Thursday, 1 January 2015

Fifth Anniversary of Best Actor and Another Official Line up

Well time for my annual prediction of the Academy's Choices for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor
Well will it be one crazy man.
Or the other. Out of the two I'd predict Gyllenhaal since Lou Bloom is the more approachable of the two men, although do so at your own risk. Carell could be the one though since the Academy has loved Bennett Miller's films so far, and if Stephen Daldry has taught us one thing, it is if the academy loves you they usually keep loving you. Of course maybe I am overestimating David Oyelowo's chances but since right now I am predicting him to win at the moment, I better predict that he will be nominated, even though I do think he very well might be snubbed by Bafta. Also Carell and Gyllenhaal could both have a spot, in fact maybe Gyllenhaal is already a lock since I think most of us did not think he'd make it anywhere at first due to the nature of his role, which appears not to be a problem. Also I would not completely count out someone like Bradley Cooper who may have a late surge for American Sniper, or even Ralph Fiennes or Timothy Spall if the academy just ends up loving their films more than expected. One other note before I go to the other category is that someone may end up like Tom Hanks last year, if it's anyone I would have to guess Benedict Cumberbatch is the one who misses out.
Now I guess this is the five. It seems someone should miss out but who is the replacement? Josh Brolin maybe, Miyavi maybe, who knows maybe F. Murray Abraham finally gets his second nomination. I have feeling if one film is loved more by the Academy than the precursors you will see it here, or these just are the nominees. What also does not help is most recently when an actor's sole major support is from BAFTA in this category it often does not carry over such as Hoffman and Broadbent in 2011, and unfortunately Brendan Gleeson and Brad Pitt in 2008. So if anyone else shows up differently history is against him although history can always change.

42 comments:

Michael McCarthy said...

Please let it be Gyllenhaal and not Carell....pleeeeeease.

mcofra7 said...

Agreed. Gyllenhaal gave the best performance that I have seen in a long time. Thank god he started taking more serious projects after Prince of Persia.

mcofra7 said...

GDSAO: thoughts on Isaac in a Most a Violent Year

Matt Mustin said...

I don't really have an opinion on these since I haven't seen any of the major contenders, but I will say I really hope Miyavi isn't nominated. I don't even know why he's in the running, actually, all he did was act vicious. Nothing else.

Anonymous said...

Louis, who do you predict for the female categories? I predict:
Actress:
Aniston
Jones
Moore
Pike
Witherspoon
(although Aniston could be replaced by Adams in my opinion)
Supporting Actress:
Arquette
Chastain
Knightley
Stone
Streep

GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar said...

mcfroa7: Isaac is always a bit of a frustrating actor for me, if only because most of his roles are simply too thinly written, or just not right for him (see Two Faces of January for an example of the latter, Drive and Sucker Punch for the former). But whenever he gets the chance to deliver, he really delivers, like in Inside Llewlyn Davis where he gave by FAR my favourite performance of last year.

ANYWAY, Isaac is well cast as once again just a guy trying to make his way in the world. He doesn't have many Oscar-y scenes (no pun intended) but he works well within the limits of his character. He was particularly good in showing the gradul loss of idealism and was actually quite moving in showing the effects the violence surrounding him, and perpetrated by him, took its toll.

GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar said...

I think Louis' first set of predictions would actually be great. Redmayne, Gyllenhal and Keaton were amazing in their different ways, I thought Cumberbatch was decent enough, and though I'll have to wait and see Oyelowo in a week's time, I've heard great, great things about him.

As for supporting, I am ecastic that Norton and Simmons are the frontrunners though Hawke is my personal choice. I will be very pleased if Duvall is nominated as he is actually a very strong 4.5 from me. As for Ruffalo, I don't quite mind him as upon reflection, he really does give in my opinion the most honest, least manipulative performance in the film.

GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar said...

Anonymous: I know you didn't ask me, but as for Actress, I'm going for:
Adams (seems to have had a late surge in popularity)
Jones (who I'll be overjoyed with a nomination, but a win seems unlikely)
Moore (who deserves to win, even though she isn't my number 1 pick)
Pike (if she doesn't get nominated I'll riot)
Witherspoon (haven't seen her yet so I'll reserve judgement)

I'm praying for a Cotillard nom but that seems rather unlikely.


