Franini said...

Louis: What is your rating for Kim Cattrall in The Ghost Writer?

A friend of me saw Downsizing in Venice and he told me that the trailer is very misleading since it shows scenes only from the first 40 minutes of the movie.

Luke Higham said...

*Anything/Anyone beating Dunkirk or Nolan

Omar Franini said...

Louis: what do you think about The Florida Project and Call Me By Your Name awards chances? The latter is the best reviewed movie of the year, and i can see both Chalemet and Stuhlbarg/Hammer getting in.

Mitchell Murray said...

(Louis) No Willem Dafoe?

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Finney - 4.5(It's interesting in that the film doesn't really put him in a lot of the larger than life situations for Churchill. His character is fairly low key most of the time, though Finney does make use of his few firebrand moments quite well. Finney overall though finds the right approach in his Churchill, in that it is a great deal of Finney in his Churchill making the mannerisms of the man feel very natural within his performance. My favorite moments of his performance are the low key ones he shares with Redgrave though as the two of them are very effective in portraying the perhaps imperfect yet loving relationship between the two. Finney is particularly good in portraying the most vulnerable moments of Churchill such as in his apology scene to his wife. It's a good performance though perhaps fittingly it feels like a gathering of strength towards sort of prime Churchill.)

Redgrave - 4.5(One of her best performances in terms of creating the supportive wife in a somewhat atypical way. In that she realizes so well mainly between margins that her support is to a point and there is almost this criticism in her interactions with him that often she realizes just through a momentary look. It's terrific work that again realizes the long relationship and she shows her to be always trying to make Churchill the better man rather than simply blindly support him at every point.)

Roache - 4(He's quite good in portraying sort of this direct urgency to the proceedings within his performance. He effectively personifies sort of the paranoia and strain of the upcoming war within his portrayal that effectively realizes both a certain despair but also a passionate will to take action.)

I'd need to re-watch the film to get a good read on the other performances, though I recall Broadbent and Jacobi also being quite good.

I have not.

Well out of series I might watch, Peaky Blinders is kind of next on the docket.

Omar:

3.5

I think The Florida Project could be more American Honey than Moonlight in terms of Academy success, but we'll see.

Call Me By Your Name I think could struggle through the nature of the subject matter. They obviously heavily embraced Moonlight but the age problem in the central relationship could be a sour point for some voters. In addition equal praise to Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer does neither of them any favors when it comes to supporting actor. I would be very surprised if Chalamet made it into lead as very young actors rarely make it into the category.

Mitchell:

With A24 they have had two major successes with Moonlight and Room. If The Florida Project is their major push, which I'm not sure it will be, then I'd say Dafoe has a great chance, if not though he could get that Independent Spirit Award Nomination some critical citations, then that's it. He'd be my number 6 in predictions though and if Last Flag Flying does not deliver I'd say he's probably in a very good position then.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your 1960's and 1970's casts for No Country For Old Men.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

60's:

Sheriff Bell: James Stewart
Anton Chigurh: Lee Van Cleef
Llewelyn Moss: James Coburn
Carl Jean Moss: Shirley Knight
Carson Wells: Charles Bronson

70's:

Sheriff Bell: Gregory Peck
Anton Chigurh: Raul Julia
Llewelyn Moss: Steve McQueen
Carl Jean Moss: Carroll Baker
Carson Wells: Robert Duvall

Luke Higham said...

Louis: Could I have your reasons on who you think will or could be nominated or possibly win for Picture, Lead Actor/Actress and Supporting Actor/Actress.

You've done Director before though Del Toro wasn't in the conversation then so could you give a reason for his inclusion as well.

Robert MacFarlane said...

I actually think Dafoe is our winner for Supporting Actor. Not sure if the film will make any noise outside of that category, but on paper it sounds like something they'd go for (father figure role, against type, older character actor).

Luke Higham said...

Louis: At the moment, I still think Jackman's more likely to get in over Renner.

Charles Heiston said...

I think Renner isn't too close to a nomination. Jackson has the higher chance.

Charles Heiston said...

Louis: Your top 11-20 James Woods & Alec Guinness acting moments.

Robert MacFarlane said...

Yeah, Renner doesn't have a chance, great as he was.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your top 10 movie trailers.

Anonymous said...

Louis: I have my doubts that Carell is going to win.

Louis Morgan said...

Luke:

Picture:

I do think it is still very much an open race, however Dunkirk I think could win since it has the critical praise, the box office, and the fact that its detractors aren't that loud nor do they have enough of a narrative to grasp onto in order to truly hammer the film. It also does not have an obvious rival at the moment.

The Post as long as it delivers seems like it can hit hard on the timely check marks, and the Academy loves Streep and Spielberg so the combination should be hard to resist.

Battle of Sexes again is allowed that "cultural relevance" check mark that sometimes is an additional requirement, and although not everyone loves it, it seems like an easy fit for the main stream crowd pleaser spot.