Best Supporting Actress:
Arquette (she was not the highlight of Boyhood for me, at all, but I'm fine with a nom and I won't hate on her if she wins)
Knightley (I will be overjoyed with an unlikely win, but pleased enough with a nom, Robert I have finally seen Begin Again and even though you didn't like Keira here I'm sure you'll agree with me that we can agree that a nomination will be a very worthy reward for her strong body of work this year)
Streep (who will also be very deserving)
Stone (also solid and deserving of all the praise she's been getting)

For 5th place, I guess Chastain, and I liked her well enough, although if I have to root for someone (it's still a strong enough potential group anyway), then probably Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer, or Carrie Coon in Gone Girl.

This is a very strong year, hopefully the Academy will do the right thing.

GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar said...

@kook160: And by 'you didn't like Keira here' I'm referring to The Imitation Game.

luke higham said...

Happy Fifth Anniversary Louis

Since I want Louis to review every 5 star performance this year, as well as the Academy, getting it right for the second year in a row, I'm hoping for the former lineup and the supporting lineup is pretty much locked in as well.

luke higham said...

Louis: Have you seen Pride yet, if so your thoughts on the film, as well as ratings and thoughts for the cast.

koook160 (Robert MacFarlane) said...

I could plausibly see Brolin getting in over Duvall.

koook160 (Robert MacFarlane) said...

Also, am I the only one who LOVES the picture of Lou Bloom that Louis picked out? That shit-eating grin, man.

RatedRStar said...

Well I have already said what will happen if Jake isnt nominated and Carell replaces him, I also want to see a surprise for supporting actor, I am sick of looking at these same 5 nominees appearing everywhere.

I think there will be a surprise, and thats why for me, the oscar nominations announcement is my christmas day to me =D, more exciting, ya never know what you will get.

luke higham said...

Koook160: Same here on the image for Gyllenhaal.

With Brolin getting in over Duvall, wouldn't bother me at all, since I'm sure he'll be reviewed in the alternates anyway. With Bafta, I'll be very surprised if neither Nighy or Scott made the cut.

koook160 (Robert MacFarlane) said...

Hey Louis, can you give a rating and thoughts on Marco Perella in Boyhood? Because he's the one aspect of the movie I actually agree with the detractors on. (Well, that and "Life... like, whoa man" ending)

RatedRStar said...

Pride will do well at Bafta I think, Redmayne or Cumberbatch will be favorite to win the Bafta for best actor with me thinking Redmayne since he is getting more buzz at the moment.

I mentioned this on FB to Koook160, on Foxcatcher I probably should retract the statement I made when I said that a second viewing wouldnt change my opinion on Foxcatcher, I believe I said that statement at the time for The Master when that first came out as well, so a second viewing may perhaps change my opinion somewhat possibly.

luke higham said...

GDSAO: Your Thoughts on Bale & Edgerton in Exodus, as well as Oyelowo and Brooks in A Most Violent Year.

luke higham said...

GDSAO: And the kid who played the messenger/embodiment of God.

GetDonaldSutherlandAnOscar said...

Luke:

Bale-it's not the most challenging role Bale's ever had and he's in a way kind of wasted as what is essentially the straight man to all the madness surrounding him. Which is perhaps not such a bad thing, considering the narm that enshrouds him. He brings more conviction and power to his lines than the film deserves really, and while I do think he could have pushed a bit further with some of the relationship beats with Ramses, he did well considering he had had to deal with the hammy...

Edgerton-sort of a Guy Pearce deal with this guy. He's a solid leading man and us really dynamic whenever he plays to his strengths. Here he's just poorly cast. He's no Yul Brynner as I believe has been aforementioned. His grief over his son's death is actually decent enough and shows potential, but the hammy OTT villain majority of his performance was horrendous.

Oyelowo-one of the reasons I'm buying into the hype for Selma is because Oyelowo is a very good actor generally, regardless of what Dawn of the Planet of the Apes would have you believe.Here he nicely treads between being a source of morality and a thorn in our 'hero's side. It's a decidedly unshowy role, as all roles besides Chastain's are, but he does better than anyone could have possibly done.

I need to refine my thoughts on Brooks but I quite liked him. And the God kid was fine, but I need to refine my thoughts on him too.

luke higham said...

GDSAO: It was Rise, not Dawn.

What size was Brooks's role, because I'm trying to predict what the final alternate lineup will be.

RatedRStar said...

The only major thing I saw David Oyelowo where he had a huge part in was the spy series Spooks =D and he was quite good as a heroic ill fated officer.

luke higham said...

RatedRStar: For me, Oyelowo was the best thing in The Butler, which I completely detested and like Ejiofor before him, it seems that given the chance with a leading role, he'll thrive with it.

Anonymous said...

@GDSAO: Specific thoughts on Chastain? She looks great.

JamDenTel said...

Good God, there is no reason whatsoever for Duvall to be in the conversation, other than the fact that he's Robert Duvall. The film was mediocre at best and the performance is merely okay. If the Academy goes with him I will be quite upset.

Also, I think we can give up on Miyavi's chances. I would say we should give up on Unbroken's chances (outside of the tech categories) as well, but people seem determined to recognize that film because...it's the kind of film that gets recognized.

luke higham said...

JamDenTel: Yes, the film was shit, but I'm sorry, Duvall was great with the material he had, and Louis said that he would save him for a review regardless.

luke higham said...

JamDenTel: You're pretty much in the minority on that one.

Louis Morgan said...

Anonymous:

I echo both of your predictions, although I think if one misses out it might not be Aniston. I'm not trying to purposefully scare anyone here, but I think Pike could actually miss out if Gone Girl just does not click with voters. What helps all five though is that the sixth spot contenders don't seem that strong at the moment as Big Eyes just doesn't seem to have too much passion behind it, and Cotillard has too small of a film in addition she will perhaps suffer from performance confusion with The Immigrant.

For Supporting Actress I think Dern has an outside chance of upsetting anyone that's not Arquette, if the Academy loves Wild as much as they did Dallas Buyers Club.

Luke:

Pride - (Well as British Miner's Strike films go I preferred it over Brassed Off and Billy Elliot. Well that is to say I enjoyed it, although I guess I did not love. It's fairly predictable but in taking this route it does it rather. It nicely lets the emotional scenes play out in fairly quiet and more effective fashion rather than hammering so hard like Brassed Off did. My only major complaint is the villains were a little too thin even for a film like this, I mean come on Derren Nesbitt in Victim had more depth than that. They might as well have the prejudice been an unseen force, it may have been more effective. Nevertheless though I certainly enjoyed the film)

Cast:

I suppose I'll save Nighy.

Staunton - 4(I found her entertaining enough her in the role you'd expect her to play here. Well she does an appropriately good job with though having the needed comedic timing, while always bringing the passion along with it)

West - 3(Thankfully he did not overplay his role. He never made too much of an impact for me, but he made his character's flamboyance always felt honest to the role)

Scott - 3.5(I felt his arc to be somewhat muted but never in a way where I thought it was his fault. He gives a very quiet performance though but rather haunting in his portrayal of his character's ongoing emotional distress)

MacKay - 3(A bit of a thankless role for the part as he's purposefully suppose to be a pretty thin character. I thought he handled what he was given well enough though)

Gilgun - 3(The smallest role out of the main group, since he never seems to go with them. He's technically always good though and the one scene where a bit more is asked of him he does deliver)

Schnetzer - 4(A challenging role since this type of character can easily lead to either overacting or becoming too one note. Schnetzer's carefully avoids any of these mistakes. He's charming without becoming too much and makes the conviction of his character seem genuine by still bringing the right amount of weakness in the resolve)

Dolan - 2.5(Took the token lesbian role thing a little too far as that's all there really is to her role. He's not bad, but never overcomes the nature of her role)

Gunning - 3.5(What she does best is kinda differentiate her character's passion from the others in a weird but interesting way. She's suggests her character's life into politics as the way she plays her scenes of attack they have this whole official style to them)

Considine - 4(A really solid display of underplaying a role. Considine stands out by kinda showing his character to be an average guy who is taking up this cause. Considine brings the fitting passion within a limit that fits his character, and as well a charm in just the unassuming quality of the man)

Louis Morgan said...


Robert:

Well I'm glad we at least agree on two things about Boyhood then. Although I have to say if those were the exact lines at the end of the film and Keanu Reeves came out of nowhere to deliver them I think I'd have to love Boyhood. Anyway.....

Perella - 1(That Sag ensemble list is bogus, were they too embarrassed to list all the performers, because Perella definitely should have been included. He's terrible in the role. Although the time is kinda there Perella does not give any sort of an arc to his character going from the "charming" professor to the abusive jerk. Worse than that though his performance as the abusive jerk was way too over the top, and the way he played it they might as well have gotten Terry O'Quinn because then at least it would have been awesome)

JamDenTel:

In regards to Unbroken, don't forget about Extremely Loud Incredibly Close, although that did have the Daldry factor. The concept may be enough to get into the same categories that Extremely Loud got into Supporting Actor, and Picture. I'm not betting on that though because for a sadistic villain to get in they usually need more praise than Miyavi has gotten.

RatedRStar said...

The Cinema Snob reviewed Unbroken recently, and Miyavi was heavily criticized for his performance lol =D.