Last Flag Flying again needs to deliver however it would be an easy way for the Academy to welcome back Linklater after Boyhood, and it also gets that relevance check mark to help it out a bit.

The Darkest Hour I think just needs to work itself in terms of campaign as a worth companion piece rather than trying to take on Dunkirk on order for it to secure its nomination since it certainly received the acclaim it needed.

Stronger is one where the performance will more of carry the film, but there is usually at least two of those in the lineups.

Wind River is over performing box office wise but really at the moment it is the Weinstein Company's only real horse so I would imagine they're going to push it hard.

Director:

I included Del Toro due to the immense praise for the film, I do think he probably was almost there for Pan's Labyrinth, and because I dropped Katherine Bigelow. Although I wouldn't say Detriot is done but the negative narrative against the film seems to be taking a much stronger hold than the praise the film received.

I'm actually not convinced on PTA just because of the divisive nature of Inherent Vice and The Master, however his last collaboration with Day-Lewis hit big with the Academy and that certainly could happen again.

Louis Morgan said...

Actor:

For Lead Actor Oldman simply checks all the boxes overdue veteran, historical role, critical acclaim.

Day-Lewis nuff said.

Gyllenhaal has a truly academy friendly role and they have sort of the snub they need to make up for.

I think they love Cranston given they ease he got in for Trumbo, so if Last Flag Flying delivers I think he could easily get in for the part Nicholson was nominated for.

Yes Renner seems unlikely, yet there can always be the Viggo Mortensen, and again Wind River is Weinstein's only real horse at the moment so the potential is there.

Actress:

Streep nuff said.

Mother is apparently love/hate, however there certainly seems to be more than enough love to get Lawrence as an academy darling another nomination, after all she did get in for Joy.

Stone would be the perfect afterglow nomination, especially since the praise of the film has centered around her. I think she could even win again.

Chastain has the praises and the last two Sorkin leads got in, so I think she could do the same.

Hawkins again needs the film to be a major success given genre bias however she does have the praise in her corner.

Supporting Actor:

In this scenario it is easy to envision Carrell as the winner if both of his films are well received by the academy, then I would imagine they'd opt for the far more sympathetic role which was also previously Oscar nominated. Again though this is lying on the Last Flag Flying delivering.

Mendelsohn's can be seen as overdue for a nomination at the very least, and seems like the type of role for an easy sort bonus nomination for the film.

Elba can be viewed as way overdue for his Beast snub.

They obviously love Shannon, as I believe he was a lone nod twice, and his second nomination was going against the grain of who every other award body was recognizing, so if they love the film he should be able to get easily.

If Dunkirk is a best picture winner Rylance's being recognized would seem right for the overall love of the film, and a natural follow nomination for a recent winner.

Supporting Actress:

Leo's praise for her performance seems to go beyond the film itself and she could go all the way without any additional nominations for the film.

Basically Same as Mendelsohn for Scott Thomas, though those nominations are all the more common for Supporting Actress.

Riseborough and Maslany would both be just extra love for the film as well.

I should say I'm pretty unsure when it comes to supporting actress though.

Calvin Law said...

I'm so sad support for Detroit is dwindling. Poulter deserves a nom. I'm really hoping Oldman delivers though, seeing him with an Oscar would be sweet.

Anonymous said...

Louis: Your thoughts on Josh Brolin's voice work as Thanos.

Louis Morgan said...

Robert:

I'll admit something that gives me a little pause for Dafoe is I wonder if his role is too similair to Mahershala Ali's, from the trailer he looks rather similair, and they might go for a different type of character for the win this time.

Luke:

Well the Greatest Showman could be a pan waiting to happen, though I hope not.

Anonymous:

I think I've given that list before let me have a look.

Charles:

Woods:

11. Goodbye - Killer: Journal of Murder
12. Taking on the case - True Believer
13. Talking to the mainstream press - Salvador
14. Go for a swim - Once Upon a Time in the West
15. "Did you believe me as a real Kwik-e-mart guy" - The Simpsons
16. Prosecution - Chaplin
17. Defending himself - The Onion Field
18. Rejecting programming - Videodrome
19. Roger pressuring him - True Believer
20. "MOTHER FING CHEESE" - The Simpsons

Guinness:

11. Charles Farewell to his family - Cromwell
12. Final Speech - Tunes of Glory
13. I haven't heard that name in a long time - Star Wars
14. Final Meeting with Flambeau - The Detective
15. Marley in hell - Scrooge
16. Radio chaos - The Lavender Hill Mob
17. Imagining the crime - The Detective
18. Visiting his wife - The Horse's Mouth
19. Leaving prison - Little Dorrit
20. Confronting the Duke - Kind Heart and Coronets

Anonymous:

Well this could be my Emma Stone winning for La La Land prediction, or my Liam Neeson winning for Silence prediction from last year, we'll see.

Anonymous:

So far, well really just in Guardians of the Galaxy, it hasn't been all the impressive. It just is him doing a standard evil voice, I hope he has something more in store for Infinity war.