Also I wont mind Duvall getting nominated, there has been lots of circumstances where bad films have had good supporting nominations, like Von Sydow and Kenneth Branagh.

RatedRStar said...

Oh Louis I am so glad you liked Pride, and the fact you liked Nighy and Schnetzer, in fact the whole cast was quite likable, the villains don't really matter cause they are like the same villains you see in real life nowaday.

Homophobic people tend to either go the pervert way or the religious way and this chose the pervert way.

JackiBoyz said...

@RatedRStar: How would you rank all of the Oscar Contenders for the four main acting categories?

Anonymous said...

@Louis: I really hope Pike doesn't miss out, I loved her performance and I thought she was simply dynamite. She has to be nominated.
I also agree on Perella, simply awful.

Anyway guys I've just seen Big Eyes. Quite liked it, it was good, but the last third of the movie isn't quite as good as the rest. I'd give a 4.5 to Adams, a subtle and delicate performance that is extremely touching. As for Waltz, he was good but he's occasionally too cartoonish and sometimes he seems a caricature. I'd give him a 3.5 as he still brought a lot of charm and energy to the role. None of the other members impressed me, although it was nice to see Terence Stamp in something.

luke higham said...

I'm really glad you liked Nighy, as well as Schnetzer, Louis, although that last review spot is definitely between him & Kebbell, the other 4 reviews being Poulter, Brolin, Armitage and Fassbender. If I had to choose for that last spot, it would probably be Kebbell.

luke higham said...

RatedRStar, Kevin & Michael Patison: What did you think of the Tottenham-Chelsea Result.

RatedRStar said...

@JackiBoyz, This is in order.

Best Actor:
Jake Gyllenhaal (5)
Michael Keaton (5)
Ralph Fiennes (4.5)
Eddie Redmayne (4.5)
Timothy Spall (4.5)
Benedict Cumberbatch (4.5)
Steve Carell (Second viewing required)
I havent seen Oyelowo or Issac yet

Best Actress:
Rosamund Pike (4.5)
Julianne Moore (4.5)
Felicity Jones (4)
I haven't seen Adams, Aniston or Witherspoon yet.

Best Supporting Actor:
Ethan Hawke (4.5)
J.K Simmons (4.5)
Edward Norton (4)
Robert Duvall (4)
Miyavi (3)
Mark Ruffalo (Second viewing required)
I haven't seen Wilkinson or Waltz yet

Best Supporting Actress:
Emma Stone (4)
Patricia Arquette (3.5. sorry Louis lol)
Keira Knightley (3)
I havent seen Chastain, Streep or Dern yet.

RatedRStar said...

@Luke: Well, it was a great game, the best of the season I think so far, with great performances by Kane, Hazard and Chadli, I thought Chelseas defense was quite poor from Matic, Terry and Cahill especially, they really struggled against Kane, Spurs simply took their chances as well.

luke higham said...

Best Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal - 5
Ralph Fiennes - 5
Timothy Spall - 5
Eddie Redmayne - 4.5
Steve Carell - 4 (Improved on Second Viewing)

Best Supporting Actor:
Ethan Hawke - 4.5
Robert Duvall - 4.5
Mark Ruffalo - 4 (Improved on Second Viewing)
Miyavi - 3

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard - 5
Rosemund Pike - 5
Julianne Moore - 4.5
Felicity Jones - 4.5

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette - 3

Michael McCarthy said...

I'm not gonna lie, I highly doubt Carell's going to improve for me on rewatch like he's seemed to for some of you guys, I'm pretty set on him as well as the film no matter what Louis says. I personally don't think he'll get higher than a 4 from Louis (hopefully less), but I've been wrong before. The only thing a rewatch might do for me is improve Tatum's rating.

RatedRStar said...

Oh I wont hold back on Foxcatcher if my opinion doesn't change on it I assure you I will be even more angry about it because then I will 100 percent not change my mind lol.

luke higham said...

My thoughts on the film haven't changed much on rewatch, although, as you can see I did appreciate the acting more this time around. Tatum is a 4.5 for me though.

Also my thoughts on Unbroken from recollection have lessened, O'Connell's relatively the same for me, although now, Gleeson is a low 3.5, Miyavi a 3, Wittrock a 2.5 and Hedlund's a 2.

Louis Morgan said...

RatedRStar: I should clarify slightly. I did not have a problem with the motivation of the characters just I think even less time should have been spent on them since they were so thin. This made the scene at the end where one was there to offer support at the pride parade meaningless